Here’s hoping you have a relaxing, satisfying, enjoyable...and profitable Thanksgiving. With the latter in mind, if your agenda is to be disciplined and grind out a positive return on investment then regardless of how you fared on Thursday, stay the course. If you had a strong day, stick with your typical bankroll management. If you had a poor day, don’t try to make up for it by risking more than usual. This example seems so obvious, but it really drives home the point. It was relayed at the DFS Players Conference a couple weeks ago. You can have positive return on investment 90 percent of the time you play but if your system is to risk everything each week, every 10th week you’ll be down to nothing. An oversimplification for sure, but it does drive home the need for discipline.
OK, onto the main slate of Week 12. Maybe I’m wrong, but after crunching the wisdom-of-the-crowd numbers, I can’t remember a week where both FanDuel and DraftKings had such sharp pricing. By sharp pricing, I mean the delta between industry’s expectations and the sites’ salaries is as tight as I can recall. There are a few different ways one can account for this. My feeling is to pay a premium for reliability, even more so than normal. This likely requires spending at the top which in turn will result in needing to find some cheap plays.
Looking at both FanDuel’s and DraftKings’ strong cash plays, the two areas that stand out as targets to conserve salary are the second running back and tight end. There’s a bunch of replacement running backs filling in for the plethora of injuries last week. Granted, some of these will be chalk plays just based on the price, but that’s OK in cash games. Especially on DraftKings, there’s a nice selection of tight ends not nicknamed Gronk. These are the main areas I’ll look to save salary so I can fit in the top reliable running backs and wide receivers.
The third spot, if necessary, is quarterback. I usually end up with one of the highest-priced signal callers but this weekend, I’m looking in the mid-range. Some of this is guys like Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are off the board, but it’s also matchup driven. Tom Brady was the top-ranked quarterback using industry expectations but I just can’t pony up the coin for a road tilt in Denver when he’s devoid of so many weapons. If I’m paying full boat, it’s Carson Palmer with the softer opponent and full complement of receivers.
As always, the names listed below are a jumping off point. With the pricing being so sharp, it is even more incumbent to use the array of tools in the DFS Pro Playbook to identify the most reliable plays.
KEY:
ARP | Average Ranking by Position |
StDev | Standard Deviation from ARP |
Rank | Rank from ARP |
DFS Rank | Rank from DFS Salary |
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR FANDUEL CASH GAMES
Quarterback | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Carson Palmer | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 3 | 8100 | More weapons, better matchup than Tom Brady |
Eli Manning | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 8 | 7700 | Prefer cash QB at home but matchup too good to ignore |
Russell Wilson | 8.0 | 1.6 | 7 | 9 | 7600 | Steelers should score enough to keep pressure on |
Blake Bortles | 6.4 | 3.9 | 5 | 12 | 7300 | Risky in cash but sharp GPP play |
Brian Hoyer | 8.4 | 5.9 | 9 | 15 | 7100 | Sweet matchup but one hit away from sidlelines |
Josh McCown | 16.2 | 3.6 | 15.5 | 23.5 | 6300 | Should be nicknamed Duncan from being yanked up and down |
Running Back | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Adrian Peterson | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 9000 | Floor and celing just a little higher than Todd Gurley |
Doug Martin | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3 | 4 | 7500 | Price at the point he needs a TD but should deliver |
Chris Johnson | 10.4 | 2.8 | 9 | 10 | 6800 | Monitor injured knee as CJ2K now needs volume to produce |
T.J. Yeldon | 6.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 12.5 | 6500 | Juicy matchup but limited track record |
Thomas Rawls | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7 | 16.5 | 6300 | He'll be the chalk play assuming Marshawn Lynch is out - sharp fade in GPP |
Javorius Allen | 14.0 | 5.1 | 13 | 16.5 | 6300 | May not be three-down guy but majority is now his |
Spencer Ware | 17.0 | 8.8 | 15 | 20.5 | 6100 | Monitor Charcandrick West but also tough matchup and Knile Davis looms |
Antonio Andrews | 20.0 | 1.7 | 20 | 29 | 5700 | Punt play with low but stable floor |
Shaun Draughn | 23.4 | 3.9 | 23 | 30.5 | 5600 | Could be more of a GPP play since value comes from catches |
Wide Receiver | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
DeAndre Hopkins | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 9400 | Will need to throw all day to keep up with Drew Brees |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 9100 | Rarity with such high a floor and upside |
Allen Robinson | 5.6 | 0.5 | 6 | 7 | 7900 | Would rather pay up but great matchup |
Larry Fitzgerald | 5.0 | 1.9 | 5 | 11 | 7400 | Best play among wideouts |
Amari Cooper | 13.8 | 3.0 | 12 | 18.5 | 6800 | Flip a coin, between Cooper and... |
Michael Crabtree | 14.8 | 3.1 | 14.5 | 22 | 6500 | Crabtree in cash, cheap stack in GPP |
John Brown | 24.4 | 5.3 | 25 | 35 | 5700 | Prefer to pay for Fitz but nice GPP dart |
Stevie Johnson | 21.8 | 3.5 | 20 | 40 | 5500 | Everyone else voted off the island |
Tight End | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Tyler Eifert | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | 6200 | Red Zone monster |
Delanie Walker | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 4 | 6100 | High floor, cash game gold |
Jordan Reed | 4.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 5.5 | 5800 | Health always a concern |
Travis Kelce | 4.4 | 1.8 | 5 | 5.5 | 5800 | Workoad complaints warranted but also dropped a few |
Jacob Tamme | 14.2 | 1.9 | 13 | 17 | 5100 | Should get more than three targets this week |
Kyle Rudolph | 15.4 | 3.1 | 15.5 | 19.5 | 5000 | Favorite punt play and may need to take advantage |
Clive Walford | 22.0 | 2.3 | 20 | 23.5 | 4700 | Only of salary relief absolutely necessary |
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR DRAFTKINGS CASH GAMES
Quarterback | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Carson Palmer | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 3 | 7100 | More weapons, better matchup than Brady |
Eli Manning | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 7 | 6500 | Prefer cash QB at home but matchup too good to ignore |
Russell Wilson | 8.0 | 1.6 | 7 | 10 | 6000 | Steelers should score enough to keep pressure on |
Blake Bortles | 6.4 | 3.9 | 5 | 11 | 5900 | Risky in cash but sharp GPP play |
Brian Hoyer | 8.4 | 5.9 | 9 | 23.5 | 5000 | Sweet matchup but one hit away from sidlelines |
Running Back | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Adrian Peterson | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 7300 | Floor and celing just a little higher than Todd Gurley |
Doug Martin | 5.0 | 2.9 | 3 | 5.5 | 5800 | Price at the point he needs a TD but should deliver |
LeSean McCoy | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4 | 9 | 5300 | One of a handful of three-down backs |
T.J. Yeldon | 6.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 12 | 4800 | Juicy matchup but limited track record |
Chris Johnson | 10.4 | 2.8 | 9 | 15 | 4600 | Monitor injured knee as CJ2K now needs volume to produce |
Javorius Allen | 14.0 | 5.1 | 13 | 15 | 4600 | May not be three-down guy but majority is now his |
Thomas Rawls | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7 | 18 | 4500 | He'll be the chalk play assuming Lynch is out - sharp fade in GPP |
Spencer Ware | 17.0 | 8.8 | 15 | 27.5 | 3800 | Monitor West but also tough matchup and Knile Davis looms |
Antonio Andrews | 20.0 | 1.7 | 20 | 31 | 3700 | Punt play with low but stable floor |
Wide Receiver | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
DeAndre Hopkins | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 9100 | Will need to throw all day to keep up with Brees |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 3.5 | 8700 | Rarity with such high a floor and upside |
Larry Fitzgerald | 5.0 | 1.9 | 5 | 6.5 | 7400 | Best play among wideouts |
Allen Robinson | 5.6 | 0.548 | 6 | 9 | 7300 | Would rather pay up but great matchup |
Brandon Marshall | 9.4 | 1.517 | 8 | 11 | 6800 | Flip a coin, between Marshall and... |
Eric Decker | 14 | 6.124 | 13 | 16.5 | 5800 | Decker in cash, cheap stack in GPP |
Stevie Johnson | 21.8 | 3.493 | 20 | 29.5 | 4500 | Everyone else voted off the island |
Brandon LaFell | 23.4 | 5.273 | 22 | 34.5 | 4300 | Have to play at this price |
Tight End | ARP | StDev | Rank | DFS Rank | Salary | Comment |
Tyler Eifert | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 5800 | Red Zone monster |
Delanie Walker | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 3 | 5400 | High floor, cash game gold |
Jordan Reed | 4.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 4 | 5100 | Health always a concern |
Gary Barnidge | 5.2 | 3.8 | 6 | 6.5 | 4800 | Had early success with McCown at helm |
Travis Kelce | 4.4 | 1.8 | 5 | 8.5 | 4700 | Workoad complaints warranted but also dropped a few |
Jordan Cameron | 18.4 | 2.3 | 18 | 24.5 | 2500 | Such a tease, probably best for GPP |
Clive Walford | 22.0 | 2.3 | 20 | 24.5 | 2500 | Only of salary relief absolutely necessary |