It’s no secret that I cut my teeth in this industry as a fantasy baseball analyst so a big part of what I’m about to discuss emanates from that perspective. One of my pet peeves with football rankings is at times they’re illogical. To be clear, I’m talking more about rankings for the traditional season-long formats, either weekly or for the year. I understand not everyone projects the expected points and ranks accordingly – that’s not my issue (though that’s the recommended process). Regardless of how one evaluates expected performance, there needs to be some logic to the expectations. You can’t project a team’s receiving corps to catch a total of five touchdowns while only chalking up three for the quarterback. I won’t go strawman and list a bunch of these to make my point – hopefully you get it.
The reason this is relevant is because I base my selections on the aggregate rank of respected industry analysts and sometimes their ranks are contradictory as discussed above. Using a large enough sample should flesh things out but sometimes they don’t.
This week, there’s a pretty strong example to illustrate the potential issue.
It’s widely anticipated that the Pittsburgh Steelers roll all over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens secondary is suspect and teams have been throwing at will. So it makes sense that Ben Roethlisberger is ranked second overall among quarterbacks with Antonio Brown on top of the wide receiver pack. Where it gets sketchy is Martavis Bryant is seventh and Markus Wheaton is 35th among receiver, Heath Miller is the 10th-ranked tight end with DeAngelo Williams checking in at No. 2 among running backs. My suspicion is if you assign each what it usually takes in terms of performance to finish in that spot, irrespective of the juiciness of the matchup, the total would be an unreasonable expectation for the Steelers’ offense.
There’s a bevy of fine DFS research focusing on correlation between positions with respect to efficient and optimal lineup construction. This principle and logical rankings go hand-in-hand so hopefully you’re aware of some of the conventional wisdom in this area such as avoid using a team’s QB and RB in cash while stacking QB and WR/TE in GPP play.
The point of this discussion is I see too many lineups in the cash games and tourneys I play that ignore the correlation findings and are in essence illogical. This week some will justify using Roethlisberger and Williams together by contending Williams is active in the passing game. They’ll look at ranking like I presented and rationalize this is OK.
It’s not. It’s illogical.
Before we get to this week’s cash game better options, the tight end position is a bit different than normal. The first five spots for each site are chalk – the top TE by rank gets the top DFS salary etc. In other words, there’s no significant projected return on investment – which is one of the tenets when building a lineup. There are, however, a couple of nicely priced options at the back end. As such, most will gravitate there – which is fine. However, especially in cash games it’s not all about ROI, it’s essentially about amassing ample points to beat the money line. If you can save salary elsewhere, it’s perfectly fine to use a top-ranked tight end that’s going to contribute a ton of points but not a ton of value relative to their salary.
As always, it’s best to use the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook Pro to facilitate final decsions.
KEY:
ARP | Average Ranking by Position |
StDev | Standard Deviation from ARP |
Rank | Rank from ARP |
DFS Rank | Rank from DFS Salary |
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES
Quarterback | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Cam Newton | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 | 9300 | Some risk of leaving early |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 8900 | Offense clicking on all cylinders |
Blake Bortles | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 7.5 | 8200 | My guy for most exposure this week |
Matthew Stafford | 8.4 | 1.1 | 8 | 11 | 7600 | Benefiting from Golden Tate stepping up |
Teddy Bridgewater | 15.8 | 1.6 | 17 | 19 | 6600 | Expecting shoot out and Adrian Peterson hobbled |
Running Back | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Doug Martin | 3.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 4.5 | 8100 | Team wants him to win rushing title |
DeAngelo Williams | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 6 | 7400 | Steelers implied total is very high |
David Johnson | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 7 | 7300 | Chalkity chalk chalk chalk. |
Charcandrick West | 5.8 | 2.5 | 5 | 10 | 6700 | Spencer Ware not expected to play much |
Tim Hightower | 11.4 | 3.6 | 10 | 14.5 | 6300 | With Drew Brees hobbled, could see more touches |
Christine Michael | 16.2 | 2.4 | 15.5 | 28 | 5500 | Appears to be the man in Seattle |
Karlos Williams | 13.4 | 7.8 | 13 | 31.5 | 5400 | Gets start for LeSean McCoy if healthy himself |
Wide Receiver | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Antonio Brown | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 9300 | Pretty good receiver for a punt returner |
Allen Robinson | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2 | 4.5 | 8400 | Tons of targets and red zone threat |
Brandon Marshall | 4.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 6 | 8300 | Some risk Bill Belichick takes him out of play |
Mike Evans | 8.0 | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | 8200 | Bears susceptible to big wideouts |
Sammy Watkins | 7.8 | 3.5 | 5 | 11.5 | 7700 | Not just a big-play guy anymore |
Martavis Bryant | 8.4 | 4.3 | 7 | 16 | 7200 | Cheaper way to get a piece of Steelers |
Brandin Cooks | 13.0 | 6.2 | 13 | 20 | 7000 | More comfortable if Drew Brees plays |
Golden Tate | 17.0 | 7.0 | 14.5 | 25 | 6700 | Bargain with or without Calvin Johnson active |
Rueben Randle | 26.2 | 3.5 | 27 | 41 | 5700 | Gets start in place of Odell Beckham Jr. |
Tight End | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Delanie Walker | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3 | 3 | 6600 | Could be team's top receiving option |
Julius Thomas | 4.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 4 | 6500 | Now integral part of game plan |
Gary Barnidge | 5.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 5 | 6400 | Keeps getting it done |
Travis Kelce | 6.2 | 1.3 | 6 | 6 | 6100 | Probably a better GPP play |
Benjamin Watson | 7.0 | 2.0 | 7 | 7.5 | 5600 | Hobbled but a threat if he and Drew Brees active |
Will Tye | 9.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 13 | 5100 | Becoming a favorite of Eli Manning |
Eric Ebron | 12.6 | 3.2 | 13 | 19.5 | 4800 | If you need the cap space |
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES
Quarterback | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Cam Newton | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.5 | 7500 | Some risk of leaving early |
Ben Roethlisberger | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 6.5 | 6800 | Offense clicking on all cylinders |
Blake Bortles | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8 | 6500 | My guy for most exposure this week |
Matthew Stafford | 8.4 | 1.1 | 8 | 9 | 6100 | Benefiting from Golden Tate stepping up |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 10.8 | 1.8 | 11 | 14.5 | 5200 | Will need to throw to keep up with Patriots |
Running Back | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
DeAngelo Williams | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 6500 | Steelers implied total is very high |
David Johnson | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 8 | 5800 | Chalkity chalk chalk chalk |
Charcandrick West | 5.8 | 2.5 | 5 | 9 | 5700 | Spencer Ware not expected to play much |
Tim Hightower | 11.4 | 3.6 | 10 | 17 | 4500 | With Drew Brees hobbled, could see more touches |
Karlos Williams | 13.4 | 7.8 | 13 | 17 | 4500 | Appears to be the man in Seattle |
Christine Michael | 16.2 | 2.4 | 15.5 | 19 | 4400 | Gets start for LeSean McCoy if healthy himself |
Bilal Powell | 22.6 | 8.0 | 21.5 | 28.5 | 3900 | Game flow favors Bilal Powell over Chris Ivory |
Wide Receiver | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Antonio Brown | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 9300 | Pretty good receiver for a punt returner |
Allen Robinson | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2 | 5 | 7500 | Tons of targets and red zone threat |
Mike Evans | 8.0 | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | 7300 | Bears susceptible to big wideouts |
Sammy Watkins | 7.8 | 3.5 | 5 | 12.5 | 6700 | Not just a big-play guy anymore |
Doug Baldwin | 9.0 | 1.2 | 9 | 12.5 | 6700 | OK, I give up |
Brandin Cooks | 13.0 | 6.2 | 13 | 18 | 5900 | More comfortable if Drew Brees plays |
Golden Tate | 17.0 | 7.0 | 14.5 | 20 | 5800 | Bargain with or without Calvin Johnson active |
Martavis Bryant | 8.4 | 4.3 | 7 | 22 | 5600 | Cheaper way to get a piece of Steelers |
Michael Floyd | 17.0 | 5.6 | 14.5 | 27.5 | 4900 | Nice GPP play but also puny cash play |
Rueben Randle | 26.2 | 3.5 | 27 | 45 | 3500 | Gets start in place of Odell Beckham Jr. |
Tight End | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Delanie Walker | 3.4 | 0.5 | 3 | 3 | 5600 | Could be team's top receiving option |
Julius Thomas | 4.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 5 | 5100 | Now integral part of game plan |
Gary Barnidge | 5.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 7 | 4700 | Keeps getting it done |
Travis Kelce | 6.2 | 1.3 | 6 | 8 | 4300 | Probably a better GPP play |
Will Tye | 9.0 | 0.7 | 8 | 13 | 3500 | Becoming a favorite of Eli Manning |
Eric Ebron | 12.6 | 3.2 | 13 | 19 | 2900 | If you need the cap space |