It's no secret that you need a little luck to take down a tournament and according to my rankings, this week it will also take Andrew Luck. But as a card-carrying member of Patriot's Nation, you might say I'm feeling a little down on my luck. I'll figure something out; there's more fish in the sea...or perhaps in the River(s).
More so than ever, this looks like a week you're going to want to pay for a top QB in cash games. No messing around or getting cute, Pony up for a stud and penny-pinch elsewhere.
Here's my admittedly flawed objective ranks versus the consensus of the industry as well as the player's rank on the various DFS sites:
Draft | Draft | Fantasy | |||
INDUSTRY | FanDuel | Kings | Day | Aces | |
Andrew Luck | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Drew Brees | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Philip Rivers | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Tom Brady | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Ben Roethlisberger | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Jay Cutler | 12 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
Cam Newton | 13 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
Matthew Stafford | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Matt Ryan | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Mark Sanchez | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
Russell Wilson | 15 | 14 | 21 | 14 | 18 |
Eli Manning | 16 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
Robert Griffin | 11 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
Alex Smith | 22 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
Brian Hoyer | 20 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 14 |
Shaun Hill | 26 | 19 | 15 | 19 | 19 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 18 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 20 |
Drew Stanton | 21 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 21 |
Derek Carr | 23 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 23 |
Josh McCown | 17 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 24 |
Andy Dalton | 19 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 25 |
Zach Mettenberger | 25 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 22 |
Ryan Mallett | 24 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
I have Luck ranked as the top choice across the board. The industry still really likes him but they are likely knocking him down a peg or two based on the Belichick factor. As mentioned, my system is objective and one of the flaws is the lack of the human touch. That said, I don't HAVE to follow the rankings chalk if I feel there's a factor not accounted for in the adjustments. I'm still undecided though I suspect I'll have some exposure to Luck on Sunday night.
Among the elite, I have Philip Rivers a couple of notches higher than my brethren, The system is not scared off by Rivers' pre-bye debacle versus the Miami Dolphins. All it sees is a guy with the tenth best yards per game mark among the 26 remaining options enjoying a home match-up facing a league-average pass defense. Overall, the Chargers have faced defenses checking in a bit better than league-average which helps even more. There's a good chance Rivers anchors a team or two for me this weekend. Though, he doesn't have the explosive upside of an Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers so I'll like deploy Rivers on Draft Day and Fantasy Aces where two signal callers are needed, pairing him up with a stud.
Another player with a significant difference in expectation is Jay Cutler. Perhaps it's recency bias or perhaps it's salient analysis, but my colleagues don't want anything to do with the Bears' field general this week. He's one spot higher than Rivers with respect to average yards per game though Chicago has faced the composite sixth stingiest defenses against the pass. Their opponent this week is the Minnesota Vikings, one of the best units defending the pass which is likely the reason for the depressed ranking. Though let's be honest, there's some recency bias in there as well. This game is in Soldier Field and you just know Cutler would like to send a message to his home crowd and with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte at his disposal, Cutler has the profile of a great GPP play.
So here's my game plan. Aaron Rodgers will anchor most of my cash games, paired with Rivers on two-QB sites. My GPP guys will be Luck and Cutler.
Good luck this weekend!