Adrian Gonzalez emerged as one of the finest power hitters in baseball during his final four seasons with the San Diego Padres. He hit 30 home runs every year and 40 one year while playing in cavernous Petco Park. His days as that kind of power hitter are gone. That is not a whisper from an anonymous scout. That is the word from Gonzalez himself, who says he has been unable to recover the swing that made him an elite power hitter. "I can still hit home runs," Gonzalez said. "That is not going to be an issue. The full power is not the same."Gonzalez, 30, said he altered his swing when he injured his shoulder in 2010, his final season in San Diego. He had surgery after that season, then was traded to the Boston Red Sox. "Last year, I tried to go back to the swing I had before I got hurt," he said. "I tried it for the whole first half, with horrible results."

You heard it from the man himself. That means his ceiling now becomes 15-20 HRs instead of 25-30, lowering his fantasy value. As long as he remains a close to .300 hitter and drives in 90-100 runs a season, he will still be a valuable first baseman in fantasy baseball, though, so don't go rushing to trade him just yet.
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Gonzalez was actually slightly better with the Red Sox than with the Dodgers last season, so I am not sure I totally buy the idea he was horrible in the first half because he was trying to hit home runs but now he is different. Athletes are usually the most unreliable sources when it comes to accessing fantasy value. I don't think anyone was projecting Gonzalez to hit 30 home runs this season, but I still believe he can hit 25.
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6 May , 12:32 PM Source

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