DFS MLB Stacks: May 8
Brett Talley takes a look at the MLB match-ups and picks a few spots where you may want to stack hitters in Tuesday's DFS contests.
Below are stacks to consider for Tuesday’s MLB DFS action.
The Rockies are back at home this week after a nine-game road trip, so of course the Rox and their opponent, the Angels, fall into the chalk category tonight. It will be right-hander Jon Gray going for the home team and left-hander Andrew Heaney going for the visitors.
The Rockies have the highest implied run total in Vegas. There are four Rox with a wRC+ vs. LHP of 127 or higher dating back to the beginning of last season. When the Rockies last faced a left-handed starter on Saturday, those four hit 1-3-4-5 in the order. Those four are Charlie Blackmon , Nolan Arenado , Trevor Story and Chris Iannetta . That’s an extremely obvious stack, and you’ll probably want at least a mini-stack from those four in cash games.
On the other side there are four Angels that have been above average hitters against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season, Mike Trout , Justin Upton , Zack Cozart and Andrelton Simmons . Trout and Upton tend to hit 2-3 in the lineup, while Cozart and Simmons hit further down the order, usually 6-7. Both pairs present mini-stack options for cash games.
It should be noted that both Heaney and Gray have pitched quite well this season, despite what their ERAs are. Heaney has a 3.04 xFIP and Gray isn’t far behind at 3.43. Both have strikeout and walk rates that are safely better than average. Because of Coors you’ll still probably need some exposure to these lineups in cash games, but it’s easier to make the case to fade Coors in GPPs when the pitching in the game is solid.
The only team with an implied run total over five that isn’t playing in Colorado is a team with another hitter-friendly park, Texas. The Rangers will host the Tigers who will send right-handed Mike Fiers to the mound. Fiers has struggled in five starts this season with a 5.00 ERA and 5.14 xFIP with a paltry 13.6 percent strikeout rate. In addition to giving up a lot of contact, Fiers isn’t generating soft contact with a soft contact rate under 20 percent.
The Rangers will get typical hitter-friendly conditions in Texas with a game time temp of 87 degrees. They have several lefties that generally hit in the top half of the order around which you should build any Rangers stack. Those lefties are Shin-Soo Choo , Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara .
Not the Chalk
On the other side of that game, the Tigers aren’t getting much of a bump from Vegas due to the hitter-friendly ball park. Texas represents a big positive park shift for Detroit, but they only have the 14th highest implied total of the day. They’ll face left-hander Mike Minor who, among today’s probable starters, has the eighth highest hard contact rate allowed and seventh lowest soft contact rate generated. Warm conditions and a pitcher that is getting hit fairly hard this season are a good combination.
Detroit has three hitters who have been above average against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, Nick Castellanos (whose 164 wRC+ vs. LHP is superb), James McCann and John Hicks . The last three times Detroit has faced a left-handed pitcher, those three have hit between 3-7 in the order. The only hitters to hit between them have been Victor Martínez and Jacoby Jones. VMart has started to heat up with a five-game hitting streak ongoing, so he can be used to streamline a Tigers stack.
A more obvious stack option but still a non-chalk option based on the Vegas line is Cleveland who only has the ninth highest implied total tonight against Baltimore. The O’s will send Wade Miley to the hill who allowed a whopping .374 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. With several switch-hitters on the roster, Cleveland is going to have at least six right-handed hitters in their lineup today.
Cleveland has four hitters who have been at least 14 percent better than league average as right-handed hitters against left-handed pitching since the start of last season: José Ramírez , Francisco Lindor , Yan Gomes and Edwin Encarnación . Ramirez, Lindor and Encarnacion are all hot right now as they’re hitting a combined .372 with nine home runs over their last eight games. Encarnacion is 7-for-16 with three home runs in his career against Miley, and Lindor is 4-for-9 with two doubles and three walks against him. They’ll hit either 1-3-4 or 1-3-5 in the order tonight and should be the basis for any Cleveland stack.
One final option is the Cubs who have a slightly lower implied total than the Indians with a matchup like that of the Rangers against Minor. Like Minor, Miami starter Jose Urena has struggled with contact management this season. The Cubs are at home, so they’re not getting the negative park shift they’d be getting if this game was in Miami. Chicago has six hitters who have been above average against right-handed pitching since the start of last season: Kris Bryant , Anthony Rizzo , Kyle Schwarber , Ian Happ , Willson Contreras , and Javier Báez (DTD). That gives you plenty of options to build a streamlined stack.