Hey gang, I’m starting up a new league, who wants in? Here are the rules. We’ll do it National League only. If there’s enough interest we can do a second league with American League only. It will be a 12-team auction using standard 5x5 scoring except we won’t count runs for hitters and strikeouts for pitchers. There’s no reserve list and no free agents. The only way you can replace a player is if he’s put on the disabled list or sent down to the minors. When that player returns to the Majors you have to decide if you want to keep the returning player or the player you picked up to replace him, they’re tied together and you can only keep one.
Those of you of a certain age recognize these as old-school rules. Yup kids, the above are the actual rules for the initial incarnation of rotisserie baseball. This is how we played in the pre-Internet dark ages when the primary source of information was your local sportscast, Baseball Weekly, the notes in USA Today, This Week in Baseball (TWIB notes) and for those lucky enough to have access, George Michaels’ Sports Machine, ESPN and Peter Gammons column from the Sunday Boston Globe.
Before my Twitter mentions get lit up, I’m really not starting these leagues (sorry). I just wanted to set things up for what follows.
The key to winning years ago was combining being incredibly risk averse with superior knowledge of who’s playing. Without the ability to replace slumping hitters or struggling pitchers, you couldn’t take the chance on players lacking reliability or durability, especially pitchers. The best approach to hitting was stars and scrubs, spending top dollar on the consistent studs then back-filling using your superior knowledge of the player pool so you didn’t actually have scrubs but players your competitors didn’t realize would be playing so much or so well.
But then the landscape changed. The Internet leveled the playing field with respect to player knowledge. A series of rules changed altered the temperament of the original rules, each alteration adding a safety net, allowing for the introduction of more and more risk.
The first parachute was using free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) to replace an underperforming player. The caveat was you were forced to release the player and not stash him on reserve. Of course, it wasn’t too long before reserve lists were added, allowing free movement between reserve and the active roster once a week. Leagues shifted from single league auctions to mixed leagues drafts. A major change that in concert with the other tweaks that resulted in eliminating a ton of pitching risk was switching from 4x4 scoring to 5x5. And finally, many leagues allowed daily and not weekly moves.
Each of these changes resulted in the ability to loosen risk profile. Those whose first venture into the hobby came in the past ten years or so had no clue what it was like previously. They learned playing with their hair down, so to speak while the rest of us curmudgeons are still extoling the virtues of patience. Avoiding risk was in our DNA.
Then came DFS. And things will never be the same. Assuming no legal issues or major companies flaking, this is a good thing, but I digress. DFS is going to make me a better traditional fantasy player because it has taught me to embrace risk as well as not being afraid to lose.
Please keep in mind what I wrote about last week, everything is contextual. Nearly all of my traditional leagues are win or go home. I play mostly high stakes and industry leagues. While some of the high stakes leagues are stand-alone where you need to beat 11 or 14 others, the bulk crown (and pay) an overall champion requiring being the top dog of hundreds, if not thousands of entrants. No one cares who finishes second in Tout Wars, LABR or the FSTA league. Heck, not many care who finishes first!
For years I’ve been saying I need to introduce more risk into my game play and for years I’ve been finishing in the upper third, but rarely winning. I've won the NFBC NL only auction three times, but that’s a stand-alone league. It’s time I took down Tout Wars or made some noise in the NFBC Main Event. DFS is going to help me get there.
There’s some irony in the safety net metaphor. Drafting risk averse is a safety net unto itself. If you don’t win, no one is going to point to a specific player or strategy that was your undoing. You drafted fine but got hit with some injuries or some unexpected off-years. It’s not your fault. Drafting safe is the ultimate parachute.
DFS has taught me there’s a time for playing it safe and sometimes you gotta say “What the …..” And while I may prefer the prize to be Rebecca De Mornay circa 1983, a six-figure takedown wouldn’t be so bad. Heck, I’d even settle for my ugly mug to be in the champion’s rotation on the Tout Wars web site.
The number one thing DFS has taught me is not to be afraid to lose. It’s not only OK, but necessary to embrace risk. For most others, it’s not even embracing risk; it’s just playing the game the same way they’ve been playing all along.
Obviously, I’m not going to abandon salient player analysis. I’m not throwing BABIP out with the bath water. I’m not tossing HR/FB to the wind. But instead of drafting or paying for the 50th percentile expectation, I’ll pick and choose where the 90th percentile is the proper fit. I’m not talking about long shots or dart throws; I still want a plausible path for each player to yield a positive return on my investment.
Starting now, I’m going to be a better traditional fantasy player. Winning is risky business and I wouldn’t be able to do it without lessons learned from DFS.