There’s a reason that Texas Hold’em is one of the most popular games at the casino and that’s because it’s technically “gambling” but there’s also some skill involved. You aren’t just rolling the dice. If you read the table, play the odds, strike at the right times, you can give yourself an advantage. Yes, sometimes you can do everything right but still lose to some dummy who ended up with a full house of twos over sevens, but that’s the risk you take when you sit at the table.
Fantasy football is like that in a lot of ways. If you know your league, know the rules, know the players, you can give yourself an advantage that goes beyond just random luck. But not everyone is going to be dealt pocket aces with Christian McCaffrey in the first round, and once those players with certainty are off the board, we are all going to have to place our bets and do a little bit of gambling. The important thing is understanding exactly what the bet is that you are making and what the risks vs. rewards are. Armed with the right knowledge, uncertainty can become your friend.
So, with the season rapidly approaching and the biggest weekend for drafts coming up, let’s take a look at some of the key uncertainties out there and consider which players we want to put our chips on.
The Slot Machine
I wrote a full article on how to go about deciding if you want to draft a slot receiver or not and the key takeaway is that you really don’t want guys that are just slot receivers. You want receivers that play in the slot for three WR sets but more to flanker for two WR sets. Any time a second tight end, second running back, fullback etc. comes on the field, that means a WR comes off, and it’s often the slot guy that is the odd man out. Here are some places you can gamble on that.
Dallas Cowboys
This is THE biggest bet out there because of how early CeeDee Lamb is going. Last year Lamb played slot on 94% of his snaps, but he was coming out for two wide sets so he only played 64% of the overall snaps. There are rumors that Michael Gallup has learned the slot role and that Lamb is learning the outside role, which would allow for more mixing and matching rather than Amari Cooper and Gallup playing ~90% of the snaps while Lamb plays ~65% like last year. But make no mistake, the Cowboys have two capable tight ends AND two capable pass catching backs, so there will be times when there are only two WRs out there. If you are taking Lamb at his ADP, which is just at the fringes of the WR1 level, you are betting that Gallup is now the odd man out. If they are both splitting the snaps evenly, but each is playing like 75-80% of the snaps, it’s hard to capture the upside that comes with some of these other guys who play upwards or 95-100%. For instance, Adam Thielen had a 100% route participation last year meaning he was on the field for every pass play. Some guys don’t come out at all.
Detroit Lions
Breshad Perriman has been released. Most reports have Tyrell Williams as the top WR. That leaves guys like second year player Quintez Cephus and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown poised to maybe have a big role right away. ARSB has made some noise in camp and he’s likely locked down the slot role but he hasn’t played much outside. In the preseason games so far, ARSB has only played 8 snaps out wide compared to 39 for Cephus. If you are betting that either of them will have decent upside, you are betting that they are out there in two WR sets. TJ Hockenson is not coming off the field, so if former tight end Dan Campbell wants to send out a second tight end, someone is coming out of the game.
Arizona Cardinals
This is a different kind of slot battle because the Cardinals base offense doesn’t actually use a tight end, so the vast majority of their snaps do feature three wide receivers with a fourth WR coming on to play the second slot. That type of offensive set up is rare, but it does move the goalposts in that the first slot guy actually might play a full time role which means it’s not the end of the world to only play slot. So far, we know that DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green are on the outside. The initial reports have Christian Kirk in the lead for that slot role with speedy Rondale Moore as the odd man out coming on for four WR sets. If you want to bet on Rondale Moore, you are betting that at some point he overtakes Kirk to be the top slot player there.
Top Target Roulette
In the first article of this year’s Ultimate Tight End Guide, we provided some stats regarding targets, and the general idea is that most fantasy difference makers are getting 100+ targets and it’s fairly rare for a team to have three players all get 100+. Over the last five years, 95.6% of the teams have had two or fewer players get 100+ targets. Meanwhile, every top 24 WR last season got 100+. So let’s look at teams where there is some uncertainty and room to gamble on the top target.
Jaguars, Jets, Lions, Texans
Last year DJ Moore was going off the board as WR12 while Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel were going off the board at WRs 64 and 65. But the Panthers had a brand new coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback, creating uncertainty. Robby Anderson actually ended up leading that team in targets. This year, the Jaguars, Jets, Lions, and Texans all have new coaches, new coordinators, and new quarterbacks, just like the Panthers did. If we consider that the top two targets on the team all have a decent chance at 100+ targets, it might be worth gambling on guys like Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Nico Collins, Jordan Akins etc. in the later rounds.
New England Patriots
This will always be a juicy one for me, not only because it’s my personal favorite team, but because there are tight ends involved. Last year in what has increasingly looked like a “bridge year”, undrafted free agent Jakobi Meyers led this team in targets (although he has yet to score an NFL touchdown). Now they bring in some heavy hitters with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith at tight end, a well paid Nelson Agholor, and fellow slot man Kendrick Bourne. If one of these tight ends can claim the top target spot on this team, they could be well worth the ADP you are paying for them as they could have top five upside regardless of who the quarterback is.
Miami Dolphins
You can honestly make a narrative for any one of these guys. DeVante Parker is the veteran leadership at the position who’s been with the team. Will Fuller is a guy that they paid handsomely to come over (though he is injury prone and also suspended for the first game). Jaylen Waddle is the talented rookie who was taken with a fairly high pick and Mike Gesicki is a tight end eligible “big slot” player who was second on the team in targets last year. We didn’t get a full look at Tua Tagovailoa last year so it’s not clear which way he’s going to lean in his first full season calling the shots.
Running Back Coin Flip
This is one of the more high risk, high reward games you can play in the fantasy football casino. Throwing your hat in the ring in an uncertain backfield, but the rewards can also be tremendous, as anyone who drafted James Robinson or Miles Gaskin last year can attest to. Here are some places where it’s not so clear and you might want to throw your hat in the ring.
San Francisco 49ers
This is the big one really. Both starting tackles, Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, graded out within the top five run blockers at any position last year per Pro Football Focus. Now they bring center Alex Mack over who played in Shanahan’s scheme back with the Falcons. They have the speedy but injury prone veteran Raheem Mostert as well as the rookie they traded up to grab in Trey Sermon. Even if it’s a split backfield, they should present some value but, if one guy can run away with this job, they are going to be sitting pretty behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Buffalo Bills
This one thus far has been a nightmare and it might just stay that way. Unlike some teams like New England that use a predictably split backfield with one running down back and one passing down back, this one is not really delineated that way. It’s much more of an even split which can be a headache for fantasy gamers. Singletary has skewed a little more pass heavy while Zach Moss is a little more run heavy but the split has been annoyingly close to the middle. This is an explosive offense though, capable of scoring a lot of points, and if one of them can run away with that role (or earn it via injury), the payoff could be huge.
Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders
These three are kind of lumped together here for a reason and that’s because we think we have a pretty good idea of who’s going to have what role. Melvin Gordon, Chase Edmonds, and Kenyan Drake all skew towards the passing game while Javonte Williams, James Conner, and Josh Jacobs all skew towards the running game. But any time there is uncertainty, there is rook for upside. You might just want to lean into your format whether it be PPR or standard. Or, if you have a hunch that one guy can really take over the full backfield, go all in.
New York Jets
The Jets show up here once again because the team is obviously in transition. The running back position is no exception. La'Mical Perine was drafted by the last regime, while Michael Carter was this new regime’s fourth-round pick. Ty Johnson has proven himself a helpful candidate for passing work while Tevin Coleman comes over with head coach Robert Saleh from the 49ers. It might just be a big split backfield but with players like Meckhi Becton and Alija Vera-Tucker, this run game could be ascending and someone might be able to capture a big share of the workload. This one isn’t as much of a coin flip as it is dumping the whole coin purse on the ground and picking one up.