The Mock Draft Army is humming along. Informative, quick, and fun drafts are happening each night. If you haven’t joined in, please do. This week’s topic is going to look at how rosters were constructed over the first five to six rounds when a team took either Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson .  We’ll eliminate the super flex draft from consideration as they are just a different animal to begin with.

We had two 12 team and one 10 team mock this week.  In both 12 team mocks, both quarterbacks were chosen in the third round and in the 10 team they were taken in the fourth round. Here’s a look at how they were constructed over the first six rounds.

Team

PM/LJ

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Koalas 8/10

PM 3.07

RB

RB

QB

WR

WR

RB

Malin 8/10

LJ 3.08

WR

RB

QB

RB

RB 

TE

Kangas 8/12

LJ 4.08

RB

RB

WR

QB

RB

RB

Spiteri 8/12

PM 4.05

RB

RB

WR

QB

RB

WR

Spiteri 8/13

LJ 3.04

RB

RB

QB

TE

WR

WR

Smalls 8/13

PM 3.08

WR

WR

QB

RB

RB

WR

First thing we notice is that four of the six teams took a running back with their first two picks. With the depth at WR the logic is that this affords these teams to be able to take a QB with their third/fourth round pick since they’ll be able to get decent wide receivers in the fourth through sixth round.  Smalls bucked the trend by going WR in Rounds 1 and 2, but then had to follow his Mahomes selection with two running backs in Rounds 4 and 5.  Our own Dan Malin was the only one to take both a WR and RB before his third round selection of Lamar Jackson .

The Fantasy Alarm evaluator had Malin ranked sixth and the Koalas ranked second in that mock. In Rounds 4 and 5 Malin went with Devin Singletary and Jordan Howard as his RB2 and RB3 after taking Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs with his first two picks.  After Dan’s pick of Adams, seven of the next eight picks were running backs leaving him with Jacobs as his RB1. He could have taken Derrick Henry or Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead of Adams and possibly still ended up with either Tyreek Hill or Julio Jones in the second round.

The Koalas were liked more by the evaluator with his picks of Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette preceding his Mahomes pick.  He followed Lamar up with Cooper Kupp and DeVante Parker . The combo at RB is solid and if Parker can come close to repeating last year, this is a nice team.

The other 12 teamer had me investing in Jackson and Killing Me Smalls in Mahomes. We both started out with running backs in the first two rounds. My team from the fourth slot started with Alvin Kamara and Chris Carson and Smalls from the eighth started with DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill .  After taking our QBs, I took Zach Ertz as the drop off to the rest of the TEs at that point was significant and that I’d be able to load up on WRs the next few rounds. Smalls had to take his running backs in Rounds 4 and 5 and went with Jonathan Taylor and Kareem Hunt .

This mock gave us the best contrast as to taking one of these quarterbacks early with taking two RBs and two WRs in the first two rounds.  The evaluator confirmed what we expected to happen with this roster construction. I was predicted third and Smalls was twelfth.  Again, this only reflects what the team would do if the starters played the whole season and does not take into account in season management.

In the 10 team mocks, Kangas and I were the ones to take the plunge with the early QBs. We both went RB, RB, WR with our first three picks. Kangas took Ezekiel Elliott , Austin Ekeler and Kenny Golladay from the three spot and I took Kamara, Josh Jacobs and Odell Beckham Jr from the sixth spot.  The evaluator looked favorably on us as Kangas was second and I was fourth in a tight race among the top five which is what you would expect in a ten teamer.

So, with six different examples this gives you an idea of what your roster construction could look like and what the potential outcomes could be if you decide to take Mahomes or Jackson early in your draft.  If you’re in a draft slot that affords you to be able to take two running backs in the first two rounds AND you’re staring at the option of one of these quarterbacks, you can take the plunge.

Now let’s look at some players whose ADPs are rising and falling

ADP Risers

A.J. Green , WR, Cincinnati Bengals

There were glowing reports about how Green was doing in camp this past week. Chris Rolling of Bengalswire reported that “Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green looks like a Comeback Player of the Year Contender going into 2020”. Dadio Makdook of cincyjungle.com reported how Green’s teammates are all raving about how he looks in camp. Alex Erickson was quoted saying “You can tell when a guy looks explosive and he looks explosive. The quick twitch. He’s bending, getting in and out of routes. It’s awesome seeing A.J. Green back out there.”

For fantasy purposes the issue is that we won’t get to see Green play in any preseason games and make that judgement for ourselves. Camp hype is typical but it may be real. Green’s stock will be on the rise with continued reports like this.

Lamar Miller , RB, New England Patriots

Miller signed a contract with the Patriots and immediately jumped back into fantasy relevancy.  The New England backfield is its typical mess and the hope here is that Miller can come back from his ACL injury and secure a spot in that backfield. Sony Michel is recovering from surgery and this signing is another indication that he may not be ready for the start of the season. Is Miller someone who is going to finish as a top RB? Not a chance, but he may be a useful bye week fill in if he can secure regular snaps.  He’s worth a late round flier in 12 team and deeper leagues.

Cam Newton , QB, New England Patriots

When Cam first signed with the Patriots it was lauded as another good move by Bill Belichick. As camp opened, the momentum started to build. At first it was Cam should be able to compete for the starting job, there are no guarantees. Then we started getting reports about how Newton’s personality was taking over the locker room.

Newton is being taken in the 12th to 13th round in most mocks as the QB15-16. By the time the season starts, and we get “word” from the Patriots that Cam is the starter, expect him to climb up to the top 12. Cam’s value may be directly related to what I wrote about Lamar Miller . With few options at RB, he may steal a lot of goal line rushes and score multiple rushing TDs adding to his value. He can pay off as your QB2 with that 12th round selection.

ADP Fallers

Sony Michel , RB, New England Patriots

Might as well keep on the Patriots train.  With the signing of Lamar Miller , Michel’s stock takes a hit and he tumbles even further down draft boards. Headline from NESN “Is Sony Michel ‘destined’ to miss the first half of the season?” The Boston Herald stated the obvious “Patriots running back room in flux with Sony Michel ’s injury woes”.  Michel is now an avoid in fantasy drafts. His ADP until two weeks ago was 99 and over the last two weeks has dropped to 120 in the NFFC contests.

Devin Singletary , RB, Buffalo Bills

Before the NFL draft Singletary was looked upon as an every down back for the Bills. Then came Zack Moss. With the lack of preparedness this off season for all NFL rookies, I don’t expect most rookies to hit the ground running. The issue with Singletary is that Moss doesn’t have to be that prepared to steal goal line touches.  The fantasy community is agreeing with that as Singletary’s stock is beginning to fall. His ADP has dropped about half a round over the last two weeks and this could continue to trend. The Bills like to run the ball but with the acquisition of Stefon Diggs and the hopeful continued maturation of Josh Allen , this could lead to less touches for the backfield.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vaughn’s stock has been dropping over the last two weeks as the rookie concerns have hit the Bucs camp. Protecting Tom Brady is a priority and the worries about rookie running backs and pass protection have cast doubts into his playing time early on. Vaughn’s ADP has dropped about a round and may continue to fall further. In our latest mock with the Fantasy Alarm Mock Draft Army he was sandwiched between Marlon Mack and Phillip Lindsay in Round 8. He may continue to fall further as drafters look for more reliable options as we enter the unknown season of 2020.