Schedule and Vegas lines

LSU (-24) @ Vanderbilt - 62 ½ 

Southern Mississippi @ Alabama (-39) - 61

Louisville @ FSU (-7)  - 61

UCF (-12) @ Pittsburgh - 61

South Carolina @ Missouri (-9) - 61

Washington (-6) @ BYU - 52 ½ 

Tennessee @ Florida (-14) - 48

Auburn @ Texas A&M (-3 ½) - 48

Michigan @ Wisconsin (-3) - 44

Cal @ Ole Miss (-2) - 41 ½ 

Michigan State (-9) @ Northwestern - 38
 

Quarterback

Joe Burrow - LSU - FD $10,200 DK $8,500

There wasn’t too much of a debate as to who was going in this spot for me. Joe Burrow has been climbing the heisman ranks early this season and he now gets a cupcake match-up with a Vanderbilt defense that gave up 500 yards through the air to Elijah Sindelar and Purdue. LSU is favored by 24 points with a 62 total, implying 43 points out of this Tigers offense. I consider Burrow a lock for 300 yards and three scores. If Vandy can find a way to score a couple times and keep it within 25, the upside is limitless here. Realistically, five or six scores through the air wouldn’t surprise me. 

If you’re looking to pivot, I think Tua gets a fair amount of ownership. He’s another guy you can lock in for 300/3, but I don’t think the upside is anywhere near each other as USM is not keeping it close with Alabama. There is a world where Vanderbilt scores a couple times and LSU is able to work into the 50’s. Burrow is easily my favorite quarterback on the slate and I wouldn’t be surprised if I ended up with 100%.

Ryan Hilinski - South Carolina - FD $8,500 DK $6,300

This isn’t a typical college football DFS main slate. There are far less options than we’re used to at the QB position.  There isn’t a ton to love in the mid range at QB. Bo Nix and Kellen Mond both have upside, but they’re playing against tough SEC defenses. Kelly Bryant has an easier match-up, but he’s disappointed recently. That leaves us with Dillon Gabriel, who’s been great. This UCF coaching staff is just very reactionary and I would expect Gabriel to sit if he struggles in the slightest. That gets us down to Ryan Hilinski, who got it done last week with 300+ yards against Alabama. It was certainly only because of the game script, however, plenty of QB’s are simply unable to throw for 300 against Bama no matter how many quarters you give them. Hilinski is a good quarterback and he’s priced along with his weapons affordably. This Missouri defense is one of the weakest in the SEC and I don’t see a reason he doesn’t throw for at least 250 yards here with the upside for so much more. The price is fair and he seems like a perfect S-flex play.

Kenny Pickett - Pitt - FD $7,500 DK $5,900

Kenny Pickett has been very good, but variance has bit him in the butt with just two passing touchdowns on over 800 passing yards. He threw for over 300 yards against Penn State last week and failed to reach the end zone a single time. I don’t fully believe in this UCF pass defense and I think they’ll struggle a bit on the road in Pittsburgh. I like Pickett to have another good game and for him to find the end zone a couple times in this one. He’s extremely cheap and makes for a great cash game play in the super flex.
 

Also Consider - James Blackman (FSU), Kellen Mond (TAMU), Dillon Gabriel (UCF)
 

Running Back

Cam Akers - FSU - FD $9,800 DK $7,800

Jonathan Taylor is facing off with the stout Michigan defense, so we’ll be staying away. He’s still one of the best tournament plays on the day as he is that entire Wisconsin offense. However, the upside of Cam Akers and Larry Roundtree III are unmatched. Let’s start with Akers. He’s been given 25 touches in every meaningful game so far and the spread here is just seven. Louisville has started the season nicely, but Vegas thinks FSU holds a comfortable lead throughout. That should result in Cam Akers running wild once again. The Louisville rush defense is porous, allowing 4.8 YPC on the young season. Akers is a lock for 100 yards and a score with the upside for so much more.

Larry Rountree III - Missouri - FD $ DK $

Larry Rountree III is similarly priced to Cam Akers, and not in a much different circumstance. These are two bell cow running backs that can see close to 30 touches if the game script flows the right way. Assuming Missouri is able to get the lead, I see Rountree the guy they lean on over Bryant to hold it. He’s trusted by this coaching staff and South Carolina is most susceptible on the ground. Rountree has scored in every game so far and has eclipsed 100 yards in each of the last two. This South Carolina rush defense is terrible, and the reason Missouri is favored by nine points. They’ll look to establish the run early and keep South Carolina arms distance away with it. I still prefer Akers just slightly, but Rountree is a top play in all formats.

Lamical Perine - UF - FD $8,800 DK $6,500

This Tennessee rush defense is something I’ll attack until they show me they can stop anyone. I took advantage with a 1% Ty’son Williams a couple weeks ago, and he paid off with 100 yards and two scores. That was after they gave up 213 yards on the ground to Georgia State. I expect Perine to have a similar stat line, as the Gators try to figure out what they’d like to do at QB. The running game won’t have any issues moving the ball and Perine should get at least 70% of the carries. He’s a lock for 100 yards and a score, which is a great deal at his price.

Greg McRae - UCF - FD $7,900 DK $6,100 

With UCF favored by nine points and the QB situation still a bit weird, I like this running game a lot. Greg McRae is cheaper than Killins, even though he’s seen more carries and has scored in every single game so far. I like both of these guys, but McRae is the bigger back and who I think they lean on against Pitt. His price is too low for the talent he has and the way UCF uses these guys. They seem like a pass-heavy offense, but they never forget about the running game. Expect McRae and Killins to go for another 180+ on the ground and whoever gets the touchdown or two is the right play. With McRae seeing the goal line more, he’s who I’ll be leaning on in tournaments.

Isaiah Spiller - Texas A&M - FD $6,700 DK $5,000

Working towards some value, there are two guys worth mentioning here. Isaiah Spiller has come on strong and he looks to be taking over as the starting running back. I predicted this week one. Spiller is a dirty running back and he’s a guy A&M will force into the game plan with his explosiveness. Expect at least 10 carries and a couple targets out of the backfield. The game will be close and running against the Auburn front obviously isn’t ideal. That being said, the A&M offensive line is a bunch of grown men and it will be a good battle down there. I just don’t see any way that Spiller is priced at $5,000. He’s a $7k+ guy as the feature back on this offense.

Elijah Collins - Michigan State - FD $8,000 DK $4,600

Elijah Collins took over the starting spot from Connor Heyward and he hasn’t looked back. The price is still way too low and the sites haven’t had a chance to catch up just yet. This Michigan State team is a slight favorite over Northwestern and they should be focused on establishing the run throughout. Collins saw 19 carries and caught the ball once, which is what I would expect once again. This price is just far too low for a guy that should score and run for at least 80 yards.

Also Consider - Najee Harris (ALA), Scottie Phillips (MISS), John Emery Jr. (LSU), Jonathan Taylor (WISC)

 

Wide Receiver
 

Justin Jefferson - LSU - FD $10,000 DK $7,600

We’re going to ignore Jerry Jeudy here just like we did Tua, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a phenomenal play. He disappointed last week and it will hopefully keep folks off of him. He faced one of the best corners in the nation and Bama just went the path of least resistance with other options. That won’t happen against USM. However, just like at QB, this LSU receiving core has a bit more upside for me. If LSU is forced to throw for four quarters, I can realistically see 200 yards out of Justin Jefferson. That sounds crazy, but this Vanderbilt defense can’t stop anyone of the outside and LSU is going to throw the ball a atom. Jefferson is the number one receiver in terms of both targets and catches. Terrace Marshall Jr. is an option as well, but I clearly prefer Jefferson in all formats. Remember, Vegas expects LSU to put up 40+ points in this one, so there should be plenty of fantasy points to go around.

Darrell Stewart Jr. - Michigan State - FD $8,600 DK $6,300

Until Brian Lewerke and this Michigan State offense show me they’re going to attack different, I will be playing Darrell Stewart Jr. He’s been an absolute target hog to start the season, and he’s caught 18 balls over just the last two games. Lewerke is feeding him like a running back, and he’s seen double the amount of targets of Cody White. Stewart Jr. is in a slow game against Northwestern, but that may just mean they lean on him even more. The senior wide receiver is as reliable as you can find and he’s in play  in all formats. 

Bryan Edwards - South Carolina - FD $7,400 DK $6,300

If you’re a fan of Ryan Hilinski at quarterback, Bryan Edwards in the best guy to pair him with. Edwards was a clear favorite of Hilinski, catching nine balls for 80 yards last week. Shi Smith is interesting as well, but I think Hilinski leans on his number one a lot if trying to catch Missouri. Edwards has as much talent as anyone at the position and he can score twice without blinking. If Jake Bentley was still under the center, this is a guy that was projected to have 1,000+ yards. Hilinski looks pretty good himself, so that may not be out of the equation. As for today, Hilinski and Edwards are a solid inexpensive pairing.

Albert Okwuegbunam - Missouri - FD $7,600 DK $5,100

Okwuegbunam hasn’t had a ton of catches, but Kelly Bryant has looked his way in the red zone a ton. Three touchdowns in just the last two games. I expect Bryant to lean in his newfound target a lot against South Carolina, and it could easily result in another pair of touchdowns. His price is fair across the industry and we could very easily see a repeat of week two. Bryant doesn’t have the most accurate arm and I suspect that’s why he hones in on the middle of the field when it gets tight. The upside for more is there if Bryant starts targeting him between the 20’s. 

Hunter Bryant - Washington - FD $7,900 DK $5,400

This Washington offense only has three weapons, and Jacob Eason does a great job of getting the ball in their hands. Hunter Bryant looked great in week three, catching five balls for 115 yards and a score. Eason honed in on him in the redzone, finishing with 3 red zone targets for Bryant. The BYU defense is very middle of the road and the price should be a bit higher here on Bryant. If you need some safe savings, he’s a great way to go.
 

Also Consider - Quartney Davis (TAMU), Tamorrion Terry (FSU), Aaron Fuller (UW)

 

DraftKings Example Lineups

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FanDuel Example Lineups

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