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Rounding the Bases: Gausman, Bullpens & Middle Infielders

Wed, 22 May 2013 11:02:07 -0700

The Orioles need a starter on the bump. With Dylan Bundy currently resting his arm in the hopes that he will be able to avoid going under the knife, they will apparently turn to their other phenom on the hill, Kevin Gausman, Thursday. What should you be thinking about when considering whether Gausman is worth adding to you staff? The Orioles, Rays, Rockies and Nationals are dealing with some issues in their bullpens (I didn't even have the time to discuss the rocky situation that the Dodgers are currently trying to sort out with Kenley Jansen and Brandon League). What will those teams do moving forward in the 9th inning? Up the middle the Rays have a guy who is trending up while the Athletics have a guy that's heading south. We'll discuss.

ORIOLES TO CALL UP KEVIN GAUSMAN?

It sure seems like uber-prospect Kevin Gausman will be called up to start for the Orioles Thursday, and it doesn't figure to be a one and done scenario. For my thoughts on what the expectations should be with Gausman, hint you should add him in all leagues, see The Future Is Now.

Howard Bender gives his thoughts on Gausman in More Rookie Love.

THE BULLPEN MADNESS CONTINUES

The two most prolific closers in baseball last season are a total mess right now.

Jim Johnson led baseball last year with 51 saves. This season he has 14 saves, but of late he's been a disaster, and honestly, that's being kind. JJ has done the following over his last four outings: two loses, three blown saves and he's allowed nine hits and eight runs over 3.1 innings. Atrocious #2. Here is what I wrote about him in my Preseason Draft Guide:

“That is not the type of pitcher you want working the 9th inning because so much of his success is dependent on balls finding his fielders gloves. I'll give the guy his due, he's had an amazing 62 percent ground ball rate the last two years, but he was a bit fortunate last year. That 2.49 ERA should have been a run higher, and there's little chance he allows just three homers again if he throws 68.2 innings. Plus, he also bested his career BABIP by .028 points. This is not a closer I would be targeting on draft day.”

So let's review his work thus far.

His ground ball rate has dropped from 62 percent to 51 percent.
He's allowed three homers in 22.1 innings. He allowed three in 68.2 last year.
His BABIP has gone from .251 to .306.

Hey, they don't call me The Oracle for nothing.

It's not likely that he'll lose his job unless this continues, but he has to be on alert. My best guess as to who the next guy in line would be Darren O'Day who has a 1.74 ERA this season and has 91 Ks in his last 87.2 innings dating back to the start of last season.

Fernando Rodney had one of the 10 greatest relief seasons of all-time last year and that has bought him a lot of rope in Tampa this year. Still, how long can the Rays continue to ride him in the 9th inning? It's one thing to blame bad luck or the odd long ball for a relievers struggles, but Rodney has walked 16 batters in 18 innings. Sixteen. Atrocious. The 25 Ks are great, but you just don't deserve to get the ball with the game on the line if your walk rate is 8.00 per nine. Rodney has reverted to being the pitcher he was for a decade before last season. There I said it. I don't get why the team doesn't go with Joel Peralta who has a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.43 K/9 and 2.75 K/BB. Actually I do. Since he's the only trustworthy arm in the pen Joel's being called on whenever the game is on the line whether it's the seventh or eighth inning doesn't matter. Rodney is still the guy, but I have to think the frustration level is pretty elevated right now.

Some other pens to take note of...

Rockies Pen

Rafael Betancourt hurt his groin Tuesday night, there was some inflammation around some scar tissue in his groin according to tests, but it seems like he will avoid a trip to the DL. If the injury slows him down, who takes over? Manager Walt Weiss isn't ready to anoint anyone as the #2 man quite yet, so I'll list the three names that most likely would get a shot if Betancourt misses time (he thinks he could return to action Friday).

Matt Belisle has a big arm, and he can get a grounder, but he's also struggling a bit as well with a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP while allowing 12 hits in his last eight innings.

Rex Brothers has allowed one run in 22 outings this season and he's racked up 21 Ks in 20.1 innings. He's got 104 punchouts in his last 88 innings.

Wilton Lopez was great last year with a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but he doesn't have a “big” arm, and his performance this season has merely been solid (he's only walked three batters in 23.2 innings though his WHIP is still 1.48).

My money would be on Brothers.

Nationals Pen

Rafael Soriano has blown three save chances this season, including his last two. He figures to still be in charge of the Nationals pen, but there has to be a little bit of trepidation for his owners, no? Soriano has only struck out 15 batters in 20 innings this season and there is always the ever present specter of an injury. Drew Storen would likely be the top choice as a fall back option, but he too is struggling with a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in a setup role, so Soriano is likely safe for now, that is unless the Nats might be interested in turning to the man who led them in saves last year with 32, Tyler Clippard (2.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP in 18 outings).

MIDDLE INFIELDERS

I continually try to tell people that Jed Lowrie is not someone that anyone should be counting on in mixed leagues. I know that it ain't easy to find a big bat at shortstop, and that he's appeared in eight games at second base this season which means he also qualifies there in some leagues, but I feel like people are being seduced by the dark side with Lowrie. Here is why.

He's always hurt (he injured his right foot Tuesday night, though x-rays showed no break and he's hopefully of returning to the lineup Friday). Lowrie played his first game in 2008. The past five years he's failed to appear in 100 games in any season. He hasn't done it once.

Second, he's really not a very good hitter. I will give him this, he might have 20 homer power if he could play a full season. Still, per 500 at-bats in his career he's averaged 14 homers and 68 RBIs. Does that really get you excited? Doesn't for me.

He's stolen a total of five bases in his career. Yippee.

So he better be a strong average producer right? He's not. For his career he's hit .257. 'But Ray, he's turned it around this season. The dude is hitting .301.' Sure he's hitting .301, but it's been 45 games. What you should note is that he's a .257 career hitter. You should note that he's hit better than .260 in just one of the previous five seasons. Sure he hit .333 in April, but guess what he's hitting in May? How about .254. I may not not be the smartest kid in class, but the number that stands out to me is the .333 mark in April. You can take that hot month as who Lowrie really is if you want, but I'll take him to be the hitter he's been for the past five years and the one he has been in May thank you.

Kelly Johnson hit .222 and .225 the last two years causing folks to avoid him on draft day. As I pointed out before the season started, there was still some good going on here. From 2010-12 there were only two second sackers in baseball who had 16 homers and 13 steals in each of those three seasons. Not Robinson Cano. Not Dustin Pedroia. Not Ian Kinsler. The two that went 16/13 each year were Brandon Phillips and Mr. Kelly Johnson. Thus far this season Johnson has eight homers and four steals putting him on pace to get to those two numbers for a fourth straight season. That's a nice power/speed combo for a middle infielder. However, the goodness doesn't stop there with Johnson.

Kelly is hitting .273. Your initial reaction might be that there's no way he can sustain that pace. Well, he did hit .287 in 150 games in 2008 and .284 in 154 games in 2010 so he's certainly performed at this level before. His .310 BABIP is only up .002 points from his career mark. His line drive rate is awful though, 13 percent, but given that he's been over 20 percent each of the past three years you have to feel pretty confident that number will come up the rest of the way. If it does, there is a real chance he betters his career .255 batting average. That should make you even more interested in Johnson, but there's still the cherry on top of this sundae.

Since 2007 Kelly had appeared in only one game at a position other than second base. This season he's appeared in 21 games in the outfield making him 2B and OF eligible in virtually every league. How about that for adding some value to a player.

DID YOU KNOW... ?

Allen Craig, on pace to hit .307 with 112 RBIs and... seven homers. Hello Tommy Herr! By the way, Herr had an eerily similar season in 1985 for the Cardinals hitting .302 with eight homers and 110 RBIs.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT. For more of Ray's analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys' Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone's questions.

Rounding the Bases: More Rookie Love as Kevin Gausman Gets the Call

Wed, 22 May 2013 06:57:32 -0700

It’s time again. Are you ready? Got your waiver trigger finger locked and loaded? With the news breaking that the Orioles are calling up Kevin Gausman, their number one pick (fourth overall) in the 2012 First –Year Player Draft, to start against the Blue Jays on Thursday, fantasy owners are tripping over each other as the run to the waiver wire to pick up the “next big thing.” We’ve already gone through Tony Cingrani, Jose Fernandez and Jurickson Profar, all youngsters rushed up to the big leagues and into fantasy stardom, so adding Gausman to the fray not only seems logical, but expected. Now the question is…is he worth it?

For those who opt not to scout the youngsters who are expected to arrive and make an impact on the 2013 season, Gausman was widely considered the best pitching prospect in the 2012 draft. He has a killer fastball, a solid change-up, and was developing a breaking ball (likely a slider) during his senior year at LSU prior to being drafted. The Orioles started him out in the New York Penn League, Low-A ball, instead of their rookie league and loved what he had so much that he was yanked after just two three-inning starts and sent right up to the Carolina League where he would face High-A competition. He got beaten up in his first outing but then turned things around immediately and was virtually lights-out in his final two starts of the season.

After a strong showing during spring training this year, the Orioles were so impressed with his development, that they had Gausman open up the season at Double-A Bowie. Right? After just 15 innings, he was already being advanced. And rightfully so, apparently, as he has now made eight starts and amassed a 3.11 ERA with a 49:5 K:BB over just 46.1 innings. He is killing it in the Eastern League and with Wei-Yin Chen hitting the DL this week, the Orioles feel like it’s time to promote their prized right-hander.

So how important will Gausman be to the fantasy world? Well, in all actuality, probably just as important as any other highly-touted rookie. In keeper leagues, his value is immense; especially when he’s advanced this quickly. In re-draft leagues though, probably not as much. The Marlins’ Fernandez has been a solid pick-up because the team doesn’t really have much in the way of alternatives, but the Orioles are really only making this move because of injury, similar to what happened with the Reds and Cingrani and the Rangers with Profar. They can afford to test the waters with the rookie because they know they will go back to their major league talent once they are at full health. Regardless of how well they perform, the team knows that their time spent in the bigs will be a limited one for now. Later on in the season is a different story. For now, though, this move is temporary.

So be careful with what you invest at this point in time. Chen has an oblique issue and should return once his 15 days on the DL are served. There is a strong chance that, even with just Freddy Garcia at the back end of the rotation, the Orioles send Gausman back once he [Chen] does come back and they continue the season, business as usual. Now obviously there’s a chance that Gausman sticks around longer, but he’s going to have to be beyond impressive for that to happen. Is it possible? Sure. But given the fact that he hasn’t thrown 50 innings beyond the Double-A level, it’s a remote chance at best. He might have an impressive start or two, but once major league hitters get a better look at him, things are going to be tough. I’d definitely kick the tires here and see what’s what, but in truth, I’m not dropping anyone of substantial quality to get him. As exciting as it can be to own and start such a hyped up prospect, I’m not upsetting my apple cart for a temporary starter.

Now let’s hit the highlights from Tuesday…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Mike Trout, OF LAA

4-5, 2 R, 2B, 3B, HR, 5 RBI, SB

Well, it’s only fitting that I tell you to hedge your bets on a big-time rookie and then turn around and make last year’s biggest rookie prize the day’s Fantasy Beast. But believe me, as good as Gausman is, he’s no Mike Trout. The talent level with Trout is completely off the charts and if you take even the quickest of glances, at his numbers, you can see just how massive a talent he really is. He gets the nod here for his first career cycle. The Mariners didn’t know what hit them in the 12-0 romp by the Angels and Trout was just a madman. He even kicked in a stolen base just so his fantasy owners had a little something in every category. And now, after a quiet start that had most people freaking out about his added weight in the offseason, He is hitting .293 with nine homers, 34 RBI and nine stolen bases which puts him on pace for, at worst, a 30-30 season. Fantasy Beast of the Day? More like Fantasy Beast of the Decade.

Fantasy Highs

Daniel Descalso, 2B STL	3-3, 3 R, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, BB
Chris Dickerson, OF BAL	3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Jimmy Paredes,, OF, HOU	3-3, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB
Max Scherzer, SP DET	W, 1.13 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, 7 K
Dan Straily, SP OAK	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.29 WHIP, 5 K

We’ve got some new faces in this section here, but to be honest, this group hardly seems like it’s got the ability to make more than just the random appearance. Chris Dickerson is a fourth outfielder, at best, who only got the start because Adam Jones needed to take a day off from the field. His two home runs were nice, but there’s probably not a single fantasy owner who had him active.

The same goes for Daniel Descalso who got a rare start for the Cardinals. The usual middle infield tandem is Pete Kozma and Matt Carpenter, so while this was a great day for him, again, it’s highly doubtful that a single fantasy owner reaped the benefits. Descalso should be right back on the bench come Wednesday’s game.

Jimmy Paredes might have a bit more staying power actually as Astros manager Bo Porter said that Paredes was going to be one of his starting outfielders for the foreseeable future. Probably at least until Justin Maxwell comes back. But Paredes is really just average at best and maybe if you play in a real deep AL-only league will he have some value. But he doesn’t have much in the way of power, so it’s his speed that you will be looking for. How much of that you see if obviously dependent on whether or not he can improve that .311 on-base percentage.

Not much more we need to say about Max Scherzer that we don’t already know. Nice to see a veteran presence in this section though, that’s for sure. Scherzer continues to be a dominant force on the hill for the Tigers with his 6-0 record, his 10.83 K/9 and 3.61 ERA that will likely only get lower over the next few weeks.

Quite the outing for Dan Straily though, huh? Shutting down the Rangers like that was pretty damn impressive for a guy who gave up 10 earned runs over his previous two starts (9.1 innings). You had to show some real balls to start him in Arlington like that, so if you did, congrats. If you didn’t, totally understandable. He’ll take on the Giants in a Battle of the Bay game next and I’m thinking that I’m going to use him this time around…

Fantasy Lows

Charlie Blackmon, OF COL	0-5, 3 K
Mitch Moreland, 1B TEX	0-3, 3 K
Aaron Hicks, OF MIN	0-5, 3 K
Aaron Harang, SP SEA	L, 17.18 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, 4 K
Zack Greinke, SP LAD	L, 11.25 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 1 K

Any surprises here? Didn’t think so. Not even Zack Greinke who was making his second start since coming back from the broken collarbone. It ewas a tough match-up with the Brewers in a hitter’s park anyway, but he’s likely to be up and down for another start or two before he’s back to 100-percent. Buy low if you can, but if you own him, just be patient. He’ll be fine. Bit of a bummer that Mitch Moreland is slowing down lately, but it was a helluva ride though, wasn't it?

Key Injuries

Shane Victorino, OF BOS – hamstring (day to day)

Rafael Betancourt, RP COL – groin (day to day – headed for MRI)

Ronny Cedeno, SS HOU – illness (day to day)

Salvador Perez, C KC – hip (day to day)

Erick Aybar, SS LAA – knee (day to day)

Luis Cruz, 3B LAD – elbow (day to day)

Scott Van Slyke, OF LAD – leg (day to day)

Trevor Plouffe, 3B MIN – concussion (7-day DL)

Chris Stewart, C NYY – groin (day to day)

John Jaso, C OAK – leg (day to day)

Jed Lowrie, SS OAK – foot (day to day)

Carlos Ruiz, C PHI – hamstring (day to day)

Ryan Vogelsong, SP SF – hand (15-day DL)

David Freese, 3B STL – thumb (day to day)

Matt Joyce, OF TB – hamstring (day to day)

Jose Molina, C TB – hamstring (day to day)

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Rounding the Bases: Batters – The Pace Game

Mon, 20 May 2013 11:08:07 -0700

It's just past the quarter pole of the 2013 major league baseball season, so now is a good time to place the pace game. Where you aware that the struggling guy you hate really isn't struggling as badly as you thought? Or how about will that guy who has been all over the leader board – is it reasonable to expect his early season pace to continue on for the next 115+ games? We'll explore these thoughts and, hopefully, wake up from a slumber that has you missing some solid performances as well as alerting you to the fact that some of those hot starters you've been riding to a top spot in the standings might just be getting ready for a major slow down.

Jose Altuve is hitting a robust .333 on the season, well above his career .294 mark. He's also more than halfway to his total of 37 RBIs last year with 19 through just 40 games (he's been hitting third this season after batting leadoff last season). All of that is well and good and gives Altuve a ton of fantasy value, but the miniature second sacker was added in the fantasy game this season with the expectation that you could get some speed up the middle. After stealing 33 bases last season he's on a pace that would see him fall just short of 20 thefts this season. Would you rather have those 15 extra steals or .035 batting average points?

Norichika Aoki is proving himself to be one hell of a hitter. Aoki has produced eight hits over his last three games, and over his last 10 games he has racked up 20 hits. Twenty. He's raised his average from .301 to .333 in that time as he's hit a smoking .455 in 17 May games. After batting .288 last season Aoki has raised his career average up to .299. Could he reach that level this season? Certainly. He does have a lofty .340 BABIP which I could admit is sustainable if certain factors lined up, but there is one massive worry. Though his average and BABIP are elite right now, his line drive rate is simply pathetic. The league average is about 19-20 percent. Last season Aoki had a 16.9 percent mark. This season, that mark is down at 12.2 percent. Flat out, you cannot hit .300 with a mark under 15 percent unless you are the luckiest mo-fo in the world. It just cannot be done. Right now Aoki is living high on the hog, but it's all going to come crashing down if he doesn't start hitting some more balls on the barrel cause all those grounders will likely start finding fielders gloves (his ground ball rate is huge at 65 percent).

Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown last year hitting .330 with 44 homers and 139 RBIs. He's been even better this year. Cabrera is currently on a pace that would see him hit .387 with 40 homers and 170 RBIs. His OPS is also up to 1.116 after last year's .999 mark. The last time a player hit .387 with 170 RBIs? You have to go back to, well never. Chuck Klein just missed out at .386 with 170 RBIs in 1930. As great as Cabrera is you have to know his pace will slow, though his career bests in the three main categories are massively impressively: .344-44-139.

Chris Davis it hitting .313 and on pace for 45 homers and 150 RBIs. As I just noted, Miguel Cabrera has never done that. Do you really think that Chris Davis will? Davis is still producing runs with 12 RBIs in 15 May contests, but he's also hitting .255 while his OBP has gone from .442 in April to .339 in May. Which is the “real” Chris Davis? For his career he's a .263 hitter with a .319 OBP.

Omar Infante is hitting .313. Have you even noticed?

James Loney is hitting .356. He's a career .285 hitter who hit .249 last season. If Loney were to go 0-for-33 he would still be batting .285... his career average. Is it reasonable to expect him to continue along at this pace? Of course not. It should also be noted that he's on pace for more than 70 RBIs. The last time he had that many was in 2010, the last of three straight years in a row in which he plated at least 88 runners.

Kendrys Morales scored 61 times last season. This year he's on pace for the high 50's in runs scored. Given that he hit 22 homers last year and is on pace for another 20 this season, and that he plays virtually every day, that's just embarrassing. Toss in that he's not stolen a single base since the start of last season, and that he's hitting in the .260's in those 176 games, and it's clear that he's nothing other than a place holder as a corner infield option in mixed leagues.

Mike Morse has 10 bombs but only 17 RBIs, a pace that would see him better 35 homers with about 75 RBIs. How many times has a guy gone deep 35 times with 75 or less RBIs? How about never. Morse isn't likely to reach 35 homers, but if he stays healthy he's got a shot at 75 RBIs, one would think.

Jean Segura advice – trade him now. It should be obvious that he's at his peak with nowhere to go but down. Do I really need to break down the numbers to tell you that? OK, fine. Here goes. The .364 batting average will not be sustained. Only one shortstop in the 21st century has hit .350 in a season (Nomar Garciaparra hit .372 in 2000 and .357 in 1999). Segura also has what I'm going to call an unsustainable .394 BABIP. Segura, thanks to the average, is getting on base at a .406 clip. That mark was .321 last year with the Brewers, and his minor league mark was .367, just three points behind his current batting average. In 399 minor league games Segura is the owner if league average type slugging percentage of .439. His mark through 41 games is .580. Seriously, you think that is sustainable? In a season of 502 at-bats there have been only five seasons in baseball history, by everyone who has ever played shortstop, in which their SLG was .580 (Nomar did it once and A-Rod did it four times). Segura is on pace for more than 25 homers thanks to a 20.0 percent HR/F ratio. Segura didn't hit a single homer in 151 at-bats last season. Here are his homer totals the past three years: 10 in 130 games in 2010, four in 75 games in 2011 and seven in 147 games last season. Oh yeah, his HR/F ratio the past two years in the minors was a mere 2.1 percent. I mean seriously folks. You won't be able to say that I didn't warn you.

Are you Joey Votto owners out there still complaining? Seriously, what were you expecting? The guy is hitting .349 with a .473 OBP, .530 SLG and 1.004 OPS. Do you know how many seasons that Albert Pujols reached all three of those numbers? How about zero. What about Miguel Cabrera? How about zero. Votto has gone deep in two of his last three games. How much does that chance his homer outlook? Remember, a 30 homer hitter, over the course of the 26 week major league season, hits an average of 1.15 homers a week. Let's say a guy goes two weeks without a homer. Let's say in week three he hits three homers. Guess what? That guy would be on a 26 homer pace, just off the 30 homers people would be expecting, and well within the realm of reasonable expectations. Three days ago Votto was on a 16 homer pace, but after going deep twice he's on pace for about 23. Oh yeah, before you say that's still a disappointing mark you should note that over the previous four seasons Votto has averaged 29 homers a season though he's only reached 30 homers one time in his career. Votto just isn't a big time home run bat. He's more of a line drive hitter who pounds balls into the gaps with the best of them.

Vernon Wells is hitting .286. The last two years he's hit .218 and .230. The last time he hit .286 was back in 2008. Wells is on pace for nearly 40 homer this season. The last time he hit 30 homers was back in 2010, and in a career that began in earnest in 2002 he's gone deep 30 times three times with a high of 32 bombs. Wells last scored 80 runs in 2009. He's on pace to scored about 85 runs this season. Wells last knocked in 90 runs in 2006. He's on pace to get there this season. Over the last five seasons Wells has reached double-digits in steals once. He's on pace for about 15 steals this season. Do you really think he reaches all of those totals this year? Now would be a good time to sell.

JURICKSON PROFAR

Finally, you want to know what I think about the Rangers calling up Jurickson Profar? Here's a three minute audio with my thoughts.

Rounding the Bases: The Arrival of Jurickson Profar

Mon, 20 May 2013 05:56:11 -0700

Sunday was a big day for Jurickson Profar and his fantasy owners. With news that Ian Kinsler was headed to the disabled list with an intercostal strain, the Rangers decided it was finally time to bring up their prized prospect who hit .326 (28-for-86) over his last 21 games at Triple-A Round Rock and enjoyed his first career two-homer game Saturday night. He was in uniform, but he did not play. It is not yet known how long Kinsler will be out for, but it would seem that this is an injury that probably won’t require more than the 15 day minimum. So the big questions are: for how long will Profar be up and what is his current fantasy value? Well, my fantasy heart goes out to the dedicated and hopeful who have been stashing the potential rookie of the year, because I’d have to say not long and not much if we’re talking about right now.

There’s no denying Profar’s overall level of talent. He is expected to be an elite infielder (originally a shortstop but moved to second After Elvis Andrus signed his eight-year contract extension) who should prove to be a very dangerous power/speed combo. Keeper league owners have been onto him for a couple of years now and his value on a long-term level is extremely high. But while the apparent opportunity to prove his worth is here, he’s going to have to go way beyond expectations to stay.

First off, the team announced that while Profar would play, he was going to be sharing second base duties with utility infielder Leury Garcia who received the starting nod Sunday. They haven’t announced how the time will be split, but one would think that if the Rangers have six games this week, he’ll play in at least four of them. It’s not that the Rangers doubt his ability to play at this level, but easing him just might be better, albeit conservative, in the end.

Second, there’s the strong likelihood that Kinsler is only lost for two weeks. He has already expressed an unwillingness to move over to first base and with the way Mitch Moreland has been playing recently, you wouldn’t want to make that switch anyway. So unless Profar is absolutely raking, it wouldn’t benefit the team to keep him up. Of course, Moreland could slow down and Kinsler could soften on his stance, but how long that takes is an unknown. You don’t want your top prospect idly sitting on the bench when he could be honing his skills and every day down at Round Rock.

Obviously if Profar starts to hit immediately and make a huge impact, serious decisions will need to be made, but it seems like the Rangers are keeping everything low key, possibly because they don’t see him staying beyond the two weeks right now. There are plans in place for the future, but this was an unexpected turn of events and the team doesn’t really seem ready for the full change.

If you’re a Profar owner, the temptation to activate him for this week is probably huge. However, I think you need to rein in your enthusiasm and lower your expectations before making moves you probably shouldn’t make. If you’re in a league with weekly roster moves and you have a legitimate full-time guy you can start, then you will probably want to keep Profar on the bench and go with the bigger opportunity to rack up stats. If you make daily roster moves you can play the match-ups each day, but again, if you have a solid guy you can start over him, for right now, I would lean that way. You can go with Profar if he comes out swinging hard, but I wouldn’t lead with that.

It all might be a wait-and-see situation for now, but you shouldn’t go into this week expecting big things from the kid. You can certainly hope for the best, but don’t be reliant on him. This really isn’t how the Rangers wanted things to unfold and that alone could be the ultimate deciding factor regardless of how he produces. The last thing you want to do is pin your hopes on a guy who is likely to be back in the minors in two weeks’ time.

Now let’s hit those Sunday highlights…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Miguel Cabrera, 3B DET

4-4, 4 R, 3 HR, 5 RBI, BB

Wow. Just wow. Miguel Cabrera is just such an amazing hitter. But is there anything I can tell you now that you don’t already know? While he may be a phenomenal guy to watch, he sure is boring to write about. How many different ways can I tell you how awesome he is? And really….what kind of fantasy advice can I really provide with regards to his game? Um, start him? If I gave you any advice other than that, I’d be wrong. So if you own him, enjoy him. If you don’t, too bad. Trading for him right now would be an exercise in futility. You wouldn’t be able to acquire him without completely destroying the rest of your team.

Fantasy Highs

Everth Cabrera, SS SD	2-6, 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 SB
Yonder Alonso, 1B SD	3-4, 3 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI
David Murphy, OF TEX	2-3, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI, BB
Justin Masterson, SP CLE	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 11 K
Ricky Nolasco, SP MIA	W, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 11 K

Give it up for the speed of Everth Cabrera. With a three-steal day Sunday, Cabrera has now stolen a base in each of his last five games and now has a league-leading 18 steals on the year. The batting average is still a bummer, but he’s cut down on the strikeouts and improved the walk rate, so the OBP is strong. Not many believed in him to repeat as the NL’s stolen base champion, but so far he’s looking like a pretty safe bet.

Yonder Alonso hit his second home run in as many days and now has six on the year. With a .290 average and 25 RBI, he’s proving to be a valuable asset as a corner infielder. Over his last seven games, he’s 10-for-25 (.400) with two home runs, four RBI and five runs scored and will spend half of the upcoming week in hitter-friendly Arizona.

While I’m not yet sold that David Murphy is completely out of the woods from a slump that helped drag his average down to the current .215 mark, it’s encouraging to see him with his second two-hit game in his last four. A bit more consistency before I endorse him, but he definitely has the skill set to be a regular in your lineup. Provided, of course, that he builds off of this and doesn’t revert back.

You have to love being a Justin Masterson owner lately as the 28-year old right-hander has been outstanding lately with three consecutive quality starts in which he’s posted a collective 1.18 ERA and a 27:7 K:BB over 23 innings. He does have a tough match-up this week with Boston, a team that knocked him around for four runs on 11 hits over five innings. He’s also just 2-1 with a 5.29 ERA through his last three starts at Fenway.

And then there’s good ol’ Ricky Nolasco. He pitched a gem here against Arizona and now has two quality starts in his last three outings, but let’s face it. The guy is far too inconsistent for you to trust him regularly. Personally, I’d keep him on the bench this week as he faces the White Sox at hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular. You don’t need that kind of ratio blow-up this week, do you?

Fantasy Lows

Anthony Rizzo, 1B CHC	0-4, 3 K
Joe Mauer, C MIN	0-4, 3 K
Mark Reynolds, 1B CLE	0-4, 3 K
Dan Haren, SP WAS	L, 12.60 ERA, 2.20 WHIP, 5 K
Aroldis Chapman, RP CIN	L, 54.00 ERA, 9.00 WHIP

That’s some load of talent here in this section today, huh? About the only one who really belongs here regularly now is Dan Haren. His struggles will likely continue, but the other four are probably just passing through. OK, maybe Mark Reynolds circles back for a few extra appearances based on strikeouts.....

Key Injuries

Stephen Drew, SS BOS – back (day to day)

Zack Cozart, SS CIN – illness (day to day)

Ronny Cedeno, SS, HOU – illness (day to day)

Bud Norris, SP HOU – back (day to day)

Luis Cruz, 3B LAD – elbow (day to day)

Aramis Ramirez, 3B MIL – knee (day to day)

Chris Stewart, C NYY – groin (day to day)

John Jaso, C NYY – leg (day to day)

Ryan Howard, 1B PHI – knee (day to day – headed for MRI)

Andrew McCutchen, OF PIT – knee (day to day)

Jose Molina, C TB – hamstring (day to day)

Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX – ribs (15-day DL)

Bryce Harper, OF WAS – knee (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: Big Papi Continues to Shine and Other Thoughts from Saturday

Sun, 19 May 2013 07:31:50 -0700

While Sunday is normally a day of rest for most, we fantasy baseball players need to be at our sharpest. The week is wrapping up and the waiver wire is a hotbed of action. We have to go through each team, check playing time situations, pore over injury reports, and see who’s hot and whose cold spell is pushing them closer and closer to bench time. From there, it’s checking next week’s match-ups and, for those in leagues with weekly moves, it’s all about planning the course of attack for the next six or seven days. We’re only two months in and this type of due diligence needs to be followed each and every week. It’s the dedicated ones who rise to the challenge while the casual fan whose interest drifts in and out starts to suffer.

Is that enough of a pep talk for you? Are you ready to get into baseball now? The weekends are always jam-packed with crucial information to help move you along to next week, so let’s stop with the early morning pleasantries and get right to it starting with Saturday’s…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

David Ortiz, DH BOS

3-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, BB

The guy just keeps going and going. Every time you think he’s about done, he always manages to wage a comeback and put up a day like this. And obviously he does is more than just for the day, otherwise he wouldn’t be as coveted around your league as he is. I’ve never been a huge fan because of the limited position flexibility, but at some point you just have to realize that it’s about getting the most production out of every position and of that means clogging up your utility spot with David Ortiz, then so be it. All too often you see people rotating guys in and out and still, they don’t get the same production that this tub of goo gives you.

Fantasy Highs

Elvis Andrus, SS TEX	5-5, 3 R, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 SB
Robinson Cano, 2B NYY	2-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
Matt Joyce, OF TB	3-5, 2 R, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
Brandon McCarthy, SP ARI	W, CG, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 5 K
Bronson Arroyo, SP CIN	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 6 K

As we go through the top performers from Saturday, I realized that I don’t really need to say anything about a lot of these guys. They’re no –brainer fantasy starts and even if they’re playing a little cold at the moment, they’re still must-starts as they can catch fire at any moment. So let’s skip talking about how amazing Robinson Cano is and we can obviously gloss over Elvis Andrus’ name as well. Both are in your lineup day in and day out and if they aren’t, then they better not have a game that day because you’re obviously over-thinking things. No need to micro-manage to the point where you’re sweating each and every lineup choice each and every day. Sometimes you just have to leave your guys alone and let the chips fall where they may.

Some guys, however, you just have to get out of your lineup for certain reasons. Like when the Rays are facing a left-hander, you have got to keep Matt Joyce on the bench. I mean, talk about a much-needed platoon. Joe Maddon usually keeps him on the bench anytime there’s been a southpaw on the mound, but sometimes you have to make an on-game sacrifice and leave the lineup as it. Joyce has found himself against lefties 17 times this season and he’s now sporting a .059 average against them with no home runs and no RBI, making him a career .191 hitter against them. Obviously the Rays were facing a righty here.

Don’t look now but it would appear as if things have finally clicked for Brandon McCarthy. After a not-so-impressive first month, May has looked a whole lot brighter for him. In fact, if you look at each start this month, you’ll see that he’s actually improved each and every time. He’s now thrown three straight quality starts, culminating with this complete-game shutout. For the month now, he is 1-0 with a 2.15 ERA with a 19:5 K:BB over 29.1 innings. His walk and strikeout rates have remainined the same, but he’s allowing much fewer base-runner (1.02 WHIP) and is enjoying a much better .261 BABIP as opposed to the .396 mark he endured last month. While that BABIP is a bit lower than where it should normally be, it’s actually a bit closer to his career mark, so while there may be a splash of regression, we’re not talking about a whole lot. I’d be looking to buy on him right now.

When I turned on the TV here on Saturday and saw the Reds/Phillies game being broadcast, I knew that this would be A. the best time to start Bronson Arroyo and B. the best time to warn you off Bronson Arroyo. Maybe it’s just me, but it always seems like Arroyo flourishes in one of these nationally televised games, everyone runs out to pick him up, and those who are successful, end up getting bit in the ass as he subsequently flounders over the next few starts. I haven’t checked the data on his performance level during a national broadcast, but it’s got to be pretty darn good. Watch his ownership percentage climb this week and then watch him toss 6 innings of five-run ball – not good enough to help you in any way, but just good enough for you to give him another shot. And that’s where he’ll get you…

Fantasy Lows

John Mayberry, OF PHI	0-4, 4 K
Conor Gillaspie, 3B CHW	0-5, 3 K
John Jaso, C OAK	0-3, 2 K
Roberto Hernandez, SP TB	ND, 22.50 ERA, 4.00 WHIP, 1 K
Anibal Sanchez, SP DET	L, 16.88 ERA, 4.13 WHIP, 2 K

Nothing much to say here other than a very ill-timed bad start for Anibal Sanchez. We all kne something like this was coming and it could have actually been a lot worse. Let’s hope a third solid outing against the Twins this week can make everything all right again.

Quick Hits

Just a few things to point out here that deserve a bit of attention….

With Johnny Cueto off the DL, the Reds opted to send Tony Cingrani back down to Triple-A. While most of us would have much preferred seeing Mike Leake get bumped, I think the move will help Cingrani in the long run. First off, his ailing shoulder should get some rest. And secondly, he’s not being demoted due to poor performance which should keep his confidence high. He goes back to Louisville knowing that he impressed during his call-up and there’s no doubt that he’ll be back at some point again this season. Stash him if you can, because you’ll definitely want him down the stretch.

Mark Reynolds may be tied for the home run lead, but he is now 4-for-22 (.182) over his last seven games so we’re already seeing that batting average come down to where we thought it would be.

It’s a week like Daniel Murphy has had that make me hate weekly roster move leagues. He’s 14-for-28 (.500) with a home run and four RBI over his last seven games. By the time I get him back into my lineup, he’s running ice-cold once again.

And finally, I sure hope none of you bought into the Tim Lincecum-hype from last week after he tossed seven shutout innings against the Braves last week. You had to know he was going to revert back, didn’t you?

Key Injuries

Jason Kubel, OF ARI – quadriceps (day to day)

Stephen Drew, SS BOS – back (day to day)

Shane Victorino, OF BOS – back (day to day)

Adam Dunn, 1B CHW – back (day to day)

Bud Norris, SP HOU – back (day to day)

Jarrod Dyson, OF KC – ankle (15-day DL)

Jerry Hairston, OF LAD – groin, knee (15-day DL)

Chris Stewart, C NYY – groin (day to day)

Brett Anderson, SP OAK – ankle (15-day DL)

Jaime Garcia, SP STL – shoulder (15-day DL)

Ian Kinsler, 2B TEX – ribs (day to day)

Bryce Harper, OF WAS – knee (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: Star Power Trumped By Emotional Reunion

Fri, 17 May 2013 06:51:32 -0700

Though it was a typical short slate of games Thursday, the night was jam-packed with big names and big stories. There was the much-anticipated match-up between Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish, Bryce Harper was back on the field to lend his support to teammate and fellow superstar Stephen Strasburg who was still looking for his first win since Opening Day, the Mariners were looking for their first series win at Yankee Stadium in what seemed like a bazillion years, and there were aces abound with the likes of Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Mat Latos and Matt Cain all taking the hill. Yet with all of that star power front and center and in the spotlight, none of it compared to what was actually my favorite part of the night.

I’m not normally a sucker for this kind of stuff, but for whatever reason this one got me. If you spend your late evening locked into MLB Network’s Quick Pitch, you’ve seen the highlight multiple times. If not, it went a little something like this: Ceremonial first pitch for the Rays game. Nine year old Alayna Adams was selected from among a group of military families to throw out the first pitch; her father, Lt. Col. Will Adams, soon to arrive home from a year-long tour in Afghanistan. On the stadium video screen she watched a message of love and encouragement from her dad, took the ball, and headed to the mound. After tossing a one-hopper towards the plate she locked eyes with the catcher who stood and removed his mask. Yes, it was her father. She sprinted towards home and leapt into his arms and the two stood there in the embrace you see here for a good thirty seconds.

Again, not sure why this tugged at my heartstrings so much as I’ve seen reunions like this hundreds of times, but it was a spectacular moment. Kudos to the Rays and the United Service Organizations for the collaborative effort and a big thanks to not just all of those who serve, but to their families as well for staying strong and supporting from back home. If you haven’t seen the video, check it out here in the Tampa Bay Times.

Now let’s talk some fantasy baseball from around the league…

OK, so how crazy was this match-up between Darvish and Verlander? The expectations of an incredible pitchers’ duel were high and numerous hot-hitting stars were being ignored in a variety of daily fantasy games. Well, that stupid Murphy guy and his moronic law made another untimely appearance and with two outs in the top of the third, Verlander was walking towards the dugout having given up eight earned runs. Darvish had allowed three of his own through the first two and Jhonny Peralta led off the bottom of the third with a solo home run, tagging Darvish for his fourth run of the game. I suppose the silver lining to be had was that Darvish insisted on staying in the game and tossed another five scoreless innings to smooth out that ERA, but again, what a disappointment from the perspective of someone hoping for an old-time classic pitcher’s duel. Not to mention what your WHIP and ERA looked like afterwards.

Getting back to the Rays/Red Sox game, if there’s one thing you can take away from this one it’s this: No, not that Alex Cobb is a stud, which is actually a proven truth these days; it’s that next season you need to smarten up, loosen the purse strings and buy yourself the Baseball Guys Draft Guide by Ray Flowers. Had you done that, Fernando Rodney’s three blown saves and 5.28 ERA would be someone else’s problem. In case you missed Ray rightfully patting himself on the back last week, here’s another look.

Overall, there wasn’t a whole lot of excitement from the Yankees/Mariners game, but a note of fantasy baseball importance was the injury to Andy Pettitte. Apparently concern isn’t all that high, but the 40-year old southpaw left with two outs in the fifth inning with a strained trapezius muscle, that place between your neck and shoulders where, if Mr. Spock grabs you, you lose consciousness. The team will wait to see how he feels Friday morning, but for now, there is no MRI scheduled which, I guess, is somewhat encouraging. We’ll find out over the weekend if he is going to make his next start.

I’m very curious to see what the White Sox do when Gordon Beckham, beginning a rehab assignment this weekend, returns from the disabled list. In his absence, Jeff Keppinger was moved over to the keystone and the team brought up Conor Gillaspie to man the hot corner. Keppinger has, surprisingly, been a complete disaster, batting .188 and striking out more often than usual. Gillaspie, on the other hand, is batting .294 with three home runs and seven RBI over a 36-game span. Sure, he’s being helped by a .360 BABIP, but what happens if he doesn’t cool off by the time Beckham is ready? He deserves to stay up and play and Beckham, who I had tabbed as a potential comeback player this year, should get the opportunity to play. That would put Keppinger on the bench which, I think, is where he needs to be. But we’ll obviously have to see how Robin Ventura handles it.

Maybe it was just a simple neck problem that was killing the numbers for Jonathon Niese after all. I’m certainly going to wait and see how he fares in his next start, but this was certainly an encouraging outing for fantasy owners. He’ll face another tough lineup in the Reds for his next outing so tread lightly but be hopeful.

The Brewers may have dropped one to Francisco Liriano and the Pirates, but fantasy owners are still enamored with them for one reason – Jean Segura. Oh baby is this kid good. The naysayers are coming down on this kid for his unexpected power displays and a high BABIP, but let’s focus on the real reason we drafted him and show some love for 14 stolen bases.

Now the Cincinnati/ Miami game, that’s where we saw a killer pitcher’s duel. Mat Latos and Jose Fernandez each looked amazing and it was unfortunate that the bullpens ruined this one. Steve Cishek was atrocious and it was a rare, poor outing for Aroldis Chapman. But for me, the big moment of this game was one of the rarest of sightings – a Juan Pierre home run! Pierre had hit a total of five home runs over the last six seasons, his last coming on June 23, 2012, so when he led the game off with a long ball, you expected a Bizarro night. Of course he got back to business and went hitless in his next four at-bats with one strikeout.

More trouble in pitching paradise as Matt Cain was, again, victimized by the long ball and coughed up a total of six earned runs over the first three innings of last night’s Rockies/Giants game. Sure, the Giants waged a comeback from the six-run deficit and Cain settled down to pitch effectively into the seventh inning, but the ace of the Giants staff is now sporting a 5.43 ERA through nine starts this season. The big question is why? His strikeout and walk rates are fairly close to his career averages and the batted ball data looks pretty normal save for an embarrassing 18.3-percent HR/FB. Perhaps it’s because he’s throwing more sliders and not getting ahead in the count early? Hitters just seem to be waiting on his fastball and when they guess right, BOOM! Something need to be fixed here and fixed fast.

And finally, a shout out to Stephen Strasburg who, for the first time in his professional career, pitched into the eighth inning. I’m sure there are a number of old-school hurlers out there laughing that it took the kid so long to go so far, but this is what we’re stuck with when teams coddle their starters. They get soft and can’t go the distance. Here’s hoping that the Nationals let him do it again, otherwise I’m going to have to stop addressing the team’s pitching situation and spend more time ridiculing Bryce Harper’s ridiculous haircut.

Thursday’s Best

Travis Snider, OF PIT	3-5, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, SB
Wilin Rosario, C COL	2-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI
Daniel Murphy, 2B NYM	4-4, 2 R, 2 2B, RBI, BB
Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS	W, 1.13 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4 K
Jonathon Niese, SP NYM	W, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3 K

Thursday’s Worst

Ike Davis, 1B NYM	0-5, 4 K
Mike Napoli, C BOS	0-3, BB, 3 K
Raul Ibanez, OF SEA	0-4, 3K
Justin Verlander, SP DET	L, 27.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3 K
Fernando Rodney, RP TB	L, BS, 40.50 ERA, 7.50 WHIP, 2 K

Key Injuries

Jarrod Dyson, OF KC – ankle (expected to land on 15-day DL)

Travis Hafner, DH NYY – shoulder (day to day)

Andy Pettitte, SP NYY – neck/shoulder (day to day)

Chris Stewart, C NYY – groin (day to day)

David Price, SP TB – triceps (15-day DL)

Ross Detwiler, SP WAS – undisclosed (day to day)

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Weekly Master Notes From Todd Zola

Thu, 16 May 2013 07:55:00 -0700

It’s funny how we sometimes have perceptions of certain players and are stubborn to change our minds, regardless of the current success. Granted, it is always best to look at the numbers behind the numbers to make sure the present outcomes are real. Yet, too often we just assume the player has been lucky for one reason or another and miss out on possible acquisition opportunities. We’ll take a look at four players that are better than you may think. Well, three for sure and a fourth that has changed my mind. You may have already been a believer.

Hisashi Iwakuma, P, Seattle Mariners – Previously, when I saw Iwakuma was scheduled, I checked to see if the Mariners were at home, and if they were, I’d consider him a safe start. If it was a road tilt, not so much. But now I’m fine with trusting Iwakuma almost anywhere. He’s not quite 100 percent matchup proof (I’m still sitting him in Arlington, the Bronx and maybe Anaheim) but by and large he’s in my active lineup every week.

It wasn’t even that Iwakuma’s splits were that extreme last season, though they certainly favored his time in Safeco Field. It’s more that overall, Iwakuma is a better pitcher now with an elevated strikeout rate and I’ll play anyone whiffing a hitter a frame almost anywhere. His control is also better though it’s still too early in the season to trust that it’s real whereas we are at the point where an increase in strikeouts is likely to be sustained, at least in part. Specifically, Iwakuma’s K/9 at home thus far is 8.8 with a miniscule 0.7 BB/9. On the road, his K/9 Is a tick higher at 9.0 while he is sporting a still respectable 2.1 BB/9.

Please keep in mind that intertwined with these excellent skills is some extremely good fortune as Iwakuma’s BABIP is .198 and that is sure to rise. And to be fair, some of his increased control could be working from the wind-up more due to the paucity of base runners. The hits will increase as will the runs, but I am confident that when the dust settles, Iwakuma’s skills will indicate a better pitcher than last season. It helps that he’s a groundball guy so even away from home, Iwakuma should do a good job keeping the ball in the yard.

Kyle Kendrick, P, Philadelphia Phillies – In the spring, Kendrick was lost in the aura of the big three. Now with Roy Halladay injured and Cole Hamels scuffling, Kendrick is battling Cliff Lee for the unofficial title of staff ace and in fact, his peripherals are remarkably similar to those of the veteran southpaw.

One of the stigmas I had with Kendrick is I prefer to stream or spot start with home match-ups and in my mind, Citizens Bank Park is a hitter’s haven. Actually, that’s not true. I know the numbers and in fact CBP plays neutral with respect to runs and is overall barely favorable for home runs. To be fair, it elevates homers for left-handers while slightly hindering them for righty swingers.

But even though I am cognizant that CBP isn’t that bad a park for hurlers, I was reticent to trust Kendrick due to his lack of dominance. His career K/9 is a paltry 4.8 with last season’s 6.6 the first season it cracked the 6.0 plateau. So far this season, Kendrick has maintained that level of punch outs but has also trimmed his walks to a skinny 1.7 BB/9. I expect that to rise, though not much as his career mark is 2.5. Over the second half of last season, his BB/9 was 2.1 so when added to this season, we have well over half a season of a walk rate around 2.0. A mid-six K/9 is rather pedestrian, but acceptable when free passes are scarce.

Now, even though I know there will be some correction with Kendrick when his BABIP regresses, I’m over my stigma and he’s in my lineup for every home start as well as for those slated for pitching in favorable road venues. He’ll give up some dingers, especially at home, but the damage will be minimal. On a personal level, it’s a good thing I have lost my “CBPhobia” as Kendrick’s exploits have helped at least partially mollify the carnage that Joe Blanton and Dillon Gee had inflicted to my pitching staffs.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers – Coming into this year, the party line was there was no way Gomez would be able to sustain his power gains. Now the smarts are saying there is no way he’ll continue to hit .368. Well, the smarts are likely right; a .439 BABIP is otherworldly and is due for a downturn. However, underneath this all is a continuation of some skills growth.

While most were focusing on Gomez’ power in March, my focal point was whether he would maintain a contact rate trending in the right direction. At least so far, Gomez has indeed continued to fan fewer times, albeit just a smidge less than last season. He’s still allergic to hearing the umpire bark, “Ball four, take your base” but we’re looking for baby steps, not miracles. My point is once that ethereal BABIP deflates, Gomez could sport an average a bit higher than some anticipate.

As for his power, Gomez is also continuing a trend of increasing HR/FB, though his fly ball percent is down so overall, his home run pace is on par with last season. That said, 20 homers from a guy on a pace to steal over 30 bases is pretty darned sweet. I was higher on Gomez than most coming into the season based on the HR/FB trending up.

But if you’re still expecting Gomez to slow down his homer output, I’ve got bad news. And if you think you can take solace in the fact that at least his average will soon plummet, I have really, really bad news for you. It will, but I foresee .275 going forward, well above his career average of .254.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks – I know, I should have seen this coming. But here’s the deal. I have a philosophy and I’m disciplined enough to stick with it. For me it’s about the process and sometimes, the process does not yield the expected results. I coined a saying I use as my forum signature – I’d rather be wrong for the right reason than right for the wrong reason. The idea is if I go with the odds, I’ll be right more than I’m wrong. In order to make this work, at times you need to accept being wrong. I was wrong about Goldschmidt.

Keep in mind that this time last season, Goldschmidt was platooning with Lyle Overbay. It’s not like he has the pedigree of Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt, you know, the dynamic duo we continually say will break out any day. Goldschmidt has never carried a strikeout-percent below twenty. In 2011, in his 177 plate appearance audition with the Snakes, it was an unsightly 30 percent. To his credit, last season it was a more respectable 22 percent. Though I’m from Massachusetts, when it comes to player analysis, I’m from Missouri – you need to show me. Goldschmidt needed to show me his gains in contact were real. And he has.

So far this campaign, Goldschmidt’s strikeout percent is 23, fundamentally the same as last season and we’re at the point where contact rates are close to stabilizing. Keep in mind 23 percent is still below average, even for a slugger, but it sure beats 30 percent. The fact that Goldschmidt is taking more walks serves to fortify the contact gains and help consider them sustainable. I wasn’t sure he could do it and he proved he could. Now factor in the man they call Goldie is on a pace for 40 HR and 16 SB and we have an ADP in the top twenty next season. Not bad for a guy who not so long ago was stuck in a platoon with Lyle Overbay.

Rounding the Bases: Are Expectations Being Met?

Wed, 15 May 2013 11:37:21 -0700

Justin Verlander is humming right along dominating batters as he always does. However, there are a few cracks emerging in the facade. Will the damn hold back the water, or is there reason to be concerned that we might be dealing with something that isn't quite as effective as one would think at first glance? Billy Butler started slowly but has picked it up of late. Were you honestly nervous? Howie Kendrick continues to get it done amidst little fanfare. Ike Davis is awful. Period. Michael Morse was white hot, then ice cold. What's the truth with him? On the bump Patrick Corbin has been fortunate, Matt Moore has one huge flaw he must overcome and Julio Teheran just might be figuring things out.

Is Justin Verlander Still An Ace?

Justin Verlander has a 1.93 ERA and 57 Ks in 51.1 innings so of course he is still a fantasy ace. Honestly, that was just a title to get you to read what I have to say (sneaky I know, sorry about that). The title really should have been something more along the lines of is Verlander as good as people expected him to be? 'But Ray, he has more than a K per inning and his ERA is under two, so what are you talking about?' Let's lay out the case.

From 2009-2012 Justin averaged at least 94.3 mph on his fastball as he is famously able to run up the heater late in games when he needs to (he often hits 98 mph late in games). However, this season his fastball is down at 92.2 mph, a career low and 2.6 mph below his career mark. People freaked out when Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez lost 2-3 mph off their fastballs. Why hasn't anyone noted the decrease in velo for Verlander?

The loss of mph hasn't effected his K-rate, his 9.99 K/9 mark would actually be the second best mark of his career. However, he's having a harder time locating his pitches. The last two years he's posted BB/9marks of 2.04 and 2.27. This year that mark is a full batter higher at 3.16. The last time he had a mark that high was 2008.

Verlander has always been a bit homer stingy, his career HR/9 mark is 0.77, but the mark has been ridiculously low this year as he's allowed one homer in 51.1 innings leading to a 0.18 mark. He's never had a season below 0.56 by the way.

His WHIP is 1.21. That would be a five year high.

It's early of course, but his .229 BAA would be a four year high.

It's far too early to preach nervousness, and as I noted I took some license with the title of this section (of course Verlander is still a fantasy ace). However, there are some cracks in the foundation that should let you know that there isn't a 2011 season coming down the pipe and that his ERA could go up, potentially by a full run, if he keeps pitching as he has to this point.

Batters to Watch

Billy Butler was hitting .228 with 20 RBIs two days ago. Now he's patting .268 with 27 RBIs in 36 games. Did you really think he was going to struggle all year? Come on now. Butler has been one of the more consistent hitters in baseball the past four years.

From 2009-12 he hit between .291 and .318.
From 2009-12 he had an OBP between .361-.388.
From 2009-12 he had an OPS between .822-.882.
From 2009-12 he had a GB/FB rate between 1.27-1.64.

He was a rock of stability. He should continue to be just that type of hitter this year. With his two game bonanza of offense he's now sitting with a .377 OBP and his OPS is .832. Exactly what should have been expected. When his BABIP normalizes, his current mark of .289 would be a career low (the number has been between .316 and .341 the past four years), his batting average will likely climb back up to expected levels. He's also sporting a 14.7 percent HR/F ratio which would be the second best mark of his career, though he's going to have a hard time topping 25 homers if he continues to flub along with his current 33.3 fly ball rate which is not a surprising mark given his 33.4 percent career rate. It's just not the fly ball rate you need to consistently hit 25+ homers.

Ike Davis is awful. Do I really need to say more? Here are the facts. The guys isn't a very good hitter, and his weaknesses can easily be exploited. When a pitcher makes a mistake he can hammer it into the seats, but when he makes his pitch Davis has no shot. Since the start of last season Davis has hit .217 over 637 at-bats. He's also struck out a whopping 181 times leading to a pathetic .299 OBP (to compare, the NL average since the start of last season is .326). Even his power, the 36 homers, has led to a mere .730 OPS which is eight points below the NL average. Face it, he's been a terrible offensive performer who's only redeeming quality is the home run. I have to think the average could come up to this career .244 mark, but given how awful he has been since the start of last season, and that his K-rate is up five percent this year from last, I find it hard to recommend adding him even if he's sitting on the waiver-wire.

Howie Kendrick has 18 RBIs and 13 runs scored, and people are saying to themselves 'oh well, just another blah season from Kendrick.' However, is that accurate? He's on pace to steal 16 bases, he's hit exactly 14 each of the past three years. He's already gone deep six times. That puts him on pace to challenge his career best mark of 18, even if he's unlikely to get there. He's hitting .294. Do you mean to tell me, honestly, that you wouldn't be excited to have a second baseman who hit .294 with 24 homers and 16 steals? What if the numbers were .300-25-15... would you feel better about that? I'll take Kendrick as my starter at second any time, and so should you.

Michael Morse hit six homers in his first seven games with the Mariners and everyone was convinced he was going to be an elite option in 2013. Now he's slumping and people are dropping him from their rosters. Oh ye fickle fantasy owner, how about exercising some patience? No, we can't do that can we? Here are the facts, and they might surprise you. (1) Morse is on pace to set a career high this season with 36 homers. Thirty six. (2) More has hit .289, .303 and .291 the past three years. He's a career .291 hitter. Do you really think he's going to suddenly morph into a sub .250 hitter? He's posted a BABIP of at least .330 each of the past three years. That mark is currently .277. I predict the average will come up, the power production will slow, and we'll be looking at a .280-25 type at seasons end, just what we all should have been expecting from the start.

Pitchers to Watch

Patrick Corbin is 6-0 and in eight starts he's yet to allow more than two runs in any start, all of which have lasted six innings mind you. The result is a wondrous 1.52 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the second year lefty from the D'Backs. You know what I'm going to say though... be wary of the regression monster. You know, even if you disagree with me about his overall outlook, that his W-L record will soon take a turn for the worse. You also have to know the ERA is going up. Where will it settle? The 3.54 mark he owns for his career is a good bet given his skill set. His K/9 is down this year at 6.92, and his BB/9 is up at 2.87 (7.23 and 2.10 last year). So he's striking out less and walking more but his ERA is down three runs (it was 4.54 last season). Right, that's going to continue. Given that he's spot on with his 1.46 GB/FB rate, it was 1.47 last year, you know where I'm going next, right? I'm talking homers and hits. Last year he allowed a league average 1.18 homers per nine. This year that number is down to 0.34. That mark will at least double, if not more. His BABIP last year was .317. This season that mark is .259. By the way, the mark that last two years in the minors, over 239.2 innings, was .335. Yeah, his BABIP is coming up. You have two choices. You can just ride the wave given that you paid nothing for him in mixed leagues (you might have even gotten him off waivers). You can trade him when his value is at it's peak. I'd investigate the trade route.

Matt Moore is 7-0 with a 2.44 ERA and 51 Ks in 48 innings. Fantastic work for the second year lefty who is living up to expectations. Alas, some concerns (I'm such a downer, aren't I?). Moore has allowed 1.31 homers per nine innings, that's a bit high. His 92.9 LOB is at least 10 points too high (last year the leading mark in baseball was 82.7 percent by Jeremy Hellickson). His BABIP is .193, exactly .100 points lower than last year. It's coming up. Finally, the walks. Always a bit erratic, Moore walked a poor 4.11 batters per nine last season. This year the mark has taken a turn for the worse as it's risen up to 4.69 per nine. Last season there were 14 men who walked 3.50 batters per nine or more while throwing at least 162 innings. Of that group of 14 none posted an ERA under 3.61. NONE. Moore is a full batter above that walk rate right now, and then a little bit extra. Last year three men walked more than 4.50 batters per nine. Their names and ERA's follow: Ricky Romero (5.22 per nine, 5.77 ERA), Edinson Volquez (5.17 per nine, 4.14 ERA) and Ubaldo Jimenez (4.84 per nine, 5.40 ERA). Moore better cut the walks, or that ERA is going to climb, a lot.

Julio Teheran is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the year. He's also sporting a terrible 5.66 K/9 mark. He's certainly improved of late allowing just one homer in four starts after being taken deep five times in his first three games, and he's thrown at least six innings in three of his last four starts (5.1 innings in the other outing). He's also allowed a total of eight earned runs in his last four starts. He's an NL-only option on the bump, but it's still a reach to trust him in mixed leagues.

Rounding the Bases: The End of a Streak

Wed, 15 May 2013 05:42:00 -0700

Whether they’re hot or cold, streaks play an all-important role both in the real baseball world and the fantasy one. You get a player who goes on a hot streak and he can carry your team for a pretty significant amount of time. If he’s on a cold one, you best be getting him out of your lineup fast or he’s liable to do some seriously damage to your team. Cold streaks are always feared, but when you’ve got someone on a hot streak, there’s nothing better. Not only do you reap the benefits in the standings, but the value of the player grows tremendously on the trade market. But like all good things, hot streaks always come to an end. It’s inevitable. And on Tuesday night, one of the better hot streaks we’ve seen recently finally came to a close.

The streak began on August 8, 2012 when this pitcher threw eight shutout innings to beat the Chicago White Sox. From there, he made 17 more starts without taking a single loss. That’s right…18 straight games without a losing decision. Over that span, he notched 10 wins and posted a 2.20 ERA with 74 strikeouts. Now the strikeouts, or lack thereof should I say, tell you that it’s not a Clayton Kershaw, David Price or Justin Verlander , but can you guess who it is?

How about Jeremy Guthrie?

Crazy right?

It just goes to show you that even the most ordinary and overlooked players can catch fire at any time and put your team on his shoulders. Now obviously that streak was split between two seasons, so only a part of it helped you out this season, but even that was a huge boost to fantasy owners. Despite such a strong run during the latter half of 2012, Guthrie was ignored in most drafts this season and he was nothing more than a cheap waiver claim early on in April. So the fact that, even with Tuesday’s six-run beating, he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 30 strikeouts over 54.1 innings, means that fantasy owners who owned and started him saw a significant increase in value based on his cost. He pitched like a beast at virtually no cost to youy and that’s what wins fantasy leagues.

Now does he pick right back up where he left off or is this last start going to ruin him? Well, based on his peripherals, I’d say the time to sell-high is now. Actually it was a week and a half ago, but now is good too. His next start comes against a struggling Houston team, so he should pitch another solid game amidst your negotiations. But don’t linger for too long. The last thing you want to do is hold onto him for too long and suffer the potential cold streak that could develop. With an FIP of 5.54 and a SIERA of 4.78, the outlook for the future doesn’t look too good.

But before we write him off, let’s just take a moment to acknowledge and say thank you. We appreciate you, Jeremy, if only for a short while.

Now let’s hit the highlights…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

5-5, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI

For as long as Carlos Gonzalez remains a member of the Rockies, he is going to remain a top flight player. The dude just rakes at home. Rakes. But what I find impressive is that this season, he’s hitting better on the road. Much better, in fact. He’s batting .284 with three home runs and 11 RBI at Coors Field, but on the road, he’s hitting .338 with six home runs and 11 RBI and he’s done it in three fewer games. It’s very likely that those trends reverse as the season progresses, but still, you’ve got to love the change here. Makes him look a bit more legitimate, particularly on the trade market.

Fantasy Ups

Carlos Beltran, OF STL	3-5, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI
Howie Kendrick, 2B LAA	3-4, 2 R, HR, RBI, SB
Mitch Moreland, 1B TEX	2-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Clayton Kershaw, SP LAD	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 11 K
Homer Bailey, SP CIN	W, CG, 2.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10 K

Seeing Carlos Beltran, Clayton Kershaw and even Howie Kendrick here doesn’t really cause much surprise, does it? Each one is having more than just a solid season and thus far, earning their draft value. Heck, I’m sure Kendrick is even surpassing his. But Mitch Moreland had himself a day that we can probably put the ol’ sun shining on a dog label here, and as for Homer Bailey, there’s less for me to get excited about due to a lack of real consistency. Over his last seven starts, he’s actually been lit up pretty hard in three of the outings, so you’re at a point where streaming is likely your best option. Now who to stream against…..? That’s a whole other story.

Fantasy Downs

Brandon Crawford, SS SF	0-4, 4 K
Jonny Gomes, OF BOS	0-4, 3 K
Dan Uggla, 2B ATL	0-4, 3K
Carlos Villanueva, SP CHC	L, 12.60 ERA, 2.40 WHIP, 1 K
Jim Johnson, RP BAL	L, BS, 18.00 ERA, 4.00 WHIP

Not much surprise here either although this is a rare appearance for Jim Johnson. He’s an extremely reliable closer and this is actually his first blown save of the year. What can you do…? Also take notice of Brandon Crawford who started off like a hitting machine, only to come back down to earth finally.

Key Injuries

B.J. Upton, OF ATL – shoulder (day to day)

Wei-Yin Chen, SP BAL – oblique (15-day DL)

Chris Perez, RP CLE – shoulder (day to day)

Jose Altuve, 2B HOU – bereavement list (day to day)

Bud Norris, SP HOU – back (day to day)

Josh Beckett, SP LAD – groin (day to day)

Travis Hafner, DL NYY – shoulder (day to day)

Brandon Morrow, SP TOR – back (missing Wednesday start)

Bryce Harper, OF WAS – knee, shoulder (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: Pitching Dominates the Weekend

Mon, 13 May 2013 06:44:41 -0700

For the months leading up to, and right up until the very last moment before your draft, I’ll always be one of the first to tell you to wait on starting pitching. The position is incredibly deep and if you do your homework, you can find outstanding, quality pitching throughout the middle to late rounds. In a 12-team, mixed league with a snake draft, I’m not even looking at a pitcher until the sixth round. You can easily build yourself competitive pitching staffs without investing an early round pick on a Justin Verlander or a Clayton Kershaw. Sure, those guys will be great, but clearly there are others. If you watched that Colorado/ St. Louis series this past weekend, you’ll know exactly what I’m, talking about.

If you were here Saturday morning, then you saw the write-up I did on Shelby Miller and the phenomenal one-hit shutout he tossed against the Rockies on Friday. He gave up a hit to the first batter he faced and then proceeded to mow down the next 27 Rockies who came to bat. No walks, no errors, no hit batsmen; just that first hit shy of a perfect game. The outing pushed his record to 5-2 with a 1.58 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He also has 51 strikeouts over just 45.2 innings. Not bad for a guy who was taken after the 15^th round.

Saturday afternoon, Adam Wainwright, a fifth or sixth round draft pick in most leagues, continued the trend and had a no-hitter going until two outs in the seventh when he gave up a hit to rookie third baseman Nolan Arenado. That made for 50 straight Rockies batters without a hit between the two games. Wainwright finished the day with a complete-game, two-hit shutout and he currently sits on a 5-2 record with a 2.30 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and has 55 strikeouts over 58.7 innings.

But turnaround is fair play and during the Sunday game, we saw Rockies hurler Jorge De La Rosa, a pitcher taken, on average, somewhere around the 22^nd round, take a no-hitter of his own into the seventh inning. He finished the day having allowed two hits and three walks with no earned runs en route to the win and now hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts, a streak of 13 innings. For the season, he’s 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and has 28 strikeouts in 45.1 innings.

Now obviously these guys aren’t going to pitch this well each and every outing and perhaps you can find flaws with each one. Miller is young and with more scouting reports, perhaps hitters will figure him out a little better. De La Rosa’s strikeout rate is way down and his walks are up, so perhaps consistency will be an issue. As for Wainwright, well, his rebuilt arm looks solid but he’s had his fair share of blow-ups in his time. But you know what…? So have Verlander and Kersahw. Neither of them is perfect and while they may pitch with a bit more consistency over time, the cost to acquire them is a lot steeper. Not to mention how acquiring their services comes at the expense of your offense. I’d much rather have a second-round outfielder and a 15^th round pitcher I’ve scouted than the other way around.

Of course, talking draft strategy now doesn’t do much for you, but it’s just something that should be pointed out to you fairly regularly so that you don’t make the same mistake next year during your draft. When you’re sitting there next March and you’re wondering if you should take Verlander or the next best hitter on the board, remember this article and get your head straight.

Now let’s hit the highlights from Sunday…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

	IP	W	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Chris Sale, CHW	9.0	0	1	0	0	0	7	0.00	0.11

Of course the beast today is a pitcher….what’d you expect? Nothing like hammering a point home so that it gets through even the thickest of skulls. Chris Sale is another guy you’ll find around the sixth or seventh round in most drafts and a perfect candidate to lead your fantasy rotation should he be the first hurler you choose after loading up on offense early. Just like every other pitcher, he too has had his moments of yuck, but overall, how can you argue with a 4-2 record with a 2.88 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP and 49 strikeouts in 56.1 innings? You can’t.

Fantasy Highs

Jose Bautista, OF TOR	2-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB
Emilio Bonifacio, OF, TOR	3-4, 3 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, SB
Adrian Beltre, 3B TEX	4-5, 2 R, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI
Jorge De La Rosa, SP COL	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 7 K
Tim Lincecum, SP SF	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 7 K

It’s been kind of a tough road for Jose Bautista owners this season but nine home runs and 20 RBI certainly aren’t anything to sneeze at here. But 13 games between home runs is a little long for him, especially when he’s still hitting under .250 for the year. Hopefully this game kick starts him and he can finish the month strong.

A nice big game for Emilio Bonifacio, although when Toronto’s putting up 12 runs, usually everyone id doing something right. But I like the fact that Bonifacio has four steals over his last six games as that’s the whole point of drafting him. It should be interesting to see if he gets a little extra playing time now that Rajai Davis is on the DL, so I’d look to use him and increase my stolen base total this week.

Always good to see Adrian Beltre powering up, right? He’s now homered in two straight games and has hit safely in his last four going 8-for-18 (.444) with two home runs and six RBI over that span. The .260 average is a bit cumbersome, but he still ranks amongst the top 10 third basemen overall and is in the top five if you’re just looking for power totals.

And look at Tim Lincecum trying to squeeze in here during a pro-pitching edition of Rounding the Bases. Good for him. At least for today. But between the rough starts, the high walks and the overall decline we’ve seen over the last few seasons, haircut or no haircut, I’m still not buying. Maybe he’s good for one of these every so often, but when I’m putting together a mid to late round pitching staff, he’s just not on my list.

Fantasy Lows

Brandon Moss, 1B OAK	0-4, 4 K
Victor Martinez, C DET	0-5, 3 K
Placido Polanco, 3B MIA	0-4, 3K
Heath Bell, RP ARI	BS, 27.00 ERA, 6.00 WHIP
Jordan Lyles, SP HOU	L, 18.00 ERA, 3.50 WHIP, 1 K

Some not-too-surprising struggles here as Brandon Moss continues to have issues with consistency at the plate, Heath Bell is back to blowing saves, and Victor Martinez still trying to get back into the swing of things…literally. Placido Polanco isn’t even a plug and play type of guy anymore without the batting average and Jordan Lyles is….well….Jordan Lyles.

Key Injuries

Wei-Yin Chen, SP BAL – oblique (day to day)

Shane Victorino, OF BOS – ribs, back (day to day)

Luis Valbuena, 3B CHC – finger (day to day)

Conor Gillaspie, 3B CHW – illness (day to day)

Chris Perez, RP CLE – shoulder (day to day)

Michael Cudddyer, OF COL – neck (15-day DL)

Erick Aybar, SS LAA – hamstring (day to day)

Carlos Gomez, OF MIL – back, shoulder (day to day)

Aramis Ramirez, 3B MIL – shoulder (day to day)

Pedro Florimon, SS MIN – hamstring (day to day)

Aaron Hicks, OF MIN – elbow (day to day)

Russell Martin, C PIT – neck (day to day)

Santiago Casilla, RP SF – knee (day to day)

Desmond Jennings, OF TB – groin (day to day)

Rajai Davis, OF TOR -- oblique (15-day DL)

Brandon Morrow, SP TOR – neck, back (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: Shelby Miller's Near-Perfect Night

Sat, 11 May 2013 07:45:14 -0700

On a night when Roy Halladay apologized to Phillies fans for his lackluster performance and informed them that he would be out for the next three months due to shoulder surgery, Cardinals fans were treated to the joys of watching a young ace in the making build off of his already impressive start to his rookie season. The changing of the guard is always a bittersweet moment as the excitement of seeing a new up-and-comer is always tempered by witnessing the end of a legendary career. But it’s just the cycle of things in the world of baseball and, obviously nothing new, as there was a time when Halladay himself was a rookie and we were all watching Dwight Gooden wrap up his time spent in the major leagues. But while the nostalgia of a great career is always nice to pore over, we fantasy folk need to focus on the present and the future and that future is found in Shelby Miller.

Of course Miller is just one of several future aces that we have the privilege of not just watching, but owning as well. Hurlers such as Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, Matt Moore, Jose Fernandez and Tony Cingrani are among some of the most coveted names in the fantasy game right now. Everyone wants them and it’s going to be a constant battle for years to come to get them. But Friday night belonged to Miller as he put on a veritable clinic, en route to one of the most phenomenal performances just short of perfection.

When the Rockies stepped onto the field of play to face Miller, they had some idea of how good he was, but no idea how great he was about to be. They grabbed themselves a bit of false hope right from the start as leadoff hitter Eric Young, Jr. kicked things off with a single on the first pitch he saw. Little did the Rockies know that Young would be the last base-runner they would have for the duration of the game.

Over the next two hours and 35 minutes, the Rockies sent exactly 27 men to the plate only to see each and every one of them return to the dugout, most of them with a look of bewilderment on their faces. Miller really only uses two pitches – a 93 mph fastball and a 79 mph curve – and both were working like a charm. He induced seven ground ball outs, seven fly-outs and notched a whopping 13 strikeouts to complete the closest thing to a perfect game. No walks, no errors, not a single base-runner throughout the night. Miller was a force. Save for Young, no one could touch him all night long.

Equally impressive is where Miller’s overall numbers ended up after this performance. He’s gone to the mound seven times this season, posted five quality starts and now, after this outing, has an ERA of 1.58 with a 51:11 K:BB over 45.2 innings. These are numbers that every fantasy owner dreams about when they’re picking up a young pitcher in the later rounds as that’s what likely happened with him on draft day this year. Keeper league owners are drooling and those who don’t own him are already trying to find some sort of a package deal to acquire his services. Whether he can parlay this into a Halladay-esque career is not yet known, but the longest of journeys starts with a single step. And after this outing, Miller has actually now taken a few.

Now let’s look at the highlights from Friday…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

	IP	W	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Shelby Miller, STL	9.0	0	1	0	0	0	13	0.00	0.11

Um…duh! Who else did you think…?

Fantasy Highs

Lyle Overbay, 1B NYY	4-5, 2 R, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
Ichiro Suzuki, OF NYY	3-5, 3 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, SB
Ian Desmond, SS WAS	3-4, 3 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI
Jon Lester, SP BOS	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.11 WHIP, 5 K
Hisashi Iwakuma, SP SEA	W, 2.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 9 K

Of course, Jon Lester has to throw in his two cents and post a complete-game shutout of his own. He is also having himself a fantastic season on the bump and is looking like an ace in Boston. Had I known just how amazing an effect John Farrell would have on this pitching staff, I probably would have snagged Lester and teammate Clay Buchholz for cheap as well instead of having to listen to the Boston homer in my league squawking about how great his pitching staff is.

And of course, an honorable mention goes out to Hisashi Iwakuma who has been a champ since day one. Actually he’s been a force ever since the Mariners moved him into the rotation during the second half of the season last year. His nine strikeouts were a season-high for him and while that was a huge boost for fantasy owners, you don’t want to get used to it as he won’t normally whiff so many. He will however, keep your ratios at the minimum. Did you know that he’s only allowed three earned runs during his home starts in Safeco? Pfffft! Fences coming in don’t mean dinky-doo.

Man, this was as close to Old-Timers Day as the Yankees could possibly get without rolling out the hordes of retirees who still like to don the pinstripes every year. Lyle Overbay and Ichiro Suzuki are pretty darn long in the tooth yet each one still has a little fight in them. Of course, facing Wade Davis always has the potential to be the cure for what ails you.

And finally, a quick shout out to Ian Desmond who fell a triple short of the cycle on Friday night. I have to admit that I was a bit of a skeptic about him repeating last year’s totals, especially with the continued lingering trade talk, but he’s certainly done his part to eliminate doubt in my mind.

Fantasy Lows

Andres Torres, OF SF	0-4, 3 K
Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL	0-3, 3 K
Chase Headley, 3B SD	0-4, 3K
Tim Hudson, SP ATL	L, 14.73 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, 4 K
Corey Kluber, SP CLE	L, 15.43 ERA, 2.79 WHIP, 4 K

The usual here in the lowlight section. Andres Torres doesn’t really get to play enough to make much of a difference and I don’t think anyone would have been dumb enough to start Corey Kluber. The other three hurt a little for the night, but we all know they will bounce back soon enough.

Key Injuries

Michael Cuddyer, OF COL – neck (day to day)

Erick Aybar, SS LAA – hamstring (day to day)

Glen Perkins, RP MIN – side (day to day)

Eduardo Nunez, SS NYY – ribs (day to day)

Santiago Casilla, RP SF – knee (day to day)

Desmond Jennings, OF TB – groin (day to day)

Jose Molina, C TB – knee (day to day)

Rajai Davis, OF TOR – oblique (day to day)

Bryce Harper, OF WAS – toe (day to day)

Jayson Werth, OF WAS – hamstring (expected to land on 15-day DL)

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Rounding the Bases: Thursday Fantasy Baseball Round-Up

Fri, 10 May 2013 04:15:48 -0700

With the usual shorter slate of games on Thursday, we’re going to skip the usual format and go with one of those game by game, stream of consciousness-style round-ups again. As a matter of fact, I think we’re going to make this a regular thing for Monday and Thursday nights as it allows us to take a broader look at what’s going on throughout MLB with respect to the fantasy world. This should actually help with waiver wire selections, especially for those who are in leagues with daily roster moves and transactions. So without further ado, let’s take a look at what happened Thursday and what we can expect, fantasy-wise, moving forward.

We will actually start with Thursday’s Fantasy Beast of the Day because he’s actually someone who I have received quite a number of emails about lately. Everyone wants to know if he’s the real deal…..again……or if he is the consummate sell-high candidate.

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Mark Reynolds, 1B CLE

2-3, 2 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB

So what are we looking at here with Mark Reynolds right now? Are we buying? Are we selling? What do we do here? He’s batting .291 with 11 home runs and 29 RBI through his first 31 games (128 plate appearances) and looks like an absolute monster at the plate right now. It wasn’t that he was a total disaster last year because 23 home runs is far from disastrous, but it was a serious decline in power with the same lousy average and offensive rates in line with career averages. Now suddenly he’s back on top and even better than before as his strikeout rate has gone down and while his BABIP is higher than his career average, there’s nothing outlandish about it. So we should believe, right? Well, maybe not so fast. There are two things I’m looking at that actually make me think you should be selling high on him right now. First off, the .355 ISO is way too high a mark for him to keep up with. If you’ve been paying attention to Todd Zola’s articles about regression, then you’d be looking at his ISO numbers from past seasons and see that his average ISO is closer to .240 which means we’re going to see quite a number of at-bats with fewer extra-base hits in the future. If you couple that with the second thing I’m looking at – his swing rates – then you’ve got a clearer understanding of what the future may hold for him. Sure, the overall strikeout rate is down, but A. he’s still striking out at more than a 25-percent mark and B. his swinging strike rate is still at 14.3-percent which is not only higher than last year, but right in line with his career averages. His swing rate shows that he’s making a run at more pitches, particularly those outside the zone and he’s making substantially more contact on them right now. Between pitcher adjustments, a likely drop in BABIP, and an expected regression in contact outside the zone, Reynolds is going to have to swing less and be more selective at the plate, something he has never shown a tendency to do. Unless something completely changed his approach at the plate during the offseason, you can probably expect this recent hot run at the plate to start cooling of very soon. Sell, sell, sell!

Now let’s hit the rest…..

OK, so I’m officially testing the waters on Scott Kazmir next week as I just picked him up here in the Fantasy Alarm league. His first two starts of the season were less than stellar, but he’s thrown back-to-back quality starts now and, most importantly, has seen a gradual uptick in velocity with each start he’s made this season, topping out at 95 mph on Thursday. I’m a bit nervous that he’s allowing so many fly balls, but I’m taking the shot anyway…

That’s now 14 earned runs over 15.1 innings (three starts) for Bartolo Colon. Please tell me you weren’t banking on him pitching well all year long.

I can’t wait for the Yankees to leave Colorado this week as the combined 2-for-18 with just one run scored from Nolan Arenado and Wilin Rosario is killing me here. Although a trip to St. Louis to face Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller isn’t all that enticing either…

Your buy-low window on Adam LaRoche is rapidly closing. He’s now hit safely in six straight games and it’s just a matter of time, and not much at that, before he starts hitting for power again.

Seriously….Jeremy Guthrie? What more does he have to do to earn your trust. Sure the strikeout rate stinks and maybe he walks a few too many guys, but he’s allowed just one earned run over his last 21.1 innings and has made 18 consecutive starts without a loss, dating back to last August. Do I think his ERA stays at this tasty 2.28 mark? Probably not, but even a slight uptick in ERA, won’t kill his overall value.

Maybe it was here, maybe it was somewhere else that I write, but I told people that Mike Moustakas was a great buy-low candidate a couple of weeks ago. Well, he’s now homered in his last two games and he’s batting .318 here in the month of May.

Oswaldo Arcia and Daniel Nava continue to be two of my favorite waiver acquisitions this year and watching this Minnesota/Boston series has been an absolute joy for me. Arcia has now hit safely in seven straight games and is batting .444 (12-for-27) with a home run, four RBI and four runs scored in that span. Meanwhile, Nava is batting .295 with five home runs and 21 RBI through his first 29 games this season and has been a boost for owners that were wise enough to pick him up early. One caveat with Nava though is that he’s now started like this in his last two seasons in the bigs and has failed to sustain the production beyond this point exactly. So be careful with him. He could be a good sell-high throw-in right now.

Where are all the Melky Cabrera supporters now? Seems to me that they were out in force prior to the offseason, talking about how the move to hitter-friendly Toronto would be a boost for him. Well, their silence is deafening here in May as his strikeouts are up, his walks are down and he’s hitting for virtually no power whatsoever. I’ll refrain from gloating too much here since there’s plenty of baseball still to come, but there is nothing in his batted ball data that indicates he will improve. Suckers!!

While John Buck squeezed out a 1-for-4 on Thursday with a single in the second inning, it should be noted that your big, power hitting catcher needed that single to end a 0-for-14 run at the plate and now has one hit in his last 17 at-bats. It’s a run like this that should indicate to you that it’s time to let go. Sell him if you can find a buyer, but if you can’t, don’t be afraid to be bold and just drop him outright. He’ll get snatched up immediately and someone will ridicule you for the move, but do you really want to endure a month of May that sees him hit .205 with maybe three home runs if you’re lucky?

There’s likely to be some regression coming, but there’s plenty to love about what’s happening with Patrick Corbin right now. His numbers have been absolutely phenomenal thanks to an increase in velocity which has made both his sinker and his slider that much more effective. The improved quality of those two pitches has allowed him to maintain a K/9 right around 7.00 (6.99 to be exact) and he’s seen a solid increase in his ground ball rate which is hovering right around 48-percent. Should he maintain numbers even close to his current rates and peripherals, there’s no way he’s coming out of the rotation regardless of how Tyler Skaggs pitches or when Daniel Hudson is expected back.

And finally, what’s a better note to finish on – Ryan Vogelsong’s disgusting 19.6-percent HR/FB which is killing his owners or Brian McCann’s first big game since his return? Considering the light at the end of the Vogelsong tunnel is getting dimmer and dimmer with each dismal start, we’ll just send some kudos out to McCann who could have a rebound that keeps Evan Gattis on the bench even more now that Jason Heyward’s appendectomy recovery is ahead of schedule.

Feeling like a stat hound? Here’s a quick glance at Thursday’s winners and losers…

Thursday’s Best

Brian McCann, C ATL	3-5, R, HR, 3 RBI
Alex Gordon, OF KC	2-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
Oswaldo Arcia, OF MIN	2-4, 2 R, 3B, HR, 2 RBI
Scott Kazmir, SP CLE	W, 1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 10 K
Patrick Corbin, SP ARI	W, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 4 K

Thursday’s Worst

Derek Norris, C OAK	0-4, 3 K
Yoenis Cespedes, OF OAK	0-3, 3 K
Nolan Reimold, OF BAL	0-4, 3K
Bartolo Colon, SP OAK	L, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 4 K
Ryan Vogelsong, SP SF	L, 12.46 ERA, 2.31 WHIP, 7 K

Key Injuries

J.J. Putz, RP ARI – elbow (15-day DL – no surgery required)

Joel Hanrahan, RP BOS – forearm (transferred to 60-day DL – surgery possible; buh-bye)

Erick Aybar, SS LAA – hamstring (day to day)

Scott Downs, RP LAA – foot (day to day)

Carl Crawford, OF LAD – hamstring (day to day)

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B LAD – neck (day to day)

Rob Brantley, C MIA – finger (day to day)

Eduardo Nunez, SS NYY – ribs (day to day)

Jose Tabata, OF PIT – hamstring (day to day)

Santiago Casilla, RP SF – knee (day to day)

Jose Molina, C TB – knee (day to day)

Brandon Morrow, SP TOR – neck, back (day to day; insert your own Friday impression)

Jayson Werth, OF WAS – hamstring (day to day)

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Master Notes From Todd Zola

Thu, 09 May 2013 06:31:45 -0700

A couple weeks ago, we talked about regression and how it is a misused word in today’s fantasy baseball vernacular. Most use regress as a synonym for “play worse” whereas it really is the act of approaching or reverting to a mean. Today we will briefly review three pitching metrics that are candidates for regression and then we’ll look some pitchers in line to regress.

A pitcher’s baseline performance is a function of both is skill and luck. Some metrics such as strikeout rate and walk rate are mostly skill, though early in the season they can be influenced by the quality of opponent. Others involve a combination happenstance and skill. If you recall, in general a hitter develops his own baseline as his skill is the driving force. Pitchers, however, cluster around a league mean when it comes to three baselines: BABIP, HR/FB and LOB%.

Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP is the batting average on all at bats that do not involve a strikeout or home run. As discussed a couple weeks ago, Voros McCracken made the revolutionary discovery that a pitcher’s BABIP hovers near .300 regardless of their skill level. Follow-up research has revealed a pitcher has some measure of control over his BABIP, but the randomness of a round bat striking a round ball usually masks this skill, especially in small samples. A fly ball pitcher will sport a lower BABIP than a groundball pitcher. Intuitively, those that induce weaker contact should carry a BABIP lower than the league average but that research is still a work in progress. If a hurler’s BABIP is significantly lower than the league mean (presently around .297) he’s been lucky and can be expected to allow more hits. Similarly, if his BABIP is above the league average he’s been unlucky and probability dictates he’ll surrender fewer hits going forward. In both instances, the pitcher’s BABIP will likely regress towards the league mean. Unless his luck reverses, it will not actually attain it, which is why the definition is approach or revert to the mean.

Home runs per fly ball or HR/FB is perhaps surprisingly another metric not under a pitcher’s control. Keep in mind he can influence the number of fly balls (as compared to grounders) so he can impact his HR/9, but there is a luck aspect involved with home run rate. The league average is about 11 percent. If a pitcher is sporting a HR/FB below league average, he’s been lucky and his home run rate should rise going forward. On the other hand, an unlucky hurler has a HR/FB above league average and can expect an improved HR/9 in the future.

The final luck-entailed metric is LOB% which is often referred to as strand rate. Strand rate is actually a proprietary term coined by my colleague Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ, but it’s citing has become commonplace so it is really no longer proprietary. However, it should be noted that Shandler’s computation of strand rate is different than LOB%, though they are quite similar and have identical analytical utility. LOB% is the percentage of allowed base runners that cross the plate. Please note this is independent of the number of base runners. A pitcher can have a low LOB%, meaning more of his allowed runners score, but if he does not allow many runners, his ERA could still be reasonable. The league mean is about 71% though the elite starters can carry a mark closer to 78%. Skills such as a high strikeout rate and a low home run rate can help maintain a high LOB%. A strong bullpen also helps and since starting pitchers usually have the better relievers pick them up, they allow fewer inherited runners to score which is reflected in the starter’s LOB%. By this point you know the drill – a high LOB% is lucky and the pitcher will probably allow more runs in the ensuing tilts while a low LOB% is unlucky which should result in fewer runners scoring as the season progresses.

When I talk about regression, I make it a point to avoid saying things like “his BABIP will regress” or “his HR/FB is going to rise”. We don’t know what will happen. We only know what probability dictates should happen. When you flip a coin and it’s heads, probability says there is a 50/50 chance the next flip is also heads. It’s gambler’s fallacy to say it will be tails so the total will be one head and one tail. Each flip is independent of the results of the previous flips. In the same vein, the fate of each batted ball is independent of the previous ones, the fate of a fly ball is independent of the earlier ones and whether a runner scores is independent of how many previous runners crossed the dish. Luck does not have to even out. Proper analysis assumes neutral luck going forward, hence I try my best to use phrases like “his ERA should drop” or “anticipate fewer homers”.

The final point is often it is more than luck that causes one of these metrics to be low or high, especially in a small sample. What is perceived to be bad luck can also have an element of bad pitching just as some good luck could also involve some good pitching, especially in small samples. This is why proper analysis does not focus on a single metric, but rather a combination.

OK, let’s take a look at some pitchers that are candidates for regression. I’ll point out what I glean as good or bad luck and analyze that in concert with the root skills of strikeout and walk rate.

Many had David Price as the first pitcher off the board after the big three of Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg were drafted. Presently, Price’s ERA sits at an unsightly 6.25. But here’s the thing. Both his strikeout and walk rates are within range of his career averages. In terms of skills, Price is the same guy as last season. A .351 BABIP and 21 percent HR/FB are just croaking him. As implied, this can’t all be bad luck, there is likely some bad pitching as well, but these metrics are so far out of whack that some serious regression to their respective means is likely. Historically, Price’s BABIP is .280 which itself is a little better than league average. The law of averages suggests that .351 will approach the league mean. Going forward, Price’s BABIP should be .280-.300. Similarly, his career HR/FB is 9.7 percent, also a little better than average. You guessed it – his 21 percent is in line for a correction. The wrench in the Price analysis is his velocity is down a bit from last season. The disconnect is he is still fanning hitters at a solid rate, albeit a tick below normal. This introduced a little bit of uncertainty into the analysis as the drop in mph could be contributing some bad pitching to the bad luck, but this could also provide an opening to approach Price’s owner. Point out the drop but say you’re willing to incur the risk. Maybe you can pry Price from an overly concerned owner.

We may as well stay with the Cy Young theme and take a look at the thus far disappointing R.A. Dickey. From a skills perspective, his whiffs are down while his walks are up as compared to last season. Some of the drop is strikeouts is due to the league switch, but there is a drop beyond that what should be expected from having to face the DH in lieu of a pitcher two or three times a game. Coming into the season much was made of Dickey moving indoors, though most studies revealed the knuckler is just as effective, if not more so with a roof overhead. Truth be told, it very well could be last season was the outlier in terms of strikeouts as Dickey’s K/9 was significantly better than his career mark. His walks however, spiked to a mark above his career BB/9 which suggests to this point, Dickey has been unable to find the touch on his knuckler. It is this wildness that is at least in part responsible for an elevated home run rate. Dickey is inducing fewer grounders which imply he’s leaving the floater up in the zone. Furthermore, his HR/FB is well above league average so his HR/9 is taking a double whammy – more fly balls and a greater percentage leaving the yard. It’s this elevated home run rate that is the cause of a ballooned ERA. Having watched Tim Wakefield for his entire Red Sox career, I have had the expression, “If it’s low, let it go. If it’s high, let it fly” drummed into my head. Too many of Dickey’s offerings are high. I do anticipate he regains the feel and is a better pitcher going forward, but even coming into the season, I was leery he would be able to maintain the 8.9 K/9 from last season even after corrected due to the league change. The 400 pound gorilla in this room is last season, Dickey’s April ERA was 4.45 and we all know what happened after that. I’m not saying he will win the American League Cy Young, but better days should be around the corner. If I owned Dickey, I wouldn’t’ sell for 80 or 90 cents on the dollar, but I wouldn’t look to acquire him either. If you want to deal Dickey, the best means may be via a two for two. Maybe you pair a better hitter with Dickey and get back a better pitcher but lesser hitter. This way, you make the focal point of the deal the better hitter and pitcher and since Dickey is more of a balancing piece, he isn’t subject to that analytical discretion he would be in a one for one.

Now let’s look at a youngster at the other end of the spectrum – Matt Harvey. A major problem when evaluating Harvey is we don’t have a solid grasp on the skills aspect of his performance baseline. We don’t know how real his present 10.6 K/9 and we especially don’t know if he will maintain his surprisingly miniscule 2.2 BB/9. Many are pointing out Harvey has yet to face a team with an offense that is above average and want to see what happens when the quality of competition improves. I see their point but you don’t sport a 10.6 K/9 solely as a result of inferior lineups. The kid has mad skillz. While we aren’t sure where his skills will settle, it is quite likely his .189 BABIP and 4.7 percent HR/FB will correct. OK, here I will make an exception – they WILL correct. We just don’t know how much. Harvey has been both lucky and good. Hmm, sounds like a certain phenom outfielder that started to set the league ablaze this time last season. Harvey’s BABIP and HR/FB will regress and some will point towards the competition, but in reality it is gravity doing the trick. The ultimate question will be where he settles in terms of root skills; strikeouts and walks.

As a means of tying things together, if I was looking to sell high on Harvey, I would not deal him even up for Dickey and I doubt many, if any would. However, I would deal him for Price and would probably be in the minority.

Todd Zola has been with Mastersball since its inception in 1997, presently serving as Managing Partner in charge of the Platinum subscription content. Lord Zola, as he is affectionately known in the industry, also contributes to KFFL, the ESPN Insider and is a frequent guest on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports radio. He’s a veteran of Tout Wars and LABR and has won multiple National Fantasy Baseball Championship titles. Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddZola

Rounding the Bases: Bullpen Issues, Hot Starters & Heyward

Wed, 08 May 2013 11:10:29 -0700

Fernando Rodney is struggling this year. What a shock. I pegged this as a legitimate possibility this year when I barely had Rodney in my top-20 at the closer position in my preseason rankings. Is he going to lose his job working the 9th, and if he does who will take over for the Rays? Jed Lowrie has had a great start to the season, but his star is already fading. Should you be buying or dealing the middle infielder? Mark Reynolds continues to bash balls and now he might qualify at another position which will only enhance his fantasy value. Finally, maybe Jason Heyward isn't as big of a wuss as we thought. He'll start his rehab assignment this week and could return to action next week for the Braves. What's his outlook for the rest of the season?

RAYS BULLPEN IN FLUX?

Fernando Rodney is struggling. What a shock. Here is what I wrote about him in my preseason BaseballGuys' Draft Guide.

“Unless the law of the land was somehow changed the last 12 months and I was the only one on the planet who wasn't informed, I'm gonna suggest to you that the fall for Rodney could be substantial. The facts. (1) Rodney posted the lowest ERA in the history of baseball for a season of 70 innings at 0.60. Each year from 2007-2011 his ERA was at least 4.24. That means if you multiply his ERA last season by seven you would still end up with a six year low in ERA (4.20). (2) Rodney had a WHIP of 0.78. If you double that mark you would end up with 1.56, a mark that would still be lower than the 1.68 spot he threw up there in 2011. Last season was the first time in six years that the mark was below 1.32. (3) Rodney posted a BABIP of .220. That was the first time he had ever had a mark below .272 and it was .063 points below his career rate. (4) His 9.16 K/9 mark was two full batters over the mark he posted the previous three years (7.17 from 2009-11). (5) His 1.81 walk was not only a career best but if you multiply that number by four you end up with 7.24, a mark that would still be below the 7.88 mark he posted in 2011. Not once, a single time, had Rodney ever posted a BB/9 mark under 3.48... and this in a career that began more than a decade ago in 2002. Fernando Rodney was an average big pitcher for a decade. Last season be morphed into Mariano Rivera. Good luck on him pulling off that trick again unless he sold his soul to the devil – literally.”

So what has he offered thus far? In 10.2 innings Rodney has a 5.06 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Before you go saying 'that's ridiculously awful and has to improve' you should note that he had a 4.50 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 2011. Also, after reading the above summary, isn't it pretty obvious that what he did last season simply isn't ever going to happen again? Is it also clear that Rodney, honestly, isn't very good? I mean the guy debuted in 2002 and he's had one elite season. One. There's still time for him to rebound and have a solid season, but let's be honest here – shall we. Rodney has struck out more than a batter per inning which is great. However, the walks have done him in. His 7.59 mark is massive, but again, he had a 7.88 mark in 2011 and owns a 4.49 mark for his career. He never consistently throws strikes if you remove last season from his record. On the plus side his 1.69 HR/9 mark is massive. He rarely allows the big fly with a career mark of 0.70. In fact his marks from 2009-12, if added together, would equal 2.00, just barely ahead of his mark to this point. All told, the guys is 4-for-6 in converting save chances, and he's only thrown 10.2 innings. After last season's success you'd have to think he has some leash to work with. What do the Rays do if they make a change though? I see two main options.

Jake McGee is left-handed, and that likely tilt him to remaining in the role of setup man. He's whiffed a tantalizing 18 batters in 12 innings and he's the owner of an 11.12 K/9 mark for his career. He simply overpowers hitters. At the same time he's walked eight guys this season after issuing a total of 11 free passes all of last season so his location has been off more than not. He's also permitted four homers in 12 innings after allowing three in 55.1 innings in 2012.

Joel Peralta is right-handed, and I would think he would be the fallback option if a change was made in the 9th inning (get out of here with that Kyle Farnsworth talk). Over his 164 appearances with the Rays he's posted a 3.20 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.79 K/9 an a 3.95 K/BB ratio. That is elite pitching folks. Elite. The numbers are even better since the start of last season: 11.18 K/9 and 4.39 K/BB. He only has 10 career saves in a career that began in 2005, and he's prone to the big fly given his huge fly ball ratio (over 51 percent of batted balls each of the past three years), but when he's locked in, dare I say it, he's a superior hurler to Rodney. I feel much better getting that off my chest.

JASON HEYWARD UPDATE

After stating that he could miss all of May healing up from his appendectomy, there is hope in Bravesland that Jason Heyward could be back in the Braves lineup by next week. Heyward will start a minor league rehab assignment Thursday in Triple-A. What he will bring when he returns to action is a fair question to ask.

In 2010 Heyward had an impressive rookie campaign with 18 homers, 72 RBIs, 83 runs scored an a .277 average as he looked fantastic.

In 2011 he flopped bigger than Scary Movie V has (are they really still making those horrible movies? Guess so). Heyward hit .227 with 14 homers, 42 RBIs and 50 runs scored in 128 games.

In 2012 Heyward reasserted himself as a fantasy star going 20/20 while hitting .269 with 82 RBIs and 93 runs scored.

Thus far in 2013, and it's only been 17 games, Heyward has channeled his '11 self hitting .121 with two homers, five RBIs, one steal an a .519 OPS in 58 at-bats. That means since the start of the 2011 season we have 587 at-bats of fantasy greatness in 2012 and 454 at-bats of putrid work in '11 and '13. Which guy will emerge from surgery? At this point it's anyone's guess. I'll say this. If you can buy Heyward at a discount his talent alone dictates you should. At the same time, if you have to pay full price to pick him up I just don't see how that is the prudent move at the moment.

JED LOWRIE UPDATE

The Athletics' Jed Lowrie has been a borderline star in the early going as an up the middle option who is hitting .303 with 15 RBIs and 19 runs scored in 32 games. But let me play Debbie Downer as I like to do.

(1) Lowrie has seen his average fall .062 points in the last nine games. He's seen his OBP fall .046 points in the last nine games. He's seen his SLG fall .109 points in his last nine games. Despite that slump bringing down all his numbers he's still vastly outpaced his career rates this season. Take a look.

2013: .303/.397/.467
career: .255/.333/.422

What that should clearly tell you is that there is more regression coming. At least that's what I see.

(2) Beyond the obvious, that he's currently slumping and likely to continue to see a regression moving forward, there's still that giant pink elephant in the room. The guy started his career in 2008. In his previous five seasons he has never, not once, appeared in 100 games. One hundred folks. That has to make you a bit nervous, doesn't it?

Trade Lowrie now if someone thinks this will be his breakout campaign and is willing to pay for it. Luckily you didn't have to invest heavily in him in any mixed leagues this season, so if you want to ride his bat until the inevitable injury strikes you'll likely be fine. Just have a backup plan.

MARK REYNOLDS UPDATE

The Indians' Mark Reynolds has been a wonderful play this far, simply tremendous actually. His current pace, over a 140 game season, would lead to 48 homers, 130 RBIs an a .291 average. Obviously he won't reach any of those numbers. But, in his defense, I'm still shocked that so many are surprised that he has been effective as it's like everyone just focused on his horrific batting average the past three years – and horrific may not be a strong enough term given the .198, .221 and .221 marks he's posted the past three seasons. There's clearly no chance he maintains his current .291. I mean the last time he hit .225 was back in 2009. The reason his average is so high this season isn't his BABIP which is .299, actually six points below his career mark, it's that he's hitting so many homers to buoy his average. The bottom line is that his average will come down, likely catastrophically at some point, though it is nice to see his current K-rate at 24.2 percent which is light years better than his 32.3 percent career mark. If he can hold on to that gain, a huge IF given his career track record, perhaps it's possible that he will be able to produce a big league average batting average. Don't count on it, but keep your fingers crossed. Back to the point I was trying to make...

Reynolds no longer steals bases – after swiping 24 in 2009 he's stolen a total of 15 bases the past three plus years – and we just went over how his average will likely tank, but there is goodness to be mined here. The guy is an elite category stuffer in the counting categories at third base. Since the start of the 2008 season here is how Reynolds ranks amongst all third baseman:

Reynolds is first in homers with 141.
Reynolds is 7th in RBIs with 370.
Reynolds is 7th in runs scored with 348.
Reynolds is 9th with a .810 OPS.

That's not bad at all, is it?

But you say, 'Ray that doesn't matter cause Reynolds doesn't qualify at third base anymore.' Is that true? Reynolds only appeared in 15 games at third base last season so if your league has a 20 game minimum he didn't qualify at third to start the season. However, he started his 5th game at third base for the Tribe this week and many leagues do have an in-season rule of five games to qualify at a new position. Check your league rules cause Reynolds may have just become way more valuable.

Rounding the Bases: With Little Surprise, Tazawa Gets Nod in Boston

Wed, 08 May 2013 09:05:20 -0700

Given the way the Red Sox pitching staff has opened the season, it’s hard to argue against any decision John Farrell makes. So when he opted to go with Junichi Tazawa for his new closer instead of the well-proven Koji Uehara, there was little backlash from the fantasy community. Sure, there were some grumblings from the eager-beaver waiver hounds who remain glued to their league’s waiver wire and snatched up Uehara moments after Joel Hanrahan was hurt, but most of them were still fairly quick on the draw the following morning when it was announced that the choice made was actually Tazawa.

But in truth, what this tells me is something I already know and have preached to many over the last few years – sometimes the best reliever is not the guy a manager wants closing out games in the ninth inning. To many, it is more important to have the best reliever available in the late seventh/early eighth so that they can clean up and potential messes and bridge the gap to the eventual closer in the ninth. We saw it back when Mariano Rivera was setting up for John Wetteland in the mid-90’s, and for the years between 2007 and 2009, we saw that with Carlos Marmol and the Cubs. Many expected him to be named the team’s closer only to see him continue his dominance in the eighth as manager Lou Pinella knew that he had a gifted commodity with a rubber arm able to get ready at a moment’s notice. It was more important to him to have Marmol stymie any late rallies in the seventh and eighth than it was for him to start him fresh in the ninth.

We also saw some of that in Detroit earlier this year as manager Jim Leyland said that he much preferred the reliability and talents of Joaquin Benoit in the eighth than he did in the ninth. Because the rest of his bullpen was so dicey, he was ultimately forced into moving Benoit into the closer’s role, but it was so far from his first choice that they went back to Jose Valverde. Benoit’s ability to get his arm ready quickly and his ability to dominate hitters had a much greater purpose in the middle innings.

So pay attention, owners of Kenley Jansen. His eventual emergence as the Dodgers’ closer isn’t such a foregone conclusion after all. Brandon League hasn’t exactly been all peaches and cream this season, but it really doesn’t look like Don Mattingly is pulling the plug on him anytime soon. Same thing for you Ernesto Frieri owners who don’t believe in Ryan Madson. Frieri has had some struggles as the closer but not enough to remove him from the role. But when Madson comes back and Mike Scioscia has someone to chuck into the ninth with the hopes that Frieri becomes the dominant eighth inning guy he once was, that move just might be made quicker than you’d like.

Other situations you might pay attention to: Cubs when Kyuji Fujikawa returns; Heath Bell vs David Hernandez in Arizona should J.J. Putz land on the DL; Wilton Lopez vs Rex Brothers in Colorado should Rafael Betancourt get traded.

Now let’s do a quick check in on some of the highlights from Tuesday as games are starting real early here on Wednesday morning…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

	IP	W	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Matt Harvey, NYM	9.0	0	1	0	0	0	12	0.00	0.11

Is there really much more we need to say about Matt Harvey these days? Awesome numbers across the board and his peripherals are all looking nice and tasty. Do we run a bit of a risk seeing him throw his slider more than 20-percent of the time? Possibly, but we haven’t seen any red flags just yet, so let’s try and think positive here.

Fantasy Highs

Jose Altuve, 2B HOU	2-3, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB
Shin-Soo Choo, OF CIN	2-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Chase Utley, 2B PHI	3-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
Scott Diamond, SP MIN	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 2 K
Zach McAllister, SP CLE	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 4 K

Nice to see Shin-Soo Choo continue his hot-hitting ways and it’s good to see Jose Altuve kick in the rare power display, but the real story so far has been Chase Utley. He was a huge injury risk coming into the season (probably still is to a certain extent) and many shied away from him because of that; yours truly included. Now he’s batting .276 with a team-leading seven home runs, 23 RBI and he’s also kicked in four stolen bases. The other shoe may still drop at some point, but for now he’s looking pretty damn tasty.

Both Scott Diamond and Zach McAllister are looking pretty good right now, but I’ll take less strikeouts and the current/projected ratios and peripherals from Diamond over McAllsiter in the long run. McAllister’s numbers, from his FIP and SIERA to his current BABIP tell me that he’s going to start giving up some runs pretty soon.

Fantasy Lows

Alejandro De Aza, OF CHW	0-4, 3 K
J.P. Arencibia, C TOR	0-4, 3 K
Brandon Moss, 1B OAK	0-4, 3K
J.A. Happ, SP TOR	ND, 27.00 ERA, 4.50 WHIP
Craig Kimbrel, RP ATL	L, BS, 27.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 1 K

The rarity that we see Craig Kimbrel here is only matched by the regularity of J.P. Arencibia. I love a power hitting backstop, but his strikeouts and weak average can be a killer sometimes, even from a catcher with fewer Abs than a regular position player.

Sorry to have to put J.A. Happ ion this section after taking a liner off the noggin, but his pitching line isn’t going away because of it. Your team is still collecting those earned runs no matter how bad you feel for the guy. Incidentally, he is fine and the CT scan did not reveal any damage to the skull. He’ll probably hit the DL though just to be on the safe side.

Key Injuries

J.J. Putz, RP ARI – hand (day to day)

Miguel Gonzalez, SP BAL – thumb (out for May 9 start)

Joel Hanrahan, RP BOS – forearm (15-day DL)

Will Middlebrooks, 3B BOS – side (day to day)

David Ross, C BOS – quadriceps (day to day)

Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL – groin (day to day)

Rob Brantly, C MIA – finger (day to day)

Donovan Solano, 2B MIA – side (15-day DL)

Eduardo Nunez, SS NYY – ribs (day to day)

Josh Reddick, OF OAK – wrist (day to day)

Jarrod Parker, SP OAK – neck (day to day)

Roy Halladay, SP PHI – shoulder (15-day DL)

Russell Martin, C PIT – neck (day to day)

Jose Tabata, OF PIT – hamstring (day to day)

Carlos Quentin, OF SD – knee (day to day)

A.J. Pierzynski, C TEX – oblique (day to day)

J.A. Happ, SP TOR – head (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: Hamilton Struggles, Others Surge

Mon, 06 May 2013 10:22:45 -0700

I've been sick, so there is precious little brain power I currently have at the moment for any grand unifying theory. The upshot of that is the fact that there really is no theme with today's piece. I just looked at the news of the day and pulled out a bunch of bits that caught my eye. A $125 million player stinks. A set of rookies are off to strong starts. Will one or both be able to sustain that? An all-star catcher returns to the fold down south. A handful of outfielders, with varying pedigrees and levels of success, will also be discussed. I told you there was no plan this week.

Alex Gordon has gone deep just three times and has just one steal this season, not what anyone wanted to see. However, let's give the guy credit for what he has done well. He's hitting .303. He's drive in 20 runs. He's scored 19 times. All of that is impressive given that he's appeared in just 27 games this season. Gordon might be one of those guys that people expect more from than they should. Will he ever be a 25 homer bat? He may not be. He might end up being a 15 homer, 45 double bat year after year. Who cares if he's hitting .300 as he has since the start of the 2011 season I say. The only thing I'm concerned with right now with Gordon is that he's walked only five times in 27 games. That's a terrible mark and it's the main reason that after years of a .376 and .368 OBP that his current mark is languishing a bit at .331. Figure on the walks picking up as we move forward.

Didi Gregorius continues to hit, and people continue to be hoodwinked into thinking that he's going to be a dominating offensive force this season. Didi is batting .433 with three homers and six runs scored through eight games. My advice – trade him now. Didi hit .243 last year in 48 games at Triple-A. He hit .278 at Double-A last year in 81 games. In those 129 games last season he had seven homers and stole three bases. Wow, how exciting. He's also had more than 2,000 at-bats during his minor league career and his slash line is a rather pathetic .267/.319/.375. Dude just isn't a good hitter. Toss in 23 homers and 45 steals in those 486 games and you have yourself one boring offensive weapon that is simply locked in at the moment, nothing more.

Jedd Gyorko has six hits in his last three games as he's finally starting to look comfortable at the big league level. Still, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves with the uber-prospect. In 32 at-bats against left handed pitching he has one RBI. He's hitting a mere .203 on the road though he sure seems comfortable at home where he is batting .340. He's also struck out 25 times in 30 games while walking only 10 times (he was billed as a player who would control the strike zone better than that). He's also gone deep only twice in 112 at-bats, though he has slapped nine doubles. All in all it's been a solid start to his big league career, even if that doesn't mean the majority of people that own Jedd are happy with the early returns. The game just isn't that easy folks.

Josh Hamilton is a mess right now. He's hitting .208. He has a .255 OBP. His SLG is even more emberassing at .296. His walk rate of 5.1 percent is substantially below his 8.2 percent career mark. His 27.7 percent K-rate is a career worst (career 20.0). His BABIP is .273. A career worst (He's never had a mark below .315). His HR/F ratio is 5.6 percent. Shocker. A career low. It's less than a third of his normal 18.8 percent. His 80.8 percent mark at swings on pitches inside the strike zone is a three year low. His 59.9 percent overall swing rate would also be a career worst. His 53.3 percent mark on making contact on pitches that are outside of the strike zone – another career worst. Pitchers know he is a total mess. Check out his first pitch strike rate of 70.8 percent, a career-high (his career rate is under 61 percent). Pitchers just don't have to be afraid of him right now so they are trying to get ahead 0-1.

Brian McCann is active as he returns from the DL Monday. The Braves' catcher has missed the first five weeks of the season with a shoulder issue but he's finally ready to rock. The Braves have gotten excellent offensive production from Evan Gattis, the dude has bashed eight homers with 18 RBIs over 25 games, but it's now McCann's time to shine. I've been saying this for weeks now. The Braves will find a spot for Gattis in the lineup as much as possible, but the guy is about to become nothing more than an NL-only option. The Braves has Freddie Freeman at first, Upton-Upton-Heyward in the OF (when healthy), and McCann at catcher. Where does Gattis play, especially since McCann is a vastly superior defensive option behind the plate? Brian M. is also a wee bit of a hitter in his own right as he's hit 20 homers in each of the past five seasons and has at least 18 big flies each of the past seven years.

David Murphy has long been one of, if not the, best 4th outfielders in baseball. This year, he's getting a chance to play on a more consistent basis. Of course he has failed miserably (isn't that always the way?). The owner of a solid .281 batting average in his career, Murphy has seen his average drop down to .177. He's also gone from a career best OBP (.380) in a season of 400 at-bats to a .233 mark this season. What's been the problem? Bad luck? Such a lame excuse I know, but let's look at it. His 16.5 percent K-rate is just above his 16.1 percent career mark. His 22.8 percent line drive rate would be a six year high. Given those two facts it's pretty odd that his BABIP is .195. That's more than .100 points below his career mark. It's even more odd to find that .195 mark given that the past six years that his BABIP has been at least .295 every one of those years. Remember, he's sporting a career best line drive rate and that's still happening. Oddness reigns. Bottom line for me is that I would be adding Murphy on the cheap in any league that his current owner is ready to bail.

Hunter Pence hit a mere .253 last season, a terrible mark for a guy who owns a career rate of .285, and it somehow caused nearly everyone to overlook the fact that Pence hit 24 homers and drove in a career best 104 runs. This season he's on pace for, you guessed it (in case you didn't know he is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball), to hit 25 homers, knock in about 100 runs and bat .280. He's not elite, but he's very, very good, and extremely consistent which should hold more weight than it does with most. Pence has also swiped five bases thus far, matching his mark from all of last season. The last time he stole double-digit bags was 2010, but he did swipe 18 bags that season. If he returns to that level of success on the base paths his fantasy value will skyrocket this season.

Ryan Sweeney, he of the great baseball body and beautiful swing, is on the cusp of returning to the big leagues. The Cubs have decided to call him up for depth purposes after he hit .337 with a whipping six bombs in 23 games. I say 'whopping' because Sweeney has hit a total of 14 homers in 1,719 big league at bats. Despite an athletic 6'4”, 225 lbs build, and that smooth stroke, he's simply never learned how to lift the ball causing all those that thought he would one day be a 20 homer bat to have to admit failure. He's only worth taking a look at in NL-only leagues.

Dayan Viciedo will begin a rehab assignment Monday as he works his way back from an oblique issue. If everything goes well, he should be active by this weekend. Viciedo is off to a slow start this year hitting .229 with a .646 OPS through 48 at-bats. Shockingly, or perhaps it shouldn't be any longer, Viciedo still isn't doing anything to help himself out offensively other than swinging the bat. He has appeared in 13 games has doesn't have a single walk this season. Not one. You just can't be successful if you never take a walk.

Rounding the Bases: Is This the End for Doc Halladay?

Mon, 06 May 2013 06:42:33 -0700

As bad as some of the pitching performances have been this past week, and believe me, there have been some bad ones, none have stood out as much as Roy Halladay’s pair of debacles against the Cleveland Indians and Miami Marlins. The 2013 road had been a rocky one for Doc, but after three consecutive quality starts that saw him post a 1.71 ERA with a 16:5 K:BB over 21 innings, it looked as if things were getting back to normal. With a two-start week coming to wrap up the month of April and open May and match-ups against what appeared to be soft opponents, fantasy owners thought they were getting ready to cruise into the second month of the season. What they got was a whole lot of disgustingness shoved right up their fantasy team’s WHIP-hole.

The outings themselves don’t even need to be detailed. All you need to know are the straight facts: Two starts, six innings pitched, 13 hits, 17 earned runs, six walks and just seven strikeouts. For the week, he boasted a 25.50 ERA with a 3.17 WHIP which turned his 2013 season numbers into an 8.65 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Those are numbers you wouldn’t tolerate from any pitcher, starter or reliever, let alone from Roy freaking Halladay. Fantasy nightmare just barely covers it.

So now the question on virtually everyone’s mind is what to do with him. Owners of Halladay want to know if they should just drop him altogether and non-owners are wondering if this is the perfect buy-low opportunity. Are we witnessing the end of one of the modern era’s best starting pitchers or is this but a hiccup in what could still prove to be a solid season?

While excuses do absolutely nothing for the situation, it should be noted that Halladay did say that he had been bothered by some shoulder discomfort this week. We saw him stumble out of the gate last season due to shoulder problems and after a lengthy stay on the disabled list, came back in what could best be described as mediocre fashion. He had a few moments of strong performance, but overall, he was nowhere near the pitcher we once saw. Would this year be any different? Should he land on the disabled list this week, do we expect a rebound when he returns or do we expect a repeat performance?

Personally, I think he’s done like dinner. But as a fantasy owner who took a shot on him in the middle rounds of your draft, your best course of action would be to hold onto him through this expected DL-stint and see what happens during his rehab. If you cut him now, you get nothing but a kick to the fantasy groin in return. If you hold him, then you are at least giving yourself the opportunity to get something of value back for your investment. Maybe he comes back and pitches well. Maybe there’s some deluded Phillies fan in your league who deems this as a great buy-low opportunity. If either case holds true then at least you’re getting something. And should he return to pitch the exact same way, well, he’s on your bench, so the potential beating he could take won’t hurt anything more than your feelings.

It’s a lousy situation to be in, for sure, but that’s the risk you took when you drafted him. It’s not like he was winning 20 games and striking out 200-plus last year. You knew what you were getting yourself into. Now you just have to roll with the punches and see if there’s any way to salvage the wreck that he has become.

Now let’s finish it up with some highlights from Sunday…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Justin Ruggiano, OF MIA

2-3, 4 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB

Justin Ruggiano presents himself as a very interesting case this year. He was a total darling for owners last year as he came from virtually nowhere to post a fantastic half-season for those who found him on the waiver wire. A late-bloomer, Ruggiano came two home runs and one stolen base short of a 15-15 season in just 320 plate appearances and did it all with a .313 average. But the batted ball data, especially the .400 BABIP indicated that he was playing over his head, so those that drafted him this year should have been aware of the risks. He struggled early on and almost lost his job to Chris Coghlan, but he managed to do just enough to hold on. Now, he’s starting to break out a little with three home runs and a stolen base in his last four games. Whether or not he can build off this recent stretch, though, remains to be seen. Be cautiously optimistic with him because he just might not be the player you thought/hoped he’d be. After all, this beast-like performance did come against Roy Halladay.

Fantasy Plus

Andy Dirks, OF DET	4-4, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
Adeiny Hechavarrria, 3B MIA	2-4, R, 3B, HR, 7 RBI, BB
Mark DeRosa, OF TOR	3-5, 3 R, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI
Justin Verlander, SP DET	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 9 K
Kevin Slowey, SP MIA	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 7 K

Overall, it’s nice to see some unfamiliar faces in the section for a change. Sure, there’s boring ol’ Justin Verlander, but the rest of this lot is just a stitch of potential shy of getting the sun shining/dog’s ass metaphor here. I can’t say that I am particularly fond of Mark DeRosa as a fantasy player because of the lack of playing time, but the rest have some promise.

Andy Dirks gets a little more playing time than he does bench time and has the ability to be a mildly decent source of both power and speed. Nothing that you’re freaking out about, but just enough that if you were playing in an AL-only format or in a crazy-deep mixed league, he’s have a splash of value. The fact that he’s in the Detroit lineup and not in, say, Houston, definitely helps keep some value intact.

As far as middle infielders go, Adeiny Hechavarria could be a passable option. He won’t dazzle you with power or provide you with tremendous speed, but he should usually hit for a high average which could prove positive for you if you’re light up the middle.

And then there’s Kevin Slowey. Most hardcore Twins fans will say that the Marlins outright stole him, but Slowey has had his difficulties remaining both healthy and consistent as well. The move to the NL and to a pitchers’ haven like Marlins Park would suit just about any AL pitcher, and Slowey has grown comfortable in his new digs. His peripherals look great and there’s little indication that he’s pitching so far over his head that he’s going to come crashing down to Earth. Ride the wave while you can and see where it goes, but be ready to remove him should he start to falter.

Fantasy Minus

A.J. Pierzynski, C TEX	0-4, 4 K
Jason Castro, C HOU	0-3, BB, 3 K
David Freese, 3B STL	0-5, 3 K
Roy Halladay, SP PHI	L, 34.71 ERA, 3.43 WHIP, 4 K
Marco Estrada, SP MIL	L, 21.60 ERA, 3.30 WHIP, 5 K

As for the hitters, what can you do? Even the best of them falter, so to see three mediocre guys like these stumble, it’s really nothing new. The pitchers, on the other hand are a different story. We’ve already covered Doc, so there’s no need to beat a dead horse here, but what’s up with Marco Estrada? He didn’t even pretend to have a good outing here at any point and he is definitely struggling to live up to the sleeper status many of us had pegged on him. What is reassuring is that his walk and strikeout rates are fine and his SIERA is still in a good place. Now all we need is for his HR/FB to come back to normal and for his troubling .324 BABIP to regress to the mean.

Key Injuries

Juan Francisco, 3B ATL – ankle (day to day)

Andrew Bailey, RP BOS – biceps (day to day)

Jake Peavy, SP CHW – back (out for May 6)

Brandon Phillips, 2B CIN – undisclosed (day to day)

Mark Ellis, 2B LAD – leg (day to day)

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B LAD – neck (day to day)

Rob Brantly, C MIA – finger (day to day)

Donovan Solano, 2B MIA – leg (day to day)

Eduardo Nunez, SS NYY – ribs (day to day)

David Robertson, RP NYY – hamstring (day to day)

Roy Halladay, SP PHI – shoulder (expected to land on 15-day DL)

Angel Pagan, OF SF – hamstring (day to day)

Yunel Escobar, SS TB – wrist (day to day)

David Murphy, OF TEX – illness (day to day)

Ricky Romero, SP TOR – forearm (day to day)

Jayson Werth, OF WAS – hamstring (day to day)

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Rounding the Bases: The Forgotten

Sun, 05 May 2013 07:45:38 -0700

For two straight years, Dee Gordon, son of former All Star reliever Tom Gordon, was listed among Baseball America’s top 50 prospects thanks to a slick glove in the field and blinding speed on the base paths. He got his first taste of the big leagues back in 2011 and over a 56 game span that saw him come to the plate 233 times, Gordon hit .304 with 34 runs scored and 24 stolen bases. But in 2012, when he was given the starting shortstop gig to open the season, Gordon struggled mightily at the plate. Yes, he swiped 32 bases over 87 games, but he also hit just .228 and had a woeful .280 on-base percentage. He was shipped back down to Triple-A and his overall fantasy value took a hit. And when the Dodgers traded for Hanley Ramirez and announced that he would play shortstop in 2013, Gordon became even more of a forgotten man as there was, obviously, no room for him on the big league roster. Well guess what? He’s baaaaaaaaack!

When Hanley went down the first time, despite playing well in the minors, Gordon was left at Trriple-A in favor of a Justin Sellers/Luis Cruz tandem on the left side of the infield. Sellers was moderately passable with decent range in the field, but with a .191/.267/.250 slash line, his ineptitude with the bat was becoming more and more frustrating. Cruz, in the meantime, was filling in for the injured Juan Uribe and doing it with a .095 average with almost nothing to show for in the counting stats. The only way the Dodgers could have fielded a less productive pair of infielders was if they asked me to play both positions at the same time. Meanwhile, Gordon was posting a .314/.397/.431 slash line at Triple-A Albuquerque with 10 extra-base hits and 14 stolen bases over 102 at-bats. The time for change was necessary.

So here we are now with Gordon finally receiving the call-up and going 2-for-4 with two runs scored, two RBI and two stolen bases in his debut. What so you do now? Do you blow your FAAB budget to acquire him? Are you sold on his ability to play with the big boys here and excel? Can he be a trusted member of your starting fantasy roster?

Personally, I say yes to all of the above. Well, within reason. Considering we just entered the month of May, I’m not going to spend the rest of my budget on him as the season is long and, as we’ve seen, injuries are prevalent. But given the level of talent and the fact that stolen bases are, on the whole, down this year, adding a potential burner like Gordon could be a huge difference-maker in your league. I don’t think he’s going to rake at a .300-plus level this season, but I do have enough confidence in him to hit for a decent average, get on-base at a strong rate and swipe a ton….and yes, I mean a ton….of bases.

The fact that he “failed” last season is something you’ll be able to use to your advantage, For whatever reason, it’s his struggles last year that everyone seems to remember and not the fact that he was one of the top prospects in the game for the years before. If you couple that with the casual fan’s misconception that he can get stolen bases from virtually anywhere, you at least won’t find yourself in a huge bidding war. You’ll have to compete with a few of the smarter, more savvy owners in your league, but the moron who is likely to throw 90-percent of his remaining budget on the flavor of the week/month, is looking for someone else who hasn’t failed in the majors already.

And for those concerned with Gordon heading back to the minors after Hanley’s hamstring heals? Fear not. While Gordon is establishing himself as a big league shortstop and feared adversary on the bases, Uribe will have put his .230 average on full display at third and the Dodgers will wisely decide to move Hanley back to the hot corner. So now, you not only have a solid shortstop and stolen base threat for this month, but you’ve got it for the remainder of the season with the added bonus of said commodity sitting atop the Dodgers’ lineup with the likes of Hanley, Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez doing their part to knock him in on a regular basis. Win, win.

Now let’s look at some of the top performances from Saturday….

Fantasy Beast of the Day

Miguel Cabrera, 3B DET

4-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, BB

Maybe he’s not forgotten, but could today’s selection be any more boring? Ho-hum. Mr. Triple Crown winner. Mr. MVP. Blah blah blah. Perhaps I’m just a wee bit bitter that out of 11 leagues this year, I don’t own Miguel Cabrera in a single one. I never saw a pick higher than third in any snake draft and I just wasn’t committed enough to blow such a high percentage of my auction dollars on one player. Maybe next time I should. Cabrera isn’t just a beast on this day; he’s a beast every day. And the fact that he’s used at third base, a veritable wasteland of injuries this year, makes him all the more valuable. Should you own him, enjoy. I’m sure you love the tons of lousy offers you get for him on a near-daily basis. Unless you’re so blown away by an offer AND it would lock you into a top finish for the season, there’s simply no reason that would justify trading him.

Fantasy Winners

Alfonso Soriano, OF CHC	2-3, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB
Michael Saunders, OF SEA	3-5, 2 R, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI
Jason Kipnis, 2B CLE	3-4, 2 R, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, SB
Jeremy Guthrie, SP KC	W, CG, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 3 K
Jose Fernandez, SP MIA	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.29 WHIP, 9 K

While Gordon seems to be a forgotten man on a newbie prospect level, Alfonso Soriano tends to be a forgotten man in general these days. No, he’s not hitting 35-plus homers and swiping 30-plus bags these days, but he’s still good for 25-30 homers on average with a small handful of steals. He’s not top outfield quality anymore and because of that, people tend to overlook him. Those who don’t, know that they’re getting solid power numbers for very little cost. If you don’t own him, try trading for him. You’d probably be surprised as to how little it will cost you to get him.

Remember Michael Saunders? A near 20-20 season last year put him atop a ton of sleeper lists heading into this year, but a sprained shoulder landed him on the disabled list and suddenly he was off the radar and actually on numerous waiver wires. Now in the lineup again, Saunders is ready to make some noise, so you may want to pay attention to him again. Once a guy has a two-homer game, it’s tough to negotiate a trade, but you never know what it will cost until you ask.

No, seriously. Some dude in one of my leagues…..and supposedly a very competitive league, dropped Jason Kipnis during his early season elbow woes/struggles at the plate. I was shocked. Dumbfounded. Did he not remember the level of production Kipnis provided last season? Was three-quarters of a month enough of a slump to totally sour people on him? Buffoons! He now sits on my roster in that league along with four other leagues as well and I’m loving the power/speed combo at the keystone now.

You don’t get much more forgotten than Jeremy Guthrie, do you? The guy single-handedly destroyed fantasy dreams everywhere before he arrived in Kansas City, blowing up ratios like Wile E. Coyote with an Acme dynamite plunger. He fell so far off the radar that when I did draft him this year, I was openly mocked by the entire league. Well, he’s now 4-0 with a 2.40 ERA over 41.1 innings and while his strikeout rate isn’t the sexiest, the rest of the numbers are all falling into a very good place. I will point out that his FIP is at 4.45 which could indicate that he is due for a decline of some sort, so he could be a solid sell-high candidate. Just keep pointing to his KC numbers when negotiating as someone will be enticed.

And then there’s Jose Fernandez. Maybe not truly forgotten, but after a trio of less-than-spectacular outings, he was being pushed aside as someone who was in need of a demotion back to Double-A from whence he came. This start, however, shows that he’s learning and obviously open to making adjustments, something so few youngsters are willing to do. I’m not saying he’ll be the be-all, end-all, but he’s definitely not someone to be cast aside just because of a few rough patches.

Fantasy Losers

Brandon Belt, 1B SF	0-4, BB, 3K
Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI	0-3, 3 K
Albert Pujols, 1B LAA	0-4, 2K
Matt Magill, SP LAD	ND, 33.75 ERA, 7.50 WHIP, 2 K
Lucas Harrell, SP HOU	L, 16.62 ERA, 3.23 WHIP, 3 K

After going 3-for-10 with two home runs and six RBI in the series against Arizona, it looked as if Brandon Belt was finally getting it. But an 0-for-7 run here against the Dodgers is making it awfully difficult to continue believing in this guy. I’m not ready to give up, but unless I start to see some more consistency in May, he’s going to be relegated to some serious bench duty. Temporarily gone….but certainly not forgotten.

Nothing really to say about Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols as neither is going to perform day in and day out. But both have phenomenal power to offer and so you accept days like this. Just comes with the territory. More for Howard than Pujols, but you’ll still take it.

As for Lucas Harrell and Matt Magill, well, the sensible fantasy owner in you kept them from your roster in the first place, so we can all move along from here…

Key Injuries

Juan Francisco, 3B ATL – ankle (day to day)

Chris Davis, 3B BAL – knee (day to day)

Miguel Gonzalez, SP BAL – thumb (day to day)

Andrew Bailey, RP BOS – biceps (day to day)

Jake Peavy, SP CHW – back (likely to miss May 5 start)

Vinnie Pestano, RP CLE – elbow (likely headed to 15-day DL)

Dexter Fowler, OF COL – hip (day to day)

Scott Downs, RP LAA – ribs (day to day)

Mark Ellis, 2B LAD – leg (day to day)

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B LAD – neck (day to day)

Donovan Solano, 2B MIA – leg (day to day)

David Robertson, RP NYY – hamstring (day to day)

Chris Young, OF OAK – quadriceps (15-day DL)

Jose Tabata, OF PIT – hamstring (day to day)

Angel Pagan, OF SF – hamstring (day to day)

Yunel Escobar, SS TB – wrist (day to day)

David Murphy, OF TEX – illness (day to day)

Ricky Romero, SP TOR – forearm (day to day)

Denard Span, OF WAS – foot (day to day)

Jayson Werth, OF WAS – hamstring (out until May 7)

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a vaiety of web sites. You can find his personal musings on RotobuzzGuy.com and for questions, thoughts or comments, you can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.

Rounding the Bases: The Injury Bug Takes Second Bite Out of Hanley, Sends Chris Davis for MRI

Sat, 04 May 2013 07:08:32 -0700

It’s been a fairly rough week for yours truly here, not just in real life (hence the absence for the majority of the week), but in the fantasy racket as well. Injuries have been absolutely brutal to all of my fantasy teams during this young season and Friday turned out to be yet another dark and dismal day in my attempts to climb back into contention. Obviously there’s plenty more to come, but when your team is sitting in a relatively deep hole and you continue to lose players faster than you are getting them back, the fantasy doldrums seem a lot like a permanent residence than just a temporary situation.

While it sure was nice to see Aramis Ramirez finally make it back, the evening was like a trip to the emergency room as more players continued to drop. Things seemed pretty chill in the early goings of the night, but the late games hit and so did the injury bug. For starters, the red-hot Dexter Fowler, who extended his hit streak to 11 games in the first inning, left in the fourth after straining his hip flexor trying to leg out a bunt. They’re saying that the injury is mild, but you can bet that the Rockies are going to play it safe and keep him out for at least Saturday, if not the rest of the weekend. But mild as it may be, speed is the majority of Fowler’s game and a hip flexor problem is certainly something that could linger.

Now I’m not exactly sure as to which came first, but it was like a double whammy when I found out the Adrian Gonzalez was a late scratch with a neck injury and Baltimore’s Chris Davis left the game in the fifth inning with a knee injury. A-Gone is likely just day to day and should be back at some point this weekend, but Davis is heading out for an MRI which is never really good. Davis seemed to be pretty upbeat which might calm the nerves a bit, but when a guy is hitting .330 with nine home runs and 29 RBI, chances are he’s the majority of your offense and losing him can be a tough hit to take.

And then the big one happened. Just when you thought you were ready for Hanley Ramirez to take off in 2013, he was gone before he barely even got started. The injury is being classified as a strained hamstring, but we could be looking at another lengthy absence. We’ll get some test results soon enough, but given the way he grabbed the back of his leg and the fact that two trainers had to carry him off the field, the outlook doesn’t appear to be very good. What’s worse for fantasy owners is that those who own him probably dropped whatever shortstop they were using in his stead , especially after his 5-for-8 with a home run performance in the two games prior to Friday night. Now it’s back to the slim pickins of the waiver wire looking for more middle infield help. Who know....maybe Justin Sellers is still there.

Obviously injuries are a part of the game and you’ve got to fight through them year after year, but knowing that doesn’t make the outlook any less bleak for you this season. What’s even more troubling is that your waiver wire is probably thinner than a teenage girl with a self-esteem issue which means it’s time to start getting creative on the trade market. Start picking categories where you can make the biggest impact in the shortest amount of time and build up your stats there as quick as you can. Rotate that methodology for a few of them and hopefully…..just hopefully, you’ll start getting some healthy bodies back into that lineup for a strong second half run.

Now let’s hit the highlights from Friday…

Fantasy Beast of the Day

	IP	W	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Jason Vargas, LAA	9.0	1	3	0	0	2	3	0.00	0.56

Typically an underrated starter, Jason Vargas is starting to emerge from the shadows now that he’s pitching well in a major market. He’s never been a big strikeout guy, but his ratios were relatively solid for a back of the rotation type guy when he was with Seattle and in the first few starts this season for the Angels. But over his last two outings, Vargas has taken it up a notch and has given up just two runs over his last 17 innings (two starts) with a 10:4 K:BB. He’ll look to make it three killer starts in a row next week when he takes on the Astros, so if he’s lingering out there on your waiver wire, you might want to think about picking him up.

Fantasy Highs

Matt Holliday, OF STL	3-4, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
Miguel Montero, C ARI	2-3, 3 R, HR, RBI, BB
Kyle Seager, 3B SEA	3-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
Felix Hernandez, SP SEA	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 7 K
Derek Holland, SP TEX	W, 0.00 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 9 K

Not much more you can say about Matt Holliday, is there? He’s a top 20 outfielder who makes regular appearances in this section and should continue to do so all year long. What’s probably most impressive is that he still hasn’t missed a beat since Albert Pujols left.

It’s nice to see Miguel Montero make an appearance here as he puts together a strong game on Friday. Always a consistent performer, Montero is actually off to an unusually slow start this year. Hopefully, this game is just a springboard to a nice stretch as he needs to pick it up to get back on pace for his usual career numbers.

While Kyle Seager saw a 16-game hit streak fall apart earlier in the week, he’s started another one back up just as quickly. He’s now hit in four straight and is 7-for-18 (.389) with a home run and three RBI in that span. Those who paid close attention to his line drive rate last season are likely reaping the benefits of having drafted him again this year, and the fact that he qualifies as both a second and third baseman in most leagues makes it even tastier.

Felix Hernandez continues to shine as Friday’s stellar performance moves him to 3-0 with a 0.60 ERA over his last four starts. Even better is the 35:2 K:BB over 30 innings in that span. The elbow problems seem to be plenty in the past here and while you may still be thinking about them and that a sell-high trade could be best, you should probably sit tight and let him anchor your rotation for a while.

Derek Holland’s bounce-back from a beating two starts ago continues and he’s now sitting on a 1.80 ERA with a 15:2 K:BB over his last 15 innings. With a little interleague action against the Brewers next week, look for him to make it three strong starts in a row.

Fantasy Lows

Seth Smith, OF OAK	0-5, 4 K
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B WAS	0-4, 4 K
Eric Young, OF COL	0-3, 3 K
Felix Doubront, SP BOS	L, 14.73 ERA, 3.555 WHIP, 2 K
Jose Veras, RP HOU	L, BS, 18.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP

Typical stuff in this section as everyone here….yes, even Jose Veras…..can bounce back from a bad night. Nobody here has made any real regular appearances in this section, so the concern is not all that high. Just be patient.

Key Injuries

Chris Davis, 1B BAL – knee (day to day)

Miguel Gonzalez, SP BAL – thumb (day to day)

Andrew Bailey, RP BOS – biceps (day to day)

Dewayne Wise, OF CHW – neck (day to day)

Nick Swisher, 1B CLE – shoulder (day to day)

Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL – leg (day to day)

Dexter Fowler, OF COL – hip (day to day)

Chris Getz, 2B KC – illness (day to day)

Carl Crawford, OF LAD – hamstring (day to day)

Mark Ellis, 2B LAD – leg (day to day)

Hanley Ramirez, 3B LAD – hamstring (likely headed to 15-day DL)

Chris Young, OF OAK – quadriceps (day to day)

Jose Tabata, OF PIT – hamstring (day to day)

Carlos Quentin, OF SD – knee (day to day)

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Weekly Master Notes by Todd Zola

Thu, 02 May 2013 06:21:51 -0700

It’s time to cut to the chase. Theory is good if not necessary. I take as much pride in helping to teach proper analysis as I do correctly evaluating a player. But let’s be honest. You want my opinion on some struggling players so that’s what we’ll do. Well, I’ll drop in just a little more theory to work in concert with our BABIP discussion from last week.

If you recall, the crux of using BABIP in analysis is to flesh out the luck from the performance. What remains is of course skill and the main means of evaluating skill is strikeout rate along with walk rate. So when we go through our player breakdowns, there will be frequent mentions of strikeout rate and walk rate with the occasional contact rate mixed in. Strikeout and walk rate are both measured per plate appearance while contact rate is per at bat. While there subtle differences with contact and strikeout rates, for our intents and purposes (as opposed to intensive purposes – don’t lie, that’s what every kid thought the expression was) we can use them interchangeably.

Part of what I do to make ends meet is answer e-mails. Recently, the same names have appeared in the majority of queries: Ike Davis, Eric Hosmer, Miguel Montero and Salvador Perez so today let’s take a look at these scuffling hitters using the principles of BABIP and strikeout rate.

Ike Davis, New York Mets – The main thing to keep in mind is after June 1 last season Davis hit .253 with 27 homers. This is not to suggest he’ll repeat that this season, but more as an example of what can happen when you give up on a player too soon. The problem is when the example used is the actual player, it can be inferred history will repeat. That’s not what I’m saying; I’m just saying it could happen. In fact, that’s the key to all analysis. None of us know what will happen. All we can do is to discern what the odds say should happen. More often than not it does. But occasionally it doesn’t. This doesn’t mean we were wrong; it just means this time the player defied odds – it happens. In the other hand, if the player does as we suggest, we really weren’t right, the player just did what he was supposed to do. The right or wrong part is knowing the proper process, not getting the proper result. Oops, got off on a little tangential digression there, let’s get back on topic.

Davis is sporting a .189 BABIP, well below his career mark of .285. But here’s the thing: his line drive rate is well above league average and he hits more grounder than fly balls. He’s lost about six hits due to dumb luck. Adding those hits into his numbers and he’s hitting .235 as opposed to the actual .165 mark where he now resides. Granted, .235 is no great shakes, but that’s low due to an elevated strikeout rate – perhaps because he is pressing due his bad luck or perhaps just due to the sample of pitchers he has faced have his number and he’ll fan less as the season progresses.

For kicks, let’s say that instead of his present 30 percent strikeout rate, Davis whiffed at a 24 percent clip. That would mean he would have struck out six fewer times leading to another hit or two. Adding that in to his average and Davis would be hitting between .250 and .260, exactly as he did last season after June 1.

Right now, Davis has 4 dingers. In 2012, he had five through May 31.

Now let’s take a step back since we took a couple of leaps of faith. I’m comfortable suggesting Davis BABIP will correct, but we don’t know to what level. Yeah, his line drive rate is high but we’re at the point of the season where two games without a liner and it’s back to league average. We’re also making a big assumption that Davis will shave those six percentage points off his strikeout rate. There’s no guarantee that happens, though since Davis has never fanned this much for a whole season, it’s bound to get better.

Putting it together, if I have Davis I’m at worse reserving him. There’s no way I am giving up this early. In fact, if his owner is antsy, Davis is atop my hitter buy low list.

Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals – I’m going to come right out and say it; Hosmer is really pissing me off. I’m not the only one that got up on his soapbox and swore up and down last season was a fluke. But that doesn’t make it better.

The weird part is what we said should happen with respect to BABIP has happened. Last year Hosmer was snake-bit but this year the hits are falling. Hosmer’s BABIP is right where it should be, but his average is still middling since the twenty-four year old is fanning at an elevated rate. Part of why I was so adamant that Hosmer would rebound was last year his contact rate was still very good. That was then, now it is down about six percentage points.

All that said, no one is really complaining that Hosmer is hitting just .250. The concern is a total paucity of power. And it’s not like he’s hitting doubles that will go over the fence. Hosmer has a mere four doubles to go along with no homers. Over his first two campaigns, 31 percent of Hosmer’s hits have been of the extra base variety. So far we’re talking 22 percent this season. The question is where has all the power gone?

Hosmer’s margin of error when it comes to power is slim since he lofts balls at a rate well below league average. He relies on a league average HR/FB to carry his power. The hope is over time, like his teammate Billy Butler, Hosmer would hit fit more flies hence more dingers. So far this is not the season.

The homers will come. This won’t be Hosmer’s break out campaign where he tops twenty, but before long, he’ll get off the schneid and end up in the teens. And, he has stolen a couple of bags without being caught. I’m still driving the Hosmer bandwagon but I’d sure like to see a ball clear the fence sooner than later.

Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks – Montero is one of my favorite fantasy catchers since he plays the majority of his teams’ games and sits in the heart of the order in a hitter’s park. Hence, his runs and RBI potential exceed that of catchers that play fewer games and/or hit lower in the order. But so far this season, he’s knocked in a scant ten teammates while scoring only nine times himself.

Montero’s walk and strikeout rates are in the neighborhood of his career norm. His .236 BABIP is about 80 points under his career mark. As opposed to Davis, Montero’s line drive rate is down which is at least part of the reason it is low. Since 2008, Montero has not sported a line drive rate below 19 percent so this season’s 16 percent should correct. More line drives mean more hits and more hits leads to more run production. That’s why I carry a so-called expert card – because I offer sage nuggets like that one.

Like Hosmer, Montero’s power is also lacking. The veteran backstop has a mere one big fly with just twice as many two-baggers. On the other hand, again like Davis, last season Montero’s pop was slow out of the gate as he smacked only two homers in April and none in May. However, he got the power stroke back with a total of ten in June and July. The message is again not that Montero will have history repeat but solely that he is still capable of the mid-teens power originally projected thus it would be premature to cut bait.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals – What makes Perez such an attractive fantasy option is a career contact rate making Joe Mauer envious. Well, a little bit anyway. In a game where so many catchers damage your batting average, Perez was expected to help it while also providing a little pop. The problem is his contact rate has plummeted as he is fanning twice as much as usual. Perez is still carrying a high BABIP at .324, but a 20 percent strikeout rate has tempered his average and associated production.

Perez is also coming up short in the power department, though there is hope. In his rookie campaign, 26 percent of his knocks went for extra bases. In his injury shortened sophomore campaign, that rose to 31 percent. So far he’s back to 26 percent with one homer, one triple with doubles. A gust of wind and he has a couple of homers which is fine for someone expected to settle in the teens.

The conundrum with both Montero and McCann is in shallow leagues with one catcher, there are a couple of receivers available on waivers that profile like their scuffling colleagues. Brian McCann is similar to Montero and Carlos Ruiz is akin to Salvador Perez. A great many e-mail inquiries have asked, “Should I drop Montero for McCann” or “Dump Perez for Ruiz?”

While practicing patience is almost always the recommended course of action, both of these moves are defensible since the alternative is at least in the neighborhood. My advice has been consistent. I’m holding Montero but prefer Ruiz to Perez. I’m concerned that with the emergence of Evan Gattis, McCann may not play as frequently as before, since it’s not like his defense is Gold Glove caliber. I prefer Montero’s home park and his spot in the order. Perez does not have the track record to unequivocally deem his strikeouts will wane. I suspect they will, mostly because we forget that Perez is still working off the rust from missing the bulk of 2012, but still, his history is limited. While Ruiz had a career year and is due some regression, I’ll take his reliability, even at an advanced age, over Perez. This is more a vote of confidence for Ruiz as it is an indictment of Perez.

Now let’s switch gears and finish with a bit of a vent that will segue into some more of that salient advice befitting a so-called expert. I love answering e-mails, I really do. But when the pose is “Smith and Jones for Thomas and Adams, who win”, my blood begins to simmer a bit. Completely ignoring that much more context is needed (league format, size, scoring, needs, etc.), the notion that fantasy trades must be won or lost drive me batty.

Don’t get me wrong, I obviously want to get the better end of the deal, but I want it to manifest via an improved lineup with greater points scoring potential and not winning a trade on paper, based on some arbitrary perception of value emanating solely from the players involved. Trades are about lineup impact, not value in a vacuum, or as many e-mails begin “All things being equal”.

The proper evaluation of a trade involves looking at the roster before versus roster after, by considering the associated balancing moves if the traded players do not simply replace each other. That’s what matters, the end result. If you deal a pitcher for a hitter, the pertinent analysis is your old lineup versus the lineup with a replacement pitcher along with the newly acquired hitter. Chances are you have a downgrade in pitching but an upgrade in hitting. If the net result is more points, you win!

But, there is a good chance your trade partner goes through the same exercise and also enjoys a net gain. Guess what – they win too!

What is this, Tee-ball where everyone wins? No, it’s a properly constructed trade, benefitting both sides.

Too many fantasy players set out to “rip-off” the other guy. I’m not naïve, I know there are a myriad of leagues where this thievery is rampant and to some more satisfying than understanding BABIP. But do you really need to e-mail me just to get a measure of self gratification from a so-called expert?