You carefully planned out your season and made it to week 15 with the 49ers in your back pocket.  Home against the struggling Falcons, what could go wrong? The Raiders are facing the Jaguars in the Oakland sendoff.  They have to win this one.  Ryan Tannehill is a world beater.  Home against the up and down Texans. The Titans should win this one.  Survivor pools are always a minefield and week 15 provided us with more missteps.  If you are still in it, let’s take a look at what games give you the best chance to win or advance to week 17.

Looking back to our criteria of home favorites by 7 or more points having the best chance of winning we find four teams that fit the bill.  The good news is that two of them are teams that haven’t been used much and should be available to many of you. 

The biggest favorite are the Seahawks who are 9 ½ point favorites over the Cardinals at home.  The Cardinals have been playing better but shouldn’t have enough to beat Seattle on the road. Tyler Lockett looks healthy again and Russell Wilson should feast on Arizona’s secondary.

The other three home favorites are all favored by 7. The Colts over Carolina, the Broncos over Detroit, and the Falcons over Jacksonville. Many took the Colts earlier in the year and if you did you are probably not reading this as their loss at home to Oakland knocked many out. If you still have them, the Panthers are switching quarterbacks and the Colts defense may be too much for Carolina to handle.

The Broncos have played better recently but forgot how to play in the snow in Kansas City last week. Detroit is a mess as they are down to Kenny Golladay as their only threat. They may get Kerryon Johnson back this week so be on the lookout for that. The Broncos will be a popular pick this week.

Which Falcons team will show up this week? They beat the 49ers which no one expected and knocked some of your opponents out. Now they face Jacksonville who eked out a victory over the Raiders. It took some last minute heroics so it’s not like they played all too well. The “good” Falcons should handle the Jags.

The teams that most have probably used already are playing in divisional matchups and become risky picks. Patriots/Bills, 49ers/Rams, Vikings/Packers, and Cowboys/Eagles, Raiders/Chargers are all games I would avoid if possible. Of course if you still somehow have the Ravens or Seahawks available you’ll gladly take them as an exception to this trend.

For me it comes down to the Broncos or the Falcons based on who I have left to choose from. The Broncos should handle the Lions defensively but can we trust their offense? The pick is Atlanta to move on to week 17 if you don’t have the Ravens or Seahawks.