We finally have our first Saturday free of college football and FILLED with some intense conference college basketball action!
FanDuel and DraftKings both have massive 14-game slates tipping off at 12 pm ET today. There’s tons of common matchups across both sites with just two games differing between them - Boston College-Virginia Tech (12 ET) and Utah-Arizona are only available on FD, while Florida State-Virginia and Georgia-Tennessee are unique to DK.
One important thing to keep in mind when building DFS CBB rosters today - teams will begin to tighten their rotations and play their starters larger minutes (and the bench players less) as the level of competition rises and games become closer with more on the line for league play. Possession share and shot usage become clearer for both the top-tier studs and role players on each team.
As always, with a particular focus on KenPom’s advanced metrics and recent game trends, we’ll point out the teams to target as a whole before breaking down the guards and forwards to prioritize in your DFS lineups today. The point spreads and over/under’s below are based on KenPom’s predictions for that matchup.
If you have any questions or comments on the day’s slate or anything college basketball-related, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dan_servodidio or in the Fantasy Alarm CBB chat room.
Games To Target
Creighton at Butler - 12 pm ET (BUT -2 / 150 implied total)
St. John’s @ Georgetown - 1 pm ET (SJU -1 / 163 implied total)
Kentucky @ Alabama - 1 pm ET (UK -4 / 148 implied total)
Games to Fade
UCF @ Connecticut - 12 pm ET (UCF -2 / 144 implied total)
Kansas State @ Texas Tech - 2 pm ET (TTU -10 / 116 implied total)
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech - 2 pm ET (GT -8 / 136 implied total)
Florida State @ Virginia - 3 pm ET (UVA -11 / 131 implied total)
Guards
Christian James - OU ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD) - We’ve suggested James a ton in these playbooks and he has not disappointed. The 6’4” senior has five double-doubles in the last six games as the Sooners’ best pure scoring option AND best rebounder despite the guard position tag. On the defensive end, James literally hangs around the basket and waits for missed shots to rack up rebounds. On offense, James is extremely active as a shooter but routinely crashes the boards to follow his and teammates’ shots. Even better, his rebounding upside increases with Jamuni McNeace still limited with an ankle injury.
Mustapha Heron - STJN ($7,300 DK / $7,700 FD) - This St. John’s-Georgetown game is one we definitely want exposure to today with how much offensive firepower is expected - KenPom predicts both teams will score at least 80 points. If you don’t want to pay up for Shamorie Ponds ($10,500 DK / $8,900 FD), Heron is the next-best option for St. John’s. He’s put up 32+ DK points in each of the last three games as teams focus more on limiting Ponds’ scoring. Ponds is always a threat to put up 40-50 fantasy points, but Heron has been a reliable second option on the offensive end for the Red Storm and provides a nice cash lineup play at this salary.
T.J. Gibbs - ND ($6,700 DK / $6,700 FD) - Any time Syracuse is on the slate, we always want to target opposing teams’ 3-point shooters as that is the ideal way to beat ‘Cuse’s famous zone defense. This sets up perfectly for Gibbs, who is Notre Dame’s best shooter from deep lately, hitting 50% of his 24 3-pointers over the last three games. Gibbs should see a ton of shot volume today - especially from beyond the arc - as Notre Dame will need to beat the zone with their guard play.
Maliek White - PROV ($4,700 DK / $6,000 FD) - White has been a very nice value play since entering Providence’s starting lineup four games ago. During that stretch, White has 5x-ed his current salary three times and has come close to 7x twice. His price on DraftKings is still way too low for how much playing time he’s getting - about 30 minutes per game - and his increase in shot volume - 22 shot attempts over the last two outings. White is a very safe cash play on DK in what should be an up-and-down game dominated by the guard play. It’s likely more optimal to fade White on FanDuel, though.
Greg Malinowski - GTWN ($4,600 DK / $4,300 FD) & Mac McClung - GTWN ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD) - This is one key injury to monitor right up to Georgetown’s 1 pm ET tip. McClung missed the last two games with an ankle injury and Malinowski has been starting at shooting guard in his place. In those two spot starts, the senior Malinowski played 31 and 32 minutes, shot 8-of-15 from 3-point range, and put up 32 and 44.75 DK points, respectively. If McClung sits again, Malinowski is a strong value play in an uptempo game vs. St. John’s. If McClung does dress (and hopefully start), his price is way too cheap today considering the shot volume he was getting before the injury. If he’s starting, lock McClung in your lineups on DK. His price on FD is a little tougher to fit in.
Ashton Hagans - UK ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD) - Hagans remains way too cheap as the starting point guard for Kentucky - a role he’s locked down in each of the last four games after beginning the season on the bench. All you need from Hagans at this price to return value (especially on DraftKings) is 15-20 fantasy points - something he’s done in five of the last six games, including 32 and 23.5 DK points in the last two outings. With 11 steals in the past two games, Hagans has earned his playing time largely due to strong defensive play. Expect 25-30 minutes at the starting point guard position again today for the freshman as Kentucky begins conference play on the road.
Other Guards to Consider:
Shamorie Ponds - STJN ($10,500 DK / $8,900 FD)
Kamar Baldwin - BUT ($8,000 DK / $7,400 FD)
Phil Booth - NOVA ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
Michael Devoe - GT ($5,300 DK / $5,300 FD)
Riley Norris - ALA ($3,800 DK / $3,100 FD)
Forwards
Luke Maye - UNC ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD) - Maye is talented enough to deserve a salary closer to $10,000 than where he currently sits - in fact, he has been that expensive earlier this season and could once again get back there. His overall value this year has been hurt because of how deep UNC runs its rotations and how much usage the Tar Heel guards claim. However, Pittsburgh’s defense tends to limit offensive production from opposing guards and funnel the ball down low - setting up nicely for Maye to smash value at this affordable price. Pitt also is a poor defensive rebounding team, whereas Maye headlines UNC’s elite rebounding unit (28th in the nation on the offensive boards). Maye has seen a fantasy floor of 25-30 points, but his ceiling is a realistic 40+ points - a number he reached vs. Gonzaga earlier this year.
Eric Paschall - NOVA ($7,300 DK / $7,000 FD) - Paschall has been a beast for Villanova since Big East play started two games ago. Against UConn and DePaul, the senior scored 21 and 24 real points, respectively, on 52% shooting from the field including 8-for-15 from 3-point range. He doesn’t rebound a ton, but has grabbed six boards in each of those last two games. Providence does not have a ton of size (or talent) at forward - setting up nicely for Paschall to dominate in the paint and on pick-and-rolls with Booth at the point.
Martin Krampelj - CRE ($5,200 DK / $5,300 FD) - Butler’s interior defense is notably worse than their outside defending, which makes Krampelj pretty attractive at this price for cash and GPP lineups. Krampelj has 5x-ed this price tag in three of the last four games as he’s become more active and efficient offensively - shooting 72% on 37 shot attempts over the last four outings. The Creighton big has also started rebounding better than his season-long numbers suggest - grabbing at least eight boards in three of the last four. Take note that the outlier game during Krampelj’s stellar four-game stretch was Creighton’s 50-point blowout vs. Coe College.
Jordan Tucker - BUT ($4,700 DK / $3,000 FD) - We suggested Tucker for Wednesday’s slate when he was $4,500 on DK and he gave us 17.5 DK points. With just a slight price increase on that site, we’re going back to well again today. On FanDuel where he is min-price, Tucker is a lock in all formats. Tucker’s minutes have gradually increased in each of his five games this season as Butler continues to work the Duke transfer into rotations. Butler has struggled to find scoring this season but Tucker has been one of the few bright spots when he gets playing time. In Wednesday’s Big East opener, Tucker put up 11 shots - seven from 3-point range - in 19 minutes. All were season-highs as his usage continues to rise. Eventually, Tucker will smash his salary as he starts to get 20+ minutes and double-digit shot attempts regularly.
Other Forwards to Consider:
Bruno Fernando - UMD ($9,200 DK / $8,700 FD)
Jessie Govan - GTWN ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD)
Kerry Blackshear Jr. - VT ($6,900 FD Only)
Juwan Durham - ND ($5,700 DK / $5,800 FD)
Example Lineup on DraftKings:
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $4,100
G: Mustapha Heron, STJN - $7,300
G: Greg Malinowski, GTWN - $4,600
F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $5,200
F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $4,700
F: Jessie Govan, GTWN - $8,600
U: Christian James, OU - $8,300
U: Phil Booth, NOVA - $7,200
Example Lineup on FanDuel:
G: Ashton Hagans, UK - $4,800
G: Shamorie Ponds, STJN - $8,900
G: Greg Malinowski, GTWN - $4,300
G: Christian James, OU - $8,100
F: Martin Krampelj, CRE - $5,300
F: Jordan Tucker, BUT - $3,000
F: Bruno Fernando, UMD - $8,700
U: T.J. Gibbs, ND - $6,700