It’s no secret that I cut my teeth in this industry as a fantasy baseball analyst so a big part of what I’m about to discuss emanates from that perspective. One of my pet peeves with football rankings is at times they’re illogical. To be clear, I’m talking more about rankings for the traditional season-long formats, either weekly or for the year. I understand not everyone projects the expected points and ranks accordingly – that’s not my issue (though that’s the recommended process). Regardless of how one evaluates expected performance, there needs to be some logic to the expectations. You can’t project a team’s receiving corps to catch a total of five touchdowns while only chalking up three for the quarterback. I won’t go strawman and list a bunch of these to make my point – hopefully you get it.

The reason this is relevant is because I base my selections on the aggregate rank of respected industry analysts and sometimes their ranks are contradictory as discussed above. Using a large enough sample should flesh things out but sometimes they don’t.

This week, there’s a pretty strong example to illustrate the potential issue.

It’s widely anticipated that the Pittsburgh Steelers roll all over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens secondary is suspect and teams have been throwing at will. So it makes sense that Ben Roethlisberger is ranked second overall among quarterbacks with Antonio Brown on top of the wide receiver pack. Where it gets sketchy is Martavis Bryant is seventh and Markus Wheaton is 35th among receiver, Heath Miller is the 10th-ranked tight end with DeAngelo Williams checking in at No. 2 among running backs. My suspicion is if you assign each what it usually takes in terms of performance to finish in that spot, irrespective of the juiciness of the matchup, the total would be an unreasonable expectation for the Steelers’ offense.

There’s a bevy of fine DFS research focusing on correlation between positions with respect to efficient and optimal lineup construction. This principle and logical rankings go hand-in-hand so hopefully you’re aware of some of the conventional wisdom in this area such as avoid using a team’s QB and RB in cash while stacking QB and WR/TE in GPP play.

The point of this discussion is I see too many lineups in the cash games and tourneys I play that ignore the correlation findings and are in essence illogical. This week some will justify using Roethlisberger and Williams together by contending Williams is active in the passing game. They’ll look at ranking like I presented and rationalize this is OK.

It’s not. It’s illogical.

Before we get to this week’s cash game better options, the tight end position is a bit different than normal. The first five spots for each site are chalk – the top TE by rank gets the top DFS salary etc. In other words, there’s no significant projected return on investment – which is one of the tenets when building a lineup. There are, however, a couple of nicely priced options at the back end. As such, most will gravitate there – which is fine. However, especially in cash games it’s not all about ROI, it’s essentially about amassing ample points to beat the money line. If you can save salary elsewhere, it’s perfectly fine to use a top-ranked tight end that’s going to contribute a ton of points but not a ton of value relative to their salary.

As always, it’s best to use the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook Pro to facilitate final decsions.

KEY:

ARPAverage Ranking by Position
StDevStandard Deviation from ARP
RankRank from ARP
DFS RankRank from DFS Salary

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES

QuarterbackARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Cam Newton1.60.9119300Some risk of leaving early
Ben Roethlisberger2.01.0228900Offense clicking on all cylinders
Blake Bortles3.01.037.58200My guy for most exposure this week
Matthew Stafford8.41.18117600Benefiting from Golden Tate stepping up 
Teddy Bridgewater15.81.617196600Expecting shoot out and Adrian Peterson hobbled
Running BackARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Doug Martin3.41.544.58100Team wants him to win rushing title
DeAngelo Williams3.01.72.567400Steelers implied total is very high
David Johnson2.01.0177300Chalkity chalk chalk chalk.
Charcandrick West5.82.55106700Spencer Ware not expected to play much
Tim Hightower11.43.61014.56300With Drew Brees hobbled, could see more touches
Christine Michael16.22.415.5285500Appears to be the man in Seattle
Karlos Williams13.47.81331.55400Gets start for LeSean McCoy if healthy himself
Wide ReceiverARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Antonio Brown1.00.0119300Pretty good receiver for a punt returner
Allen Robinson3.62.124.58400Tons of targets and red zone threat
Brandon Marshall4.41.7368300Some risk Bill Belichick takes him out of play
Mike Evans8.01.2678200Bears susceptible to big wideouts
Sammy Watkins7.83.5511.57700Not just a big-play guy anymore
Martavis Bryant8.44.37167200Cheaper way to get a piece of Steelers
Brandin Cooks13.06.213207000More comfortable if Drew Brees plays
Golden Tate17.07.014.5256700Bargain with or without Calvin Johnson active
Rueben Randle26.23.527415700Gets start in place of Odell Beckham Jr.
Tight EndARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Delanie Walker3.40.5336600Could be team's top receiving option
Julius Thomas4.01.2446500Now integral part of game plan
Gary Barnidge5.60.9556400Keeps getting it done
Travis Kelce6.21.3666100Probably a better GPP play
Benjamin Watson7.02.077.55600Hobbled but a threat if he and Drew Brees active
Will Tye9.00.78135100Becoming a favorite of Eli Manning
Eric Ebron12.63.21319.54800If you need the cap space

 

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES

QuarterbackARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Cam Newton1.60.911.57500Some risk of leaving early
Ben Roethlisberger2.01.026.56800Offense clicking on all cylinders
Blake Bortles3.01.0386500My guy for most exposure this week
Matthew Stafford8.41.1896100Benefiting from Golden Tate stepping up 
Ryan Fitzpatrick10.81.81114.55200Will need to throw to keep up with Patriots
Running BackARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
DeAngelo Williams3.01.72.54.56500Steelers implied total is very high
David Johnson2.01.0185800Chalkity chalk chalk chalk
Charcandrick West5.82.5595700Spencer Ware not expected to play much
Tim Hightower11.43.610174500With Drew Brees hobbled, could see more touches
Karlos Williams13.47.813174500Appears to be the man in Seattle
Christine Michael16.22.415.5194400Gets start for LeSean McCoy if healthy himself
Bilal Powell22.68.021.528.53900Game flow favors Bilal Powell over Chris Ivory
Wide ReceiverARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Antonio Brown1.00.0119300Pretty good receiver for a punt returner
Allen Robinson3.62.1257500Tons of targets and red zone threat
Mike Evans8.01.2677300Bears susceptible to big wideouts
Sammy Watkins7.83.5512.56700Not just a big-play guy anymore
Doug Baldwin9.01.2912.56700OK, I give up
Brandin Cooks13.06.213185900More comfortable if Drew Brees plays
Golden Tate17.07.014.5205800Bargain with or without Calvin Johnson active
Martavis Bryant8.44.37225600Cheaper way to get a piece of Steelers
Michael Floyd17.05.614.527.54900Nice GPP play but also puny cash play
Rueben Randle26.23.527453500Gets start in place of Odell Beckham Jr.
Tight EndARPStDevRankDFS RankSalaryComment
Delanie Walker3.40.5335600Could be team's top receiving option
Julius Thomas4.01.2455100Now integral part of game plan
Gary Barnidge5.60.9574700Keeps getting it done
Travis Kelce6.21.3684300Probably a better GPP play
Will Tye9.00.78133500Becoming a favorite of Eli Manning
Eric Ebron12.63.213192900If you need the cap space