Last we we used some research on strikeout rates to identify players likely to exceed expectations due to fanning less than anticipated. This week we'll focus on players whiffing more than projected.

By means of reminder, the study linked above suggests that it takes 60 plate appearances (PA) for the in-season strike out rate to be predictive, The exact level isn't quantifiable. What the research basically says if a player is strikeout out more or less than originally expected then that trend has a 50 percent chance to continue. Previous to the 60 PA, a player's strikeout rate should be expected to regress to its original baseline. Once a player has eclipsed the 60 PA mark, his baseline is raised or lowered. The baseline is best thought of as the over/under line, the place where there's an equal chance of being on either side of the mark. It's the exact amount that the baseline changes that isn't definite. Though, I have developed a mathematical treatment using weighted averages that is incorporated into the rest-of-season projections used to fuel the site's daily projections but that's a story for another day.

What's important here is the players listed below have a 50 percent chance of continuing to strikeout out more than was originally expected, Obviously, strikeouts are just one statistic. If a player is hitting for more power of making more hard contact the impact of the reduced contact could be mitigated. But the fact remains, one important skill in all of the following player's arsenal has a 50 percent chance to continue on the decline. It's human nature to try and identify which side the player will fall on and often is influenced by some anecdotal reasoning or subjective bias. Over the years, some of my more provocative work has emanated from identifying players I advise to sell (and buy) high based on this process. I have a suspicion I'm about to add to that history with what many will consider a clown recommendation..

BATTING AVERAGE DRAINS

Brett Lawrie (PA 143, 2015 28.7%, 3-year 16.1%, -78.3%)
Edwin Encarnacion (PA 148, 2015 20.9%, 3-year 13.2%, -58.3%)
Erick Aybar (PA 136, 2015 15.4%, 3-year 10.2%, -51%)
Troy Tulowitzki (PA 113, 2015 22.1%, 3-year 14.8%, -49.3%)
Jose Bautista (PA 123, 2015 22%, 3-year 15.2%, -44.7%)
Adam LaRoche (PA 118, 2015 29.7%, 3-year 20.7%, -43.5%)
Omar Infante (PA 110, 2015 15.5%, 3-year 10.8%, -43.5%)
Martin Prado (PA 145, 2015 14.5%, 3-year 10.5%, -38.1%)
Robinson Cano (PA 144, 2015 16.7%, 3-year 12.2%, -36.9%)
Jimmy Rollins (PA 137, 2015 19.7%, 3-year 14.6%, -34.9%)
Colby Rasmus (PA 109, 2015 37.6%, 3-year 28%, -34.3%)
Nick Markakis (PA 146, 2015 15.1%, 3-year 11.2%, -34.8%)
Asdrubal Cabrera (PA 135, 2015 23.7%, 3-year 17.9%, -32.4%)
Shin-Soo Choo (PA 123, 2015 28.5%, 3-year 21.5%, -32.6%)
Victor Martinez (PA 125, 2015 10.4%, 3-year 7.9%, -31.6%)
Michael Cuddyer (PA 127, 2015 23.6%, 3-year 18.3%, -29%)

Other than the ridiculous increase for Brett Lawrie, the sticks-out-like-a-sore-thumb observation is both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are in the top five with respect to increased whiffs. Sure, they'll still hit for power, but the increased strikeouts could temper big innings, which can actually be applicable to stacks in DFS. If there's ever a coin-flip decision between two stacks one of which is the Blue Jays, fading them based on the increased strikeouts, especially on sites that penalize for punchouts may be the play.

Even though the difference is slight because his baseline was so low, I'm a little concerned with Robinson Cano. He's not going to hit for power so he needs every point of batting average he can muster.

Someone I'd definitely look to sell high now that he's showing signs of life is Shin-Soo Choo. For the longest time he was a personal favorite so it pained me to have him on my avoid list in the spring. Even when he was productive, he fanned an excessive amount but it was masked by a high batting average on balls in play that he sustained for several seasons. Now that he's older and has lost a step or two, I was worried his BABIP would fall and now that his already high strikeouts are on the rise, he's definitely a sell for me.

YOU'RE NOT HELPING

Yadier Molina (PA 118, 2015 13.6%, 3-year 10.7%, -27.1%)
Chris Davis (PA 128, 2015 39.1%, 3-year 30.7%, -27.4%)
Carlos Beltran (PA 121, 2015 22.3%, 3-year 17.6%, -26.7%)
Pablo Sandoval (PA 136, 2015 16.9%, 3-year 13.4%, -26.1%)
Charlie Blackmon (PA 126, 2015 19.8%, 3-year 15.8%, -25.3%)
J.D. Martinez (PA 135, 2015 31.1%, 3-year 24.7%, -25.9%)
Matt Holliday (PA 133, 2015 20.3%, 3-year 16.2%, -25.3%)
Aramis Ramirez (PA 92, 2015 17.4%, 3-year 14%, -24.3%)
Casey McGehee (PA 93, 2015 20.4%, 3-year 16.5%, -23.6%)
David Ortiz (PA 132, 2015 18.2%, 3-year 14.8%, -23%)

At first blush there's a lot of veterans here that could be struggling as a result of injury or just the cumulative effect of various ailments. Examples are Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Aramis Ramirez.

If you're still hoping for a bounce back from Chris Davis, perhaps it's time to buy a K.

Red Sox fans can't be thrilled to see Kung Fu Panda and Big Papi on this list.

Remember last season when the narrative was J.D. Martinez was a brand new player with a completely revamped swing? That was awesome. Things just aren't that easy. Sure, there were some improvements but some give-back should also have been expected. I promise that later this season someone will emerge with tales of a new approach. Don't get fooled next season.

MAYBE A LITTLE BIT CONCERNED

Alexei Ramirez (PA 121, 2015 14%, 3-year 11.6%, -20.7%)
Bryce Harper (PA 151, 2015 25.8%, 3-year 21.4%, -20.6%)
Starlin Castro (PA 140, 2015 20%, 3-year 16.7%, -19.8%)
Chase Utley (PA 120, 2015 15.8%, 3-year 13.3%, -18.8%)
Adeiny Hechavarria (PA 137, 2015 19.7%, 3-year 16.6%, -18.7%)
Giancarlo Stanton (PA 148, 2015 32.4%, 3-year 27.6%, -17.4%)
Dustin Pedroia (PA 151, 2015 12.6%, 3-year 10.7%, -17.8%)
Carlos Ruiz (PA 97, 2015 14.4%, 3-year 12.3%, -17.1%)

Confession time: when I first ran the numbers for last week's column, Bryce Harper was in the top group at a 32 percent decline. Now that he's in the bottom group I can easily rationalize away any concern but that's not trusting the process and I'm all about the process. The process says there's a 50/50 chance Harper ends the season with a strikeout rate worse than we anticipated in the spring. For all his goodness, he still has a flaw. Interestingly, Mike Trout suffered through the same paradox last season. He was still productive but he could have been even better with a lower whiff rate. Something both have in common is they're still barely into their careers so perhaps their baseline is still in flux. With all this said, the process says you are likely to feel better about Harper's rest-of-season than I do. I don't have any shares of Harper so I unfortunately can't put my money where my mouth is but if I did own Bryce, I'd be looking to sell high. There, I said it. When this power surge abates, and it will, the extra strikeouts will no longer be masked. I'll even go as far as to say that I prefer Anthony Rizzo over Harper for the remainder of the season. This is a heads-up comparison of someone favored by the process and someone the process identifies as a concern.

Similarly, I have concerns with Giancarlo Stanton even though he barely made the list. This is where the bias kicks in. I can suggest selling Stanton or fading him in DFS since his current pace isn't other-worldly with minimal pushback as opposed to being eviscerated by saying anything remotely derogatory about Harper.

We'll check back on this, and last week's lists a few times throughout the season in an effort to hold the process accountable. We'll track Harper versus Rizzo.