Rounding the Bases: Do You Believe in Carlos Santana?

Posted by Howard Bender on 07/19/2012 | 0 Comments

Tags: fantasy baseball, Carlos Santana, Adrian Gonzalez, Cody Ross, Hiroki Kuroda, Dan Uggla, Doug Fuster, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Downs, Jason Kubel, Justin Smoak, Taylor Teagarden, Pedro Hernandez

For years, all I heard out of my granddaddy’s mouth were a few colorful sayings that any nine year old boy would love and the ever popular, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”  Didn’t matter how many other people knew something to be true, if he didn’t see it first hand, he refused to believe it.  “Hey Grandpa,” I would say earnestly.  “They make popcorn that you can cook in the microwave in under five minutes.”  “Pffffffft!  I’ll believe it when I see it.”  “Hey Grandpa, they make telephones you can carry around with you and make calls any time you want.”  “Bah.  I’ll believe it when I see it.”  Over and over again, that curmudgeonly, raspy, almost cartoon-like voice echoed in my head.  “I’ll believe it when I see it.” 

So you can imagine the horror and self-loathing that took place when I hit that moment that I actually became my grandfather.  “Carlos Santana has slump-changing performance,” was what the headline read.  I read it, rubbed my eyes and read it again.  Same words.  And the first thing that popped out of my mouth was Grandpa’s own, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

Next to maybe Eric Hosmer (a story for another day), there hasn’t been a more disappointing player in fantasy baseball than Carlos Santana.  In the league that I own him in, my primary keeper league, I protected Santana coming into this season, expecting him to produce all year how he produced in the second half of last season.  He hasn’t even come close to meeting expectations.  Things looked pretty good for a little while there in April, but when the calendar flipped to May, the switch inside Santana that made him a ballplayer flipped off.

Sure, some will blame the concussion he sustained, but really, it was mild at best.  Blame it on the low BABIP?  His was .263 last year, seven points lower than where it is now.  His walk rate is the same, his strikeout rate is the same and the only thing about his batted ball data that seems out of whack is that he’s hitting more line drives than fly balls.  But isn’t that supposed to help him with more hits and a better average?  Even his contact rates and swing strike percentage are in line with what he did last season.

So if there’s nothing in his numbers that says anything drastically different is going on, can I assume that he will power it up here in the second half just as he did last season?  Can I expect 15 home runs and 40 RBI between now and the end of the season?  Some are saying yes.  Some are saying that Wednesday night’s performance is a springboard; just the tip of the iceberg.  Well, as my granddaddy always used to say, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Due to time constraints, we’re going to just quickly pass through the highlights (and lowlights) from Wednesday.  There are several early games beginning on Thursday, so we’ve got to hop to it here.

Fantasy Beast of the Day

A phenomenal game, indeed, and definitely worthy of the award and praise.  But the real question is, how much playing time will Cody Ross actually see the rest of the way with Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford back in the lineup?  Ross tends to be streaky, so while he’s hot he’ll play.  But when he starts to cool off, and he will, how will Bobby Valentine work the platoon?

Fantasy Ups

I actually believe in every player listed here save for maybe Matt Downs.  He might be getting some extra playing time at first in the wake of the Carlos Lee trade, but it’s just a matter of time before the club brings up Brett Wallace and puts Downs back on the bench.

Fantasy Downs

All to be expected.  Strikeouts for Dan Uggla, an occasional blown save for Jonathan Papelbon and who’s idea was it in Chicago to throw a rookie lefty into Fenway Park in July?

Injuries

Fortunately, nothing really new to report here.  Check back with yesterday’s column to see the daily bumps and bruises that would keep a player day-to-day.

Apologies for the brevity here, but maybe you’ll get a bonus column tomorrow…..

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including his own, The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.