When we last cyber-talked, I outlined a conundrum that haunts me every week and promised I’d offer a solution. What follows is the abridged manner that I’m planning to use to build my NFL DFS lineups. The process is based on:

  • I can only play a limited number of tournament and cash game every week. Part of this is financial and part is logistical.
  • After spending a week doing my own research and incorporating the advice of the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook and Ideal lineups, there are still more possible combinations than I can reasonably play in a given weekend.
  • I freaking hate to lose. It’s not the money. It’s knowing there were others better than me and that’s embarrassing considering it’s my job to offer advice in this discipline and I sure as shizzle better be able to follow my own advice successfully.

As suggested last time, the answer most will offer is to play more games using diversified lineups. But, as I allude to above, that’s not an option for me. As such, I need to figure out a means to be more efficient with the lineups I do play. What follows is less about football and more about logic to generate better efficiency. The theory is following this process will naturally weed out candidates you’ve identified as viable targets. Building multiple lineups will still enable those filtered out to populate other squads. Remember, we’re not building just one squad but we’re not putting together dozens either.

STEP ONE: QUARTERBACK

Regardless of the means you prefer to choose your quarterback, deciding on the specific signal caller to anchor your team is the initial building block. Everything that ensues will be connected to either that quarterback’s team or the opposition. The notion you need to keep front and center is if this lineup is going to be successful, the quarterback has to come through. Every other position is going to be selected under the mindset that the quarterback exceeds expectations. This is true even in cash games, which is probably contradictory to conventional wisdom that preaches safety in cash games. The way to deal with it is choosing a safe QB for your cash games and follow the same protocol opting for safe players that meet the following criteria.

STEP TWO: WIDE RECEIVER

Granted, there are multiple receiver spots, but at least one of them should be allocated to a wide out from the same team as your quarterback. If your QB is to go off, someone has to catch the ball, right? And when he does, if the QB exceeds expectations, so should at least one of his wide receivers. When there are a couple of possibilities, like say Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb on Green Bay or Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on Chicago, you can use matchup analysis or go with the safer choice in cash and higher ceiling option in GPP. Using two top receivers from the same team increases the chance you get one right but decreases the return on investment for the other. That said, taking a flier on the third wide out, say the Packers’ Davante Adams, along with Nelson or Cobb is a viable GPP play if Aaron Rodgers is your QB.

If you play on Draft Day or Fantasy Aces where two quarterbacks are employed, pair each with an appropriate pass-catching teammate.

If you expect the game to be high-scoring for both sides, strongly consider using a WR from the opposing team assuming he meets the initial criteria of being a viable play based on your research or is included in the choices from the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook.

STEP THREE: RUNNING BACK

With a rare few exceptions, avoid pairing a running with your quarterback. There are only so many touchdowns to go around and if you’re QB is tossing them to your WR, that doesn’t leave many for your running back. Sure, he could score and have a decent day, but you’re looking for more and the examples of a QB and RB both blowing up from the same team pale in comparison to marrying a QB and WR. The exceptions must play a significant role in the passing game on a weekly basis. Le'Veon Bell comes to mind as the best example. Someone like Matt Forte is hurt by the aforementioned Marshall and Jeffery. This isn’t to say Forte is a weak DFS play, just not to use him in conjunction with Jay Cutler. DeMarco Murray is a possibility since the Dallas Cowboys don’t have a pair of WR the caliber of Green Bay and Chicago so under the right circumstances, using Tony Romo, Murray and either Dez Bryant or Terrance Williams could work.

The remaining open running back (or flex) spots can be used for the bargain-of-the-day or another candidate identified as a strong choice. The only constraint is unless the back is an integral part of his team’s passing attack, using a runner from the team playing your quarterback is ill advised. Keep in mind this is all based on your quarterback lighting it up which should lead to the opposition playing in catch-up mode which usually entails throwing the ball.

STEP FOUR: TIGHT END

Unless the player is named Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, it’s best not to pair up your tight end and quarterback in tournament play. You’ve already elected a wide receiver based on your QB. Again, you need to build the squad as if certain things will happen and the chances that team’s tight end goes nuts is limited. In cash games it’s defensible so long as the player is a consistent contributor and priced right.

If your quarterback’s team has a staunch defense, the opposing team’s tight end could be an option if he’s used as an outlet receiver. All DFS sites are PPR so these dump offs add up. You’re not likely to have your player go crazy, but if you’re going to fade the return on investment somewhere, tight end is the best option of the skill positions.

STEP FIVE: DEFENSE

Hopefully it goes without saying avoiding the defense playing your quarterback is obligatory. Similarly, it’s best not to use the defense playing any of your skill players.

What could be less obvious is best fading the defense of any of your skill players. Assuming you’re looking for a lucky pick-six or fumble or kick return, every touchdown your D/ST scores takes away from the chances for that team’s offense to score. Not only does the defensive or special teams TD deprive the offense of a series, it increases the chance the squad calls off the dogs and runs the ball to control the clock. Or perhaps settles for a field goal where they would have otherwise gone for it on fourth down en route to a touchdown.

STEP SIX: KICKER

While the dictum never to pay for a kicker overrides everything, it’s best to avoid the kicker from your quarterback’s team if you expect a blowout. If however, you expect a high-scoring game, using the QB’s kicker is viable since kicking field goals are still in play. Practically speaking, it’s rare that a cheap kicker is paired with a high-scoring quarterback but sometimes if you’re taking a chance on a lesser ranked QB, it could happen.

The kicker on the team opposing your QB should be avoided in all instances. This scenario is much more prevalent.

That’s it, the entire process. Especially if you’re on a site that uses a flex you may still have some open spots but you will needs some wiggle room to make the above possible in terms of keeping under the cap. In fact, the only contradiction to one of the above procedures is to make it work salary-wise. Otherwise it’s best to stick to the plan as this optimizes your chance to hit it big on as many lineup spots as possible.

Good luck this week – see you on the leaderboard!