It’s been a while, but last week we were able to breathe easily and not sweat out a last-second made or missed field goal. Both Seattle and Tennessee, my top two picks cruised to easy victories. There are a lot of big favorites this week, but being 14 weeks in, your pick will depend on who you have left to choose from.

The week’s biggest favorite of course is playing the lowly Jets. The Rams are favored by 17 at home as the Jets travel to the west coast for the second straight week. Jared Goff will be slinging the ball to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods all day. Everyone is hyped up about Cam Akers and he should produce as the Rams should be up big by the second half making him a volume play. The Jets scored on their first possession against Seattle and then Adam Gase did what Adam Gase does and the offense went into hibernation. This, along with the team being “jet-lagged” for the second straight week on the west coast, makes the Rams the best bet of the week if you still have them available.

Coming off the thriller on Monday night, the Ravens are 13 ½ point home favorites over the Jaguars. The Jaguars were decimated by Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ running attack should be in full force on Sunday. As long as Lamar Jackson doesn’t need more IV fluids in the middle of the game, or have to poop, the Ravens should control the ball and the game. They are in the mix to be the pick this week but they have the most future value as they are going to be favored in each of their last two games. With the playoffs on the line, saving them for week 17 against the Bengals may be wise as they will have something to play for.

Pittsburgh has gone from undefeated darlings to the owners of a two-game losing streak. They have been used by a majority of pool participants but they are a good pick as 12 ½ point favorites in Cincinnati. I don’t see the Bengals being able to do anything on offense and even though the Steelers are struggling on offense, they will do enough to win this one. 

The Packers are 9 point home favorites over Carolina who will be without Christian McCaffrey once again. Carolina has shown signs of life despite it and has kept games close. Last week they lost to Denver at home as Drew Lock threw a career-high 4 touchdown passes. If you give that up to Lock, what will Aaron Rodgers do? It should be a win for the Packers, but they can lay an egg every so often. If you have Green Bay available, they are a viable option and should be low owned since they have probably been used by many already.  They do have some value during the last two weeks, so they may be worth saving if you have better options this week.

If you want to go with a low-owned option and hope for an upset of the favorites, consider San Francisco over Dallas and the Colts over Houston. If you have them, Buffalo is also a good option over the Broncos.

Here’s a list of my picks so far:  Buffalo, Arizona, Chargers (L), Rams, Dallas, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Giants, Las Vegas, and Seattle.

Pick of the Week: Tennessee

With the news that Matthew Stafford is unlikely to play, this made the Titans even more enticing. They have almost no value going forward and should take down the Lions, even if Stafford plays. Derrick Henry continues to have Decembers to Remember and should continue against the Lions’ 29th ranked rushing defense. Ryan Tannehill will also have his way as the Lions aren’t any better against the pass. The Titans will be highly owned but they have no value going forward so this is the week to take them.

This allows you to save the Ravens for one of the next two weeks (I am saving them for week 17). If you somehow have the Packers or Bills available, they will be low owned and a loss by the Titans, Rams, or Ravens will increase your chances of winning. If you are in a pool where you can pick teams multiple times, the Rams are definitely the chalk of the week. 

Looking ahead to week 16, the Browns are playing the Jets, so if you still have them, I would save them. They, along with Houston and Chicago, will be under consideration.

If you are in your football league semi-finals, good luck! Hope you survive and we’ll see you back next week!