Fantasy Baseball: ADP Risers and Fallers
Andy Spiteri combs through all of the mock draft data over the past three weeks to identify some players that have watched their stock rise and fall to help you prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts
An important part of your fantasy baseball drafts is to know who is rising and falling based on their ADP. Missing out on a player or drafting one too early because you don’t know the recent trends can cost you a championship. Let’s take a look at some risers and fallers in ADP using consensus ADP data compiled from Fantrax, RTSports, NFBC and Yahoo from Feb 19th to Mar 2nd. We’ll also compare their current ADPs to that of the Mock Draft Army which has compiled its ADP over a similar period. The Army is a group of fantasy industry writers and their readers who do live mock drafts as part of their prep for their actual drafts.
1-100 ADP Risers
Javier Báez 44.58 (+3.96)
Baez regressed slightly in 2019 from his 2018 outstanding season. His K% rose by 2% and coupled with a similar BABIP, saw his batting average dip to .281 from .290. His aggregate projections on Fangraphs show an increase in his counting stats over last year due largely to an expectation of his games played rising to 152 from 138. The rise in his ADP appears to be due to the fall of others in a similar range like Jose Altuve , Mike Clevinger , and Yordan Alvarez . He is the ninth shortstop off the board going in the fourth round of 12 team drafts. The Mock Draft Army likes Javy a bit better with their ADP at 35.
Luis Robert 98.97 (+4.04)
Robert is this year’s Vlad Jr. He is hyped to the hilt and you are paying for it. His ADP over the last two weeks in the NFBC is 76.49 but the Army has him at 108. Why the difference? Robert is going for a premium due to his stolen base potential. He hasn’t had a single at bat in the majors. He is being taken ahead of Marcell Ozuna , Nick Castellanos , and Michael Conforto . Now none of these players have his speed, but they have all proven they can put up 20+ homers and drive in 80+ runs. The Army understands the risk that rookies have and have shown restraint by not picking him too early. I think the Army’s ADP is more in line as to where it should be. Let someone else take the risk at the earlier ADP.
Why a generic RP category? Relief pitchers were the top four risers in ADP in this group and occupied the top five spots in the 101-200 ADP category. Have RPs all of a sudden gained value across the board? On average these nine relievers have risen a half round each. There was also a group of relievers going in the 211 to 222 range that rose a full round. In the top 100 Roberto Osuna , Aroldis Chapman , Josh Hader , and Kirby Yates all rose to four to five slots. In the 101-200 range Héctor Neris , Hansel Robles , Edwin Díaz , Archie Bradley and Sean Doolittle rose 6-8 slots. I honestly don’t know how to explain the overall rise of all these relief pitchers but it’s real so if you usually wait on a closer, you may want to take one a round earlier than you planned. The Army is in lock step with the current ADPs of the relievers and this helps validate the trend.
101-200 ADP Risers
Tim Anderson 104.9 (+4.34)
Anderson had a breakout year last year, leading the majors in batting average at .335. He coupled that with 18 HRs and 17 SBs in just 128 games making him one of the major contributors to fantasy championships last season. Even with this breakout, he is the 12th shortstop taken. The Mock Draft Army’s ADP for Anderson is 115 as he is due for regression as his BABIP of almost .400 is nearly 100 points over the league average indicating he was a bit lucky last year. His miniscule walk rate of 2.9% gave him the worst BB/K ratio in the majors. Red flags abound. The MDA is seeing them, why isn’t everyone else?
Nick Castellanos 108.12 (+6.39)
Castellanos has enjoyed some very good seasons the last three years in Detroit and Chicago. After being traded to the Cubs he hit 16 home runs in only 51 games as compared to 11 in 100 games with the Tigers. Now Castellanos moves to the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and he is moving up draft boards. The Reds lineup also added Mike Moustakas in free agency giving them a middle of the order consisting of Castellanos, Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez and Joey Votto . He will get a lot of RBI opportunities and score close to 100 runs. I find myself taking him in the mocks often after the likes of Andrew Benintendi , Ramón Laureano , Luis Robert , and David Dahl are chosen. His move up in ADP is no surprise and it may rise even more as we approach opening day.
Corey Seager 144.77 (+6.23)
Before his Tommy John surgery, Seager was hailed as the next great hitting shortstop. His Rookie Of The Year campaign in 2016 was followed by a good 2017, and then a cut short 2018 due to his injury. Upon his return last year, Seager finished strong and is looking to build on it. He had an 18% strikeout rate and a BABIP of .303 which is about the league average. With a little luck, look for him to improve on his 2019 numbers. He could be a very good value in the 12th round. With so many shortstops being taken ahead of him, you could wait on the position and pick him up in the 11-12th round range. His MDA ADP is 135, as the army appears to be expecting a bit more from Seager than the aggregate.
Mike Clevinger 33.83 (-6.76)
Clevinger had arthroscopic knee surgery for a cartilage tear in mid-February and was projected to miss six to eight weeks. He is already beginning his throwing program and as I have said on several occasions, I think he’ll only miss a few starts. He has gone from a second to a fourth round pick in most drafts and I believe he’s a bargain at this price. There are no arm issues here and a clean up knee scope will not keep him out long. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Eugenio Suárez 67.95 (-5.90)
Suarez is recovering from shoulder surgery for loose cartilage suffered while swimming in the off season. He hasn’t appeared in a spring training game as of yet and this is driving his price down. As long as there isn’t much in the way of pain from where the cartilage was torn, his shoulder should rebound fairly quickly, unlike from rotator cuff or labrum surgery. This is another buying opportunity for someone who bashed 49 home runs last year and drove in over 100 runs for the second consecutive year. With the addition of free agents Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos , Suarez should continue to bash. Take advantage of this discount and add him in the sixth round.
Giancarlo Stanton 68.45 (-10.62)
Stanton is unable to stay healthy. He has suffered a Grade 1 calf strain and is expected to be out past Opening Day. There is no word as to a date for his expected return at this time. Stanton only had 72 plate appearances last year in 18 games. When he is healthy he hits, but how many games can we expect him to play? The Army’s ADP is at 77 as their trepidation is high. In the latest mock that took place on March 5th, he went 88th. This could turn out great if you take him in the sixth round or later, but then again, it may not.
Yuli Gurriel 134.46 (-9.94)
In the wake of the Astros cheating scandal one would expect a drop in ADP for most of the Astros hitters. Gurriel appears to be the only one who has dropped significantly. Alex Bregman has dropped a bit from late first pick to an early second round choice. The number hasn’t moved much on Jose Altuve , Yordan Alvarez , Michael Brantley , or Carlos Correa . Why the larger drop for Gurriel? Can we expect the Astros hitters to struggle? Will the players from 2017 be affected more than those who weren’t with the team then? These are all questions that will be answered as the season progresses. The fans have been relentless in Florida and this will continue as the Astros go on the road once the season starts. If the players weren’t cheating last year as they claim, then any discount you get on an Astros player may be something to take advantage of.
Shohei Ohtani 137.98 (-10.52)
Ohtani is progressing with his throwing program and the Angels announced that he won’t pitch in a game until May. This is the most likely reason for his ADP to fall as early drafters were expecting him to pitch starting Opening Day. He is an interesting pick as your league rules will dictate how valuable he’ll be to your team. If your pitching lineup is set only once a week like in the NFBC, declaring him a pitcher will not allow you to get his hitting stats for the week and vice versa. The main advantage to him is if you can make daily lineup moves. Watch him closely. The MDA also has him as a 14th round pick with an ADP of 132.
Aristides Aquino 179.92 (-9.6)
Aquino has been affected by the acquisition of Castellanos, which has made the Reds outfield a crowded situation. Castellanos will be an everyday player. Fighting for playing time will be Aquino, Jesse Winker , Nick Senzel who is recovering from shoulder surgery, and Shogo Akiyama. Aquino took the league by surprise last year by setting several records hitting home runs at a ridiculous pace before coming down to earth. Contributing to his drop has been his 0-14 start at the plate in Spring Training. He is in danger of starting the season in AAA so he could get regular at bats and work on it. Expect a much larger decline in ADP if he is sent down or someone else like Nick Senzel is declared one of the full time outfielders. He had a 27% strikeout rate and a low BABIP. This could have contributed to bad luck but his high fly ball percentage will make it tougher to improve on his numbers.