Hey there, long time no cyber-see! My writing respite is over and it’s time to get back to pontificating. Look for this column every Tuesday and Thursday through opening day.

I’ll be sharing my insights on game theory, draft strategy and auction mechanics. I’ve already completed over a dozen drafts and auctions, most of which are National Fantasy Baseball Championship style. I’ve been producing and updating player projections since November 15. I challenge you to find another person in the industry that has a better handle on the 2015 inventory than yours truly.

Today’s topic is context. For the next couple of months you’re going to hear and read a ton of advice. A great deal of this will include the words “always” and “never”. If you take away just one message from this discussion let it be

ALWAYS REMEMBER, NEVER FORGET. THERE’S NO SUCH THING AS ALWAYS AND NEVER.

Context is everything. Information isn’t one-size-fits-all. Leagues come in all different shapes and sizes with all sorts of rules permutations. What works best in a 10-team mixed draft with one catcher and three outfielders may not be applicable to a 12-team NL-only auction.

The person disseminating the advice probably has a format for which they are most familiar. There’s a very good chance their reasoning is rooted from that format. It’s human nature. As it is commonly used, the phrase “consider the source” has a negative connotation. When I say consider the source, the intent is for you to think about who is offering the advice and use your discretion when applying it to your specific situation. Often, this entails looking past the surface and understanding the reasoning for the advice. The reason is often more relevant than the conclusion as it can be applied to similar scenarios.

Here’s an example. Perhaps the topic is closers and several unsettled bullpens are discussed. There’s a good chance the wrap-up will be this sort of uncertainty means you can ALWAYS wait on drafting your closers, perhaps even ignoring them totally in your draft, looking to acquire saves in-season.

I’m willing to bet this source plays in mostly 10 and 12 team mixed leagues with trading, and perhaps daily transactions. But what if you play in a 15-team mixed draft and hold league with no trading and no in-season pickups? Sure, you can speculate late, but if you want to be sure to compete in the category, you better invest in a couple of the more stable options earlier.

Another factor usually ignored when it comes to drafting closers in a standard rotisserie league is they’re part of a fantasy staff that also scores ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. While the impact of their ancillary contributions are league and format dependent, closers influence more than just saves. As such, the quality of closer you employ needs to be tied in with the quality of your starting pitching. If you plan on avoiding aces and filling out your starters with lower tier options with upside, using a lesser closer adds further risk to already perilous ratios. In other words, where to draft saves isn’t planned in a vacuum, it’s done in concert with your starters to end up with a staff of a certain potential.

 Another example is NEVER make a trade unless you acquire the best player. Sorry, but this is myopic. The goal is to have a better roster after the deal than before. We’re in pre-season mode so let’s talk about this with respect to keepers. You want to construct a keeper list to maximize the potential of your roster when it’s complete. Maybe you have Kolten Wong on your farm roster and didn’t activate him last season to save a year of eligibility. Last spring you took a chance on Jose Altuve and he’s now a cheap keeper. You don’t like the third base pool at all but you don’t have anyone to keep at the hot corner. You’re offered Josh Donaldson for Altuve. On paper, most would rank Altuve higher. But you can activate Wong and not cost you any draft-day assets other than a dirt cheap second baseman that you’ll reserve or release. Or maybe you take a flier on Francisco Lindor or Jose Peraza since you don’t care that they won’t be in the Majors on opening day. The point is, your team with Wong and Donaldson is probably better than Altuve and a third baseman. There are scenarios where acquiring the lesser player helps your team more.

Let’s use Altuve again. There are some that decree NEVER draft a steals specialist early. But what if you’ve been playing in your league for several seasons and know the tendencies of your competitors and power hitters with a low batting average always slide in your draft. Several years ago, pairing Ichiro Suzuki with Adam Dunn left you with a pair of .280-20-90-90-20 guys for far less than it would have cost to take two players with that stat line. Today you can look to pair up Altuve with Chris Davis or Chris Carter and accomplish the same thing. The key is knowing the dynamic of your league – something the person offering the advice has no way of knowing.

I think you get the point – context is everything. Think of things in terms of your league and format. Play in a way to emphasize strength and mask weakness. Sometimes this means shunning conventional wisdom. You know, the kind that inevitably includes either ALWAYS or NEVER.