How New NFL Rules Will Affect 2011 Fantasy Football Production

Posted by Igor Derysh on 05/18/2011 | 0 Comments

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Ever since Roger Goodell took over the NFL, the league has made many a rule change to “better protect players.” The rule changes this year may have been overshadowed by the lockout but they will have a major impact on the (hopefully) upcoming NFL and fantasy football season.

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There are two major rule changes this year. First, defensive players who had previously not been able to launch themselves at defenseless receivers will now be prohibited from launching themselves at any “defenseless player.” Second, the kick off line has been moved from the 30 yard-line to the 35, giving kickers an extra five yards in an attempt to reduce injuries to returners.

First, the defenseless player rule. The new rules prevent heavy hits to quarterbacks, running backs, and kick returners whereas previously they had applied only to receivers. This means that guys like James Harrison, Dunta Robinson, Brandon Meriweather, and Julius Peppers, all of whom were fined heavily for hits in 2010, will now start seeing suspensions. Offensive players, particularly quarterbacks, will be better protected and the rule should absolutely help your fantasy players stay on the field more.

The more important rule change, as far as fantasy goes, is the kick off changes. With so many amazing kick returners in the league, it seems almost unfair that a 5-yard rule change would affect their production so much. Obviously players will still be able to return the ball if they feel they can bring it back from the endzone or if it was kicked into the wind, but how much does the 5-yards affect player production?

ESPN reports that 16% of kickoffs from the 30-yard-line in 2010-11 resulted in touchbacks. Meanwhile, of the kicks from the 35 (due to penalty) went for a touchback 37% of the time. That is more than twice as many. So how much will 20%-25% less kickoffs impact the league's top returners? Well, let's see what their stats would look with 20-25% less kick returns.

1. Leon Washington
After breaking his leg in his final year with the Jets, Washington broke onto the Seahawks as a full-time kick returner. In his best returning season yet, Washington ran it back for a combined 1,461 yards and 3 TDs. Strictly statistically speaking, that same kind of effort would amount to approximately 1,150 yards.

2. LaRod Stephens-Howling
In his second season as the Cardinals' kick returner, Stephens-Howling put up a monster year; running for 1,548 yards and 2 touchdowns. That sort of effort this season would have earned him about 1,200 yards.

3. Brad Smith
Drafted as a quarterback and used primarily as a wide receiver, Smith spent last season becoming one of the top returners in the league. Alas, his 1,432 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns would be cut to around 1,100 yards with 20% less attempts.

4. Jacoby Ford
What did Jacoby Ford do in his rookie season, outside of 470 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns? Just run kickoffs back for 1,280 yards and 3 touchdowns. Or, about 985 yards in 2011-12 levels.

5. Brandon Tate
Tate's breakout as a kick returner for the Patriots ended in a great showing. His 1,057 yards and 2 touchdowns were among the best in the league. In 2011-12, he would lose nearly 10 kickoffs and get roughly 810 yards.

6. Joshua Cribbs
Cribbs, best known for his successes as a returner, would also see a huge cut. Though he only returned for a career worst 814 yards in 2010-11, that same effort would net him just 625 yards this coming season.

Of course, those numbers are strictly speaking from a standpoint of cutting 20-25% of kick return attempts. Players returning from the end zone will certainly add some yardage in that part of the field, we'll just have to see how much.

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