After Saturday’s busy day of college hoops action, we have another large Sunday slate of DFS CBB - 10 games in all on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Unlike the mid-week slates, today’s matchups get started at 12 pm ET and extend all the way to the 8 pm ET tip of Washington State-Oregon. Building lineups with this schedule in mind can be tricky. On the one hand, you want some exposure to the “late-night hammer” game to give you an edge on other players’ lineups. Yet, there aren’t many attractive plays from either side in that matchup and you could just fade it entirely.
There are a few value plays in the 4, 5 and 6 pm ET games, though, as you’ll see below. You can still get an edge but you’ll have to monitor starting lineups and be ready to pivot if need be all throughout the day. It’ll force you to be more invested all day and maybe cause a few late lineup sweats.
With a specific eye towards recent game trends, favorable and/or tough matchups, rotations and KenPom’s advanced stats, we’ll outline the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS CBB lineups today for both sites. We’ll also point out the games to generally target and fade today based on pace of play, spread and implied point totals as predicted by KenPom.
Games To Target:
Georgetown @ St. John’s - 12 pm ET (STJN -9 / 161 Implied Total)
Seton Hall @ Villanova - 2:30 pm ET (VU -8 / 144 Implied Total)
Iowa @ Minnesota - 5 pm ET (IOWA -1 / 153 Implied Total)
Games To Fade:
Cincinnati @ Temple - 12 pm ET (CIN -3 / 135 Implied Total)
Houston @ Tulsa - 2 pm ET (HOU -7 / 135 Implied Total)
Guards
Carsen Edwards - PUR ($9,600 DK / $8,500 FD) - Whenever Purdue is on the slate, the question becomes: “Do I pay up for Carsen Edwards or fade him today?” If you did roster him the past four games, you got at least 42 DK points in each outing and your lineups likely cashed out because of it. Yet, if you rolled Edwards out when he faced Michigan State earlier this season, he was a lineup-killer with just 10 DK points. It’ll be interesting to see what Edwards’ ownership is today considering these two trends. On a large slate like this 10-gamer with that previous dud in mind, people may stay away from the Purdue standout and look elsewhere. Still others may notice he’s been on an offensive tear lately and simply trust that Edwards is at home this time around. For cash games, it’s tough to pay up - but he could pay off in a big way for GPP contests. Keep in mind, that previous game vs. Michigan State was easily Edwards’ worst shooting performance of his outstanding senior season.
Justin Simon - STJN ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD) - First things first, we definitely want some exposure to this game today because it features two teams with top 50 tempos in the country with the highest expected point total of the slate. Plus, this is a rematch of the 97-94 overtime thriller earlier this month that resulted in a St. John’s win on the road. Now onto Justin Simon. He presents a very affordable option to get a share of that St. John’s team without paying the expensive price tag for Shamorie Ponds. Before last week’s game vs. Butler, Simon averaged close to 37 DK points over a four-game span - including a 40-burger in that first Georgetown game when he put up 14 points, nine rebounds, six assists, two blocks and two steals. That performance was a snapshot of what makes Simon such a good DFS play - especially at this price - because of the numbers he provide across every stat category while playing big minutes for St. John’s.
Matt McQuaid - MSU ($4,600 DK / $5,500 FD) - With Josh Langford still out, McQuaid continues to see an uptick in usage and shot volume as the second-best scoring guard for Michigan State behind Cassius Winston. McQuaid became a value play for us when Langford first hurt his ankle in December, but a string of dud outings earlier this month likely turned people away. In the past two games, though, the senior has seen 10+ shot attempts in both - including eight and nine shots from three-point range, respectively. Coincidentally, Purdue’s defense does not defend the perimeter well and allows nearly 40% of opponents’ points from three-point range - the 17th-worst mark in the nation. This sets up nicely for McQuaid to take advantage of defenses keying on Winston and leaving him open from deep.
David Nichols - FSU ($4,200 DK / $4,200 FD) - Earlier in the season, Nichols was a value play for us when Phil Cofer missed time for Florida State. With Cofer out the last two games, Nichols saw extended minutes and usage yet again and even hit 4-of-5 from three-point range and returned nearly 25 DK points vs. Clemson on Tuesday. Cofer (foot) could miss today’s game as well, making Nichols a very attractive value play at this cheap price. His possession usage and shots share are actually second on the team to big man Mfiondu Kabengele. It’s clear that when Nichols gets his playing time, he has the green light to shoot from deep as he adds a different offensive dimension to a Florida State offense that’s been running heavily through Kabengele lately.
Other Guards to Consider:
Phil Booth - VU ($8,400 DK / $8,300 FD)
Quincy McKnight - SHU ($6,700 DK / $5,900 FD)
James Akinjo - GTWN ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD)
Dayon Griffin - UCF ($3,600 DK / $3,900 FD)
Forwards
Jessie Govan - GTWN ($9,300 DK / $8,400 FD) - Govan’s opponent tonight, St. John’s, has an excellent offense and scores a ton - BUT they have the 10th-worst offensive rebounding rate in the country. That’s 343rd out of 353 total rated teams, per KenPom’s metrics. On the other hand, Govan is excellent on the defensive boards (4th in the conference) and has four double-doubles in the past seven games - including 25-and-10 in Georgetown’s first meeting with St. John’s. The senior put up over 50 DK points in that overtime loss as it was clear no St. John’s player could match up with him down low for plenty of defensive rebounds and easy put-backs on the other end. Expect more of the same today against an undersized opponent.
Eric Paschall - VU ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD) - Paschall has been remarkably consistent during Big East play as Villanova’s 1B offensive option with Phil Booth as the 1A. During ‘Nova’s first six conference games, Paschall has put up at least 35 DK points in every outing and is averaging 21 points, eight rebounds and 14 shot attempts per game. He and Booth touch the ball nearly every time down the court as the offense runs through them. Paschall also brings three-point upside as he’s shooting 46% from deep on 5-7 attempts per game - he even launched 10 shots from three-point range in last week’s win over Butler. Paschall likely deserves a higher price tag on both sites and he’s as safe as you can get at forward today.
Paul Reed - DPU ($7,200 DK / $7,300 FD) & Femi Olujobi - DPU ($6,900 DK / $6,300 FD) - For how dominant Reed and Olujobi have been lately manning DePaul’s frontcourt, both are in play today at affordable prices vs. Providence. Over the last four games, Reed has three double-doubles and is averaging 19.3 real points and 39+ DK points per outing. For Olujobi, he’s averaging 21.8 real points and 37+ DK points with two double-doubles during that four-game span. DePaul’s offense has become more balanced with the emergence of Reed and Olujobi - two rebounding workhorses ready for put-backs to complement their two stellar guards in Max Strus and Eli Cain. You can definitely roster both Reed and Olujobi in the same lineup as both have proven they can be productive on the floor with each other. If you’re picking one, though, Olujobi is the way to go for cash games for the salary-savings while Reed is a better GPP play with his higher rebounding upside.
Eric Curry - MINN ($4,400 DK / $4,600 FD) - Since returning from injury in December, Curry has exclusively come off the bench for Minnesota - that is, until he got the start last game in lieu of Daniel Oturu. The sophomore saw 30 minutes in the two-point loss to Michigan and may have shown enough to warrant yet another start today vs. Iowa at home. In that spot start, Curry scored just five real points but he added nine rebounds, three assists and two blocks to give him nearly 25 DK points. With Minnesota tipping later in the day at 5 pm ET, be ready to pivot off Curry if his name is not among the starters - but if he does get his second start of the season, he presents a nice value play at a forward position devoid of cheap options worth rostering.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Jordan Murphy - MINN ($9,200 DK / $8,700 FD)
Louis King - ORE ($6,700 DK / $6,100 FD)
Mfiondu Kabengele - FSU ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Justin Simon, STJN - $6,600
G: Matt McQuaid, MSU - $4,600
G: Quincy McKnight, SHU - $6,700
F: Femi Olujobi, DPU - $6,900
F: Jessie Govan, GTWN - $9,300
F: Eric Paschall, VU - $7,800
U: Eric Curry, MINN - $4,400
U: Dayon Griffin, UCF - $3,600
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Carsen Edwards, PUR - $8,500
G: Matt McQuaid, MSU - $5,500
G: James Akinjo, GTWN - $6,600
G: David Nichols, FSU - $4,200
F: Femi Olujobi, DPU - $6,300
F: Eric Paschall, VU - $8,000
F: Eric Curry, MINN - $4,600
U: Louis King, ORE - $6,100