Quarterbacks

Justin Fields - Ohio State - $9,000

There are a few options to spend up for on this early slate, and Justin Fields may be considered risky by some. HC Ryan Day has already commented that Fields is guaranteed nothing beyond the first snap, but he also has the opportunity to never see the bench. Assuming Fields stinks, it doesn’t really matter what he’s guaranteed or who the backup is. It’s my opinion that Fields is going to be phenomenal, so I just need him to be out there for that first snap to prove himself. The Buckeyes hold an implied total well over 40 points, and FAU has enough of an offense to keep it close enough. Surely, J.K. Dobbins will have a lot of work to do here, but Fields will be given every opportunity to have a huge game against this porous defense to get his engine going.

The only way I could see Fields getting benched is in a blowout, but that’s not something I expect. Ohio State is losing four offensive linemen and seven total starters on offense. Florida Atlantic is returning all four down linemen, and two of them happen to be legitimate NFL prospects.  I by no means expect Ohio State to struggle, but I also don’t think it gets egregious enough to bench the starters. Especially when they need to get used to playing with each other. With Fields being a running QB, these offensive linemen have to get used to feeling their QB behind them and I don’t see benching them against a solid opponent much help. Fields can throw with anyone in the country, but his upside comes on the ground. For reference, his 40 yard dash speed was just .01 lower than J.K. Dobbins. He can run for 200 yards and can throw for another 300. Fields is a boom or bust pick this season, and I’m willing to give him a shot on opening day. 

Tommy Stevens - Mississippi St. - $7,600

Let’s look at some reasonably priced options. We have plenty to pay up for at running back and wide receiver, so we’ll need to save funds somewhere. Tommy Stevens beat out Keytaon Thompson, which is not what was expected to happen at the beginning of camp. He’s been a career backup at Penn State, but that’s only because Trace McSorley was at the helm. Tommy Stevens is a great passer, but most of his upside is on the ground against this porous Louisiana Lafayette defense. Mississippi State is favored by 18.5 points with a 60 total, implying 39 points or so out of the Bulldogs. Stevens is a great play in all formats, though we’re about to look at a guy who is pretty tough to ignore. 

Michael Penix Jr. - Indiana - $6,500

The three-way battle for starting QB has been finally settled, and Michael Penix Jr. has earned the job. Penix Jr. impressed as a freshman in 2018, but tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season. He completed 61.8% of passes when his ACL was intact, and has now beaten Peyton Ramsey for the starting gig. Penix Jr. is far too cheap and it’ll be hard for me to ignore him in any format. The Indiana Hoosiers are favored by 17 points and expected to put up nearly 40 points. Penix Jr. will be in about 80% of my DraftKings lineups.  

 

Running Backs

Patrick Taylor Jr - Memphis - $8,500

Patrick Taylor Jr. is probably the easiest play on this slate for me. This game between Ole Miss and Memphis holds the highest total on the board (65) and Memphis is favored by four points. Patrick Taylor Jr. is the most expensive running back and rightfully so. In his final four games of 2018, Taylor combined for 114 fantasy points and never went below 27. He now faces off with a Ole Miss defense that gave up the 18th most running yards last season and ranked 114th out of 130 in total defense. This offense runs through Patrick Taylor and this Memphis team is the favorite in the highest total of the day. I don’t recommend fading Taylor in any format. 

Stevie Scott, J.K. Dobbins, Kylin Hill, and A.J. Dillon all have a ton of upside. With Taylor Jr. likely the chalk, these four will be under owned and have just as much upside. Just not the safety.

A.J. Rose - Kentucky - $6,100

I personally prefer Asim Rose, as it’s certainly a bit more badass than A.J and his real name. Stick with it. Whatever you want to call him, he’s too cheap in this spot. Benny Snell and his 1,400 yards are out of the picture, leaving a huge opportunity for Rose. It’s tough to project a guy to be as good as Snell, but he has all the tools and is a better pass catcher than Snell ever was. Expect A.J. Rose to be a guy in the $8k range come a few weeks. The Wildcats are 11 point favorites against Toledo with a 61 total, implying 35 or so points for Kentucky. Rose is extremely safe at running back and could be a must at his price point. 

Zonovan Knight - NC State - $5,500

The NC State Wolfpack is favored by 17 points today, so it’s fair to expect them to keep it on the ground a ton. Especially as the figure out who’s starting at RB. Ricky Person is the favorite, but he’s honestly not that great of a runner. He averaged well under five YPC in all but one game, and scored in just three of his nine starts. With that being said, he was supposedly banged up and not himself. Zonovan Knight is unproven, but he was insane in high school and has jumped three names in camp. He’s now listed as a co-starter next to Person and I think it’s just a matter of time until he’s getting the bulk of the carries. The Eastern Carolina run defense is laughable, posting the 11th-worst YPG allowed to opposing running backs. You can play Person or Knight, as both will get plenty of run. I just see Knight as the better back and the guy who will be far lesser owned. 

 

Wide Receivers

Jerry Jeudy  - Alabama - $8,300

Jeudy is looking like the best WR prospect we’ve seen in some time. A.J Green and Sammy Watkins come to mind when you think of receivers with this level of hype, but they still didn’t get drafted where many are projecting Jeudy - 1st. I almost guarantee a QB or two emerge this season and jump Jeudy, but it says a lot. Alabama will be without their top two RB’s in the first half, so expect Tua and Jeudy to connect plenty. 

‘Bama is favored by 34 points, which seems like a lot, but it doesn’t take the starters out of the game until the late second half. We see lines well over 50 with Alabama, which is when you can assume the blowout risk. Duke is a good team and Quentin Harris will do his best to keep the Blue Devils within 30. Expect Jeudy to be targeted early and often, on his way to at least 130 yards and a score. Book it. 

Emeka Emezie and C.J. Riley - NC State - $7,100 - $5,100

Target the Eastern Carolina defense through the air. They’ve consistently been one of the worst defenses in the nation and I wouldn’t expect some miraculous turnaround. Onto NC State, Ryan Finley at QB was certainly a luxury for Emezie and this WR corps. He’ll be a target hog for Matthew McKay, instead, who’s starting his first game today. Emezie is a big body receiver that is extremely solid at running “little guy” routes. You’ll see plenty of deep posts and back shoulder outs, but he also runs a lot of drags and zags. Matthew McKay has every opportunity to succeed here, facing off with one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the nation. (122nd of 30). 

If you can’t afford Emeka Ezekie, C.J. Riley is much cheaper and will start at the “X”. He’s another huge body, coming in at 6 ‘4, 212. NC State has some men on the edge here and that’s not good news for one of the more pitiful pass defenses. I don’t plan on fading this NC State offense in any lineups. Both the RB and WR are in play. 

Nick Westbrook & Donavan Hale - Indiana  - $6,400 - $6,000

If you’re deploying Michael Penix Jr. at QB like I am, please don’t fade his receivers. Westbrook, Hale, and Philyor are all extremely talented and we could all three of them playing on Sundays very soon. Nick Westbrook is the clear number one and he’s not expensive enough to pivot down from. Westbrook put up 540 yards in 2018, but emerged at the end of the season as the number one option. 

In the three games, Penix Jr. started last season, Donavan Hale edged out Nick Westbrook by three targets. If you’ve ever watched Indiana, Hale is humongous. He measures in at 6 foot 4, but certainly plays even bigger than his size. His 50/50 balls are more like 80/20’s, and that jump ball is always something to look for from a young QB. Penix Jr. looks like a great option in all formats and I would pair him with at least one of these guys.

 

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