Rounding the Bases – MLB Offseason Movement

Posted by Ray Flowers on 01/04/2012 | 0 Comments

Tags: Erik Bedard, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle, Chris Capuano, Coco Crisp, Michael Cuddyer, Ryan Doumit, Fran Francisco, Rafael Furcal, Aaron Harang, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Albert Pujols, Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Josh Willingham, C.J. Wilson, Andrew Bailey, Melky Cabrera, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, Carlos Quentin, Jonathan Sanchez, Sergio Santos, Huston Street

Yes, it's true, the regular season of football is over, so now is the time to start focusing on the diamond. You may barely be over your New Year's Eve hangover, I know the seven Long Island's I pulled back on are still affecting my vision, but it's time to get to breaking down the 2012 fantasy baseball season. To do that I'll take a sweep around the landscape of the game and give some thoughts on the major players that have switched teams this offseason either by trade or through free agent signings. Did you overlook any of the moves due to drinking, lack of interest, or your intense focus on the fantasy football season?

Free Agent Signings

Erik Bedard, Pirates
(1 year, $4 million)
In the never ending quest to find the Ark of the Covenant, Indiana Jones... oh wait, sorry for that flashback. Truth is though that the search for a full season of starts from Bedard is nearly elusive as the treasure that Dr. Jones was searching for in Raiders of the Lost Ark. Bedard last made 30 starts in 2006, an over the past four years he has thrown 81, 83, zero, and 129.1 innings. It's a safe signing for the Pirates at only one year, an if he can make 30 starts in the NL he'll be a great addition to any fantasy roster.

Heath Bell, Marlins
(3 years, $27 million)
Bell should once again be one of the league leaders in saves (he's the only hurler in baseball with at least 40 saves each of the past three years). I do worry about the massive drop in his K/9 rate last season, he lost two full batters from his 9.22 career mark, and the fact that his ground ball rate was a career low and five percent below his career rate (48.3 percent).

Carlos Beltran, Cardinals
(2 years, $26 million)
He doesn't run anymore, but he can still swing the stick. The Cards plan on hitting Beltran second which would leave Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman to knock in Beltran with frequency. The 10 times in his career that he has appeared in at least 140 games he's never failed to hit at least 16 homers, with 78 RBIs and 78 runs scored.

Mark Buehrle, Marlins
(4 years, $56 million)
The only pitcher in baseball to win 10 or more games while throwing at least 200 innings in each of the last 11 seasons, Buehrle is the quintessential innings eater. A move to the NL should help, but he's still deficient in the strikeout category (he's averaged just 104 Ks the past three years). A nice back of the rotation arm that won't ruin your ratios.

Chris Capuano, Dodgers
(2 years, $10 million)
A nice, short-term signing by the Dodgers. Capuano has failed to register 70 innings in three of the past four seasons, but last year he twirled 186 innings while posting a strong K/9 mark of 8.13. He's always an injury risk, and his career ratios are boring (4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but the K potential is intriguing since he will likely be extremely cheap on draft day.

Coco Crisp, Athletics
(2 years, $14 million)
All  I'm gonna say with Crisp is this – be careful. Most will see the AL leading 49 steals, tied with Brett Gardner, and go gaga for Coco Puffs. What I see is a guy who is 32 years old who has one season of more than 32 steals, one who owns a career slash line of .275/.330/.406 , and one who has averaged 95 games played the last four years. Tread lightly.

Michael Cuddyer, Rockies
(3 years, $31 million)
He couldn't have landed in a better spot. Cuddyer though may be overpriced on draft day. Yes he is versatile, he'll qualify in the outfield and first base in 2012 (he also appeared in 17 games at second base last year), but he's really not that good a hitter. He's hit .272 for his career, has only two seasons with 85 RBI, and per 550 at-bats he averages about 19 homers. Don't overpay because of his new address.

Ryan Doumit, Twins
(1 year, $3 million)
With Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau incapable of being counted on at this point to play a full slate of games, the Twins did an excellent job bringing Doumit into the fold. Never a bastion of health himself, Doumit should see some time at catcher, first and DH. He's got a nice bat, per 450 at-bats in his career his 5x5 line has been .271-15-61-54-2. How good would that look as your second catcher?

Frank Francisco, Mets
(2 years, $12 million)
When he's not throwing chairs at fans Francisco is a pretty darn effective hurler. The Mets have reworked their bullpen this offseason, but it's Francisco that is expected to close games out for the red headed step child of New York teams. Francisco has a live arm – he's averaged 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.

Rafael Furcal, Cardinals
(2 years, $14 million)
Furcal isn't an elite performer at this stage of his career, but he can still be very successful when he can drag his weary body onto the field (he's appeared in 100 games once in four years). Because of the injuries you would be wise to make sure you add a solid backup at the shortstop position, or better yet, just draft Furcal as your second option.

Aaron Harang, Dodgers
(2 years, $12 million)
Harang rebounded from three down seasons to win 14 games with a 3.64 ERA for the Padres in 2011. Though his address will change in '12, his performance should remain very similar to what he flashed last season, though his days as a 200-inning, difference making arm, are gone.

Joe Nathan, Rangers
(2 years, $15 million)
The Rangers signed Nathan to work the 9th inning pushing Neftali Feliz into the starting rotation. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in the second half, Nathan posted a 1.00 WHIP, 8.61 K/9 an a 4.40 K/BB ratio. He should be able to post his normal 30+ saves in his first year in Texas.

Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies
(4 years, $50 million)
Jonathan has posted a K/9 of at least 10.00 in each of the last five years, and last season was the second time that he posted a K/BB ratio of 8.70 or better – a Hall of Fame number. Papelbon has converted at least 31 saves each of the past six years, and barring injury, he will make it seven straight seasons in his first in the NL.

Albert Pujols, Angels
(10 years, $250 million)
The greatest hitter of our generation will take his talents to California and the American League. Still elite, it would be a monumental upset if he didn't up every one of the his 2011 numbers in 2012: .299 average, 37 homers, 99 RBI, 105 runs scored.

Aramis Ramirez, Brewers
(3 years, $36 million)
One of the most consistent sluggers in the game, Aramis had a slow start to the 2011 season but he still rallied to finish the year hitting .306 with 26 homers and 93 RBI. Aramis has hit at least 25 homers with 83 RBI in each of his last eight seasons of 120 games played. He's not elite, but he's as stable as they come at the hot corner.

Jose Reyes, Marlins
(6 years, $108 million)
The NL batting champ (.337) signed a huge money deal to take his wheels to Florida. Reyes hasn't stolen 40 bases since 2008 which, not coincidentally, was the last time that he appeared in more than 150 games. If he can stay healthy he could have a huge year in front of Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton, but it would be nice if he ran a bit more.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
(3 years, $38 million)
Rollins wanted four years but he settled on three to return to the only team he has known. If he bats atop the Phillies lineup as expected, an if he stays healthy, there's little reason to think that he won't be able to replicate his numbers from last season (.268-16-63-87-30) even if he is 33 years old.

Josh Willingham, Twins
(3 years, $21 million)
The guy can slug it, but the past four seasons he's averaged just 121 games played because of injury.  Per 500 at-bats the last five years Josh has averaged 25 homers a campaign, a total he surpasses last season when he went deep 29 times. Were you aware that Willingham had more RBI last season (98), than Carlos Gonzalez (97)?

C.J. Wilson, Angels
(5 years, $75 million)
The last two years Wilson has been one of the best left-handed starters in the game. He's won 15 games, with an ERA under 3.40, a WHIP under 1.26 and 170 or more Ks in both seasons. Leaving Texas for Anaheim should also help as his new home ball yard is more conducive to pitching than the bandbox down South.

Wheeling and Dealing

Andrew Bailey, Red Sox
The Sox lost Papelbon and went out and traded for the younger version in Bailey. The question with Bailey isn't talent, his arm is elite, it's whether or not he can stay healthy. If he does, there's little reason to think that Bailey will perform appreciably worse than Papelbon had for the Red Sox which means 35-40 saves should be expected.

Melky Cabrera, Giants
(For the Particulars of the deal see Giants, Royals Deal)
The Giants seem to think that Cabrera is going to cure their offensive woes. He won't be. Take a look at the link to understand why I say that.

Trevor Cahill, D'backs
(For the Particulars of the deal see Player Profile: Trevor Cahill)
I've been saying it forever, but I don't know how many have listened. Cahill will have a long and successful career, there's little doubt about that, but it wouldn't surprise me if his 2010 season ended up being the best effort of his career. Until the minor league punchout rate returns Cahill is just a decent rotation filler in the fantasy game.

Gio Gonzalez, Nationals
(For the particulars of the deal see Holiday Dealing)
Going for broke, the Nats dealt a ton of their top end minor league talent to add GG to their rotation. One of the more dominating lefties in the game, Gio should enjoy life in the NL better than he did in the AL, but don't overestimate the league change – Oakland was one of the better pitching ball yards in the Junior Circuit.

Mat Latos, Reds
(For the Particulars of the deal see Reds Deal to Add Latos)
This was a big deal in which the Padres added a massive amount of young talent and the right arm of Edinson Volquez. Latos better be an elite #1 starter or this deal could come back to bite the Reds in coming years. Latos will find the going tougher in Cincy than he did in San Diego, and he regressed in most major categories in 2011 when compared to his breakout 2010 effort.

Carlos Quentin, Padres
(For the Particulars of the deal see Player Profile: Carlos Quentin)
The move to the NL to play his homes games at Petco Park certainly isn't going to help Quentin. He's also never had a season with 500 at-bats which is a major reason that he's only had one season with more than 26 homers or 87 RBI. He doesn't run, is always hurt, and has a .254 career batting average. Good luck building your fantasy team around that.

Jonathan Sanchez, Royals
(For the Particulars of the deal see Giants, Royals Deal)
Here are the facts. (1) Sanchez has an amazing left arm. His career K/9 rate is 9.36. (2) He often has no idea where he is throwing the ball. His career BB/9 rate is 4.78. (3) He's thrown more than 165 innings on once in his career (193.1 in 2010). (4) He often appears disinterested. He's a huge risk to depend on in 2012, but there's no denying he has an elite arm.

Sergio Santos, Blue Jays
The White Sox dealt their closer to the Blue Jays for young RHP Nestor Molina. Though he struggled at times in his first season as a closer, the numbers sparkled with Santos – 30 saves, 13.07 K/9, 3.17 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP. For a guy who has only 115 big league innings under his belt, Santos has been amazingly impressive.

Huston Street, Padres
The Padres lost their closer when Bell signed with the Marlins, so they went out and brought in Street for nothing (cash and a PTBNL). By the way, Street had better marks than Bell in 2011 in K/9 and BB/9, and it could be argued that Street is actually the better pitcher. Of course, he's also injured more than a paparazzi trying to climb over a fence to catch Britney Spears making out with her new beau.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87. Ray's baseball analysis can be found at BaseballGuys.com and his minute to minute musings can be located at the Baseball Guys' Twitter Account.