Get over Hump Day with some DFS College Basketball!
DraftKings has a 13-game slate, while FanDuel has an 11-gamer. The two matchups only on DK (Connecticut-Tulsa and Butler-DePaul) are both in play to target as close games with every team projected to score 70+. We’ll definitely have some entertaining, close games yet again with five ranked teams in action and 11 of the 13 matchups predicted to be within seven points, according to KenPom. On both sites, we have the #LateNightHammer game of UCF-Wichita State - making late lineup pivots a little more interesting.
Although the player pool is massive on the larger slate tonight, the high-priced plays are at a premium with a ton of middle-tier and value guards and forwards we want to target.
As always, with a particular focus on KenPom’s advanced metrics and overall recent game trends, we’ll point out the teams to target as a whole before breaking down the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS lineups today. The point spreads and over/under’s below are based on KenPom’s predictions for that matchup.
If you have any questions or comments on the day’s slate or anything college basketball-related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dan_servodidio or in the Fantasy Alarm CBB chat room.
Games To Target
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt - 7 pm ET (VAND -5 / 149 Implied Total)
Butler @ DePaul - 8:30 pm ET (BUT -2 / 142 Implied Total) - DK Only
Minnesota @ Illinois - 9 pm ET (MIN -1 / 147 Implied Total)
UCF @ Wichita State - 10 pm ET (UCF -4 / 134 Implied Total)
Games To Fade
Kansas State @ Oklahoma - 7 pm ET (OU -7 / 125 Implied Total)
Iowa State @ Texas Tech - 9 pm ET (TTU -7 / 129 Implied Total)
Houston @ SMU - 9 pm ET (HOU -2 / 134 Implied Total)
Alabama @ Missouri - 9 pm ET (MISS -1 / 141 Implied Total)
Guards
Kamar Baldwin - BUT ($8,200 DK Only) - As you’ll notice, there really aren’t many expensive guard options worth paying up for tonight. On DK, though, Baldwin represents the best of those and at an affordable price considering his recent play. The Butler stud is getting large shot volume - almost 15 shots per contest in the past ten games - and has really picked up his DFS production since Big East play began. During that four-game stretch vs. conference opponents, Baldwin hasn’t scored less than 30 DK points and even reached a new ceiling of 51.75 DK points vs. Creighton. He’s also in a pace-up spot on the road vs. DePaul where Butler is only predicted to win by two, per KenPom. Baldwin will have the ball in his hands a ton in the second half - either dishing out assists or scoring it on his own.
Ayo Dosunmo - IL ($6,800 DK / $7,800 FD) - Illinois may be the worst Big Ten team on paper, but the team plays extremely fast and actually keeps pace offensively until blowing it in the second half. Dosunmu is the best pure scorer for the Fighting Illini - averaging 20.5 points on 15 shots over the last four games. During that span, the freshman shooter had two outings of 40+ DK points as he’s taken over the keys to the offense from Trent Frazier lately. KenPom only has Minnesota winning by one on the road in Illinois with both teams scoring 70 or more. Dosunmu will be taking a ton of shots once again - even if he’s playing for a terrible team.
BJ Taylor - UCF ($6,800 DK / $6,900 FD) - Both Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins ($7,300 DK / $7,400) are in play tonight as they headline UCF’s offensive attack on the road vs. Wichita State. The reason we like Taylor a bit more (outside of the price discount) is because of his team-leading usage and ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line. Taylor has shot 12 free throws in each of the last three conference games as he’s been actively driving to the rim more with a shaky 34.5% from three-point range. When playing guards on the road, it’s always safer to roster the players who can drive to the basket and get to the free throw line rather than relying on the three-pointer. Taylor is the definition of that guy - with upside to hit some shots from deep too.
Wendell Mitchell - TA&M ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD) - Mitchell is a strong cash play at this price considering his usage, playing time and shot volume has really increased since joining Texas A&M’s starting rotation six games ago. During this stretch, the junior is logging 30+ minutes at the point and shooting guard spots and put up 30+ DK points three separate times. More importantly, Mitchell was the Aggies’ leading scorer in a road win vs. Alabama and has become a nice complementary scorer to Savion Flagg and T.J. Starks.
Davide Moretti - TTU ($4,900 DK / $6,200 FD) - This Iowa State-Texas Tech game is one we want to fade overall with a low implied point total and two slow-paced teams facing off - but Moretti may be the one play who can really return value in this matchup. Since Big 12 play began, Moretti’s minutes, usage and DFS production have seen a noticeable increase. During this four-game stretch of conference action, the sophomore sharpshooter has played no less than 32 minutes and launched at least five three-pointers in each game. He also 5x-ed his DK salary in all four of those games. Moretti makes for a strong cash game play today - especially on DraftKings with the salary discount.
Other Guards to Consider:
Amir Coffey - MIN ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)
Christian Vital - CONN ($6,600 DK Only)
Christen Cunningham - LOU ($5,700 DK / $6,600 FD)
Dupree McBrayer - MINN ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)
Forwards
Jordan Murphy - MINN ($9,800 DK / $8,500 FD) - Murphy may be the safest pay-up option on tonight’s slate - guard and forward positions combined. Illinois funnels opposing teams’ scoring to the inside and rebounds very poorly on the defensive glass - but stats benefit Murphy’s skill set a ton. The senior anchors a Minnesota offense that scores from the post inside primarily as opposed to from the three-point line. Plus, the Golden Gophers are 20th in the nation in offensive rebounding which sets up nicely for Murphy to get an easy double-double tonight - something he’s five times in the last ten games. It seems the only thing holding back Murphy from reaching 50 DFS points tonight would be foul trouble - which is still unlikely.
Kristian Doolittle - OU ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD) - Although this game should be low-scoring with fewer possessions than usual, Doolittle presents a very interesting one-off play on Oklahoma. The 6’7” junior has a favorable individual matchup tonight as Kansas State does not have the size at the power forward spot to rebound and compete with Doolittle on the glass. However, because of excellent DFS production lately, he will likely be highly owned in all formats with casual players chasing game logs. The 41.5 DK points last time out is very eye-catching though - as should be his 25.5 average DFS points in the five games prior to his breakout. Doolittle may be highly owned tonight, but he’s still a strong cash game play at this price.
Keyshawn Bryant - SCAR ($4,800 DK / $4,600 FD) - When South Carolina is on the slate, Bryant is always in play because of his continued cheap price with near-guaranteed 20-25 minutes of solid DFS production. His salary may be the highest it’s been all season, but the offensive efficiency makes rostering Bryant worth it. What we like about the freshman is his offensive usage when he’s on the floor, despite playing less than 30 minutes as a regular starter. Bryant’s shot rate is the highest on the team and his possession usage is among the top 3 - so when he’s on the court, he’s touching the ball a ton and putting up his shots enough to return value at this price.
Jordan Tucker - BUT ($4,600 DK Only) - Ever since Tucker began cracking Butler’s rotations, we’ve been waiting for that smash-value game - it finally came last time out vs. Xavier. The Duke transfer played a season-high in minutes (25) and put up 12 points, eight rebounds, two steals and two assists - good for 29.5 DK points. Tucker’s playing time has slowly increased in each game this year and we can skeptically assume he’s locked into 20-25 minutes now as one of the better bench options for Butler. Tucker can easily 5x or 6x his salary if his usage continues.
Auburn Forwards - All three of Chuma Okeke ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD), Austin Wiley ($6,200 DK / $6,000 FD) and Anfernee McLemore ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD) are interesting GPP plays tonight. The matchup is favorable for all three tonight, but it’s really a roll of the dice which will have the big statistical game. Lately, all three have been productive on different nights as they others suffer when one of them goes off. Texas A&M gets their shot blocked a ton (22nd-worst in the country), while Auburn blocks shots extremely well (37th-best). Plus, Auburn’s forwards make up one of the best offensive rebounding units in the conference while A&M is simply terrible on the defensive boards. This matchups sets up for one of these three to smash value tonight, it’s just tough to predict which one it will be.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Dwayne Sutton - LOU ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD)
Mike Watkins - PSU ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD) - If Tyler Cook sits for Iowa
Evan Cole - GT ($4,100 DK / $4,700 FD)
Yanni Wetzell - VAND ($3,900 DK / $4,600 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Wendell Mitchell, TA&M - $5,200
G: Amir Coffey, MINN - $6,700
G: BJ Taylor, UCF - $6,800
F: Dwayne Sutton, LOU - $6,300
F: Jordan Murphy, MINN - $9,800
F: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $4,800
U: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $4,600
U: Christen Cunningham, LOU - $5,700
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Wendell Mitchell, TA&M - $5,700
G: Christen Cunningham, LOU - $6,600
G: BJ Taylor, UCF - $6,900
G: Dupree McBrayer, MINN - $6,300
F: Kristian Doolittle, OU - $6,500
F: Jordan Murphy, MINN - $8,500
F: Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR - $4,600
U: Evan Cole, GT - $4,700