Earlier in the week, a method to help pinpoint the top-ten quarterbacks was introduced. Today that system will be put to the test by ranking the signal-callers according to the identified parameters.

However, nothing is as easy as it appears (especially with me as I tend to think out loud before settling on a system I favor). I had a few readers question the validity of the system, basically asking why it is better than simply using the points their team was predicted to score? The implication being factors such as home field advantage, turf, etc all feed into the projected points so we're in essence double dipping in a few aspects.

My answer is I don't know if it's any better. For a moment I thought I may have wasted your time and mine. But then I decided we're good; there wasn't any waste of time. We're trying to predict what will happen based on what has happened. As good as Vegas is, they're not going to be perfectly correct. The system identified some factors that were consistent with the top options each week. So including them in the ranking process may help identify the options that are not highlighted strictly by projected team points.

So here's what we're going to do. Four different ranking processes will be compared:

  • The system introduced earlier in the week
  • Projected points scored
  • Consensus writer rankings
  • My personal rankings

This is admittedly empirical but it is based on the results of the study. Points will be assigned to each quarterback as follows:

  • 1 point for each point their team is projected to score over 20
  • 2 points if home
  • 4 points if favored
  • 1 point if the game is on turf
  • 1 point if the game is in a dome

Projected points will be computed using the Vegas over/under and point spread. The consensus writer rankings are taken from several sources of rankings for QB in traditional fantasy leagues. My personal rankings are based on my own research. Note the signal callers from the Thursday tilt and the early Sunday game are omitted since the purpose is to find the best plays for the most densely populated contests this week and those games will be excluded.

RANKSYSTEMPOINTSWRITERSPERSONAL
1Tony RomoTony RomoAaron RodgersTony Romo
2Aaron RodgersAaron RodgersAndrew LuckAaron Rodgers
3Tom BradyTom BradyDrew BreesTom Brady
4Alex SmithDrew BreesRussell WilsonAlex Smith
5Brian HoyerAndrew LuckTom BradyAndrew Luck
6Drew BreesAlex SmithTony RomoDrew Brees
7Andrew LuckRussell WilsonNick FolesRyan Tannehill
8Nick FolesBrian HoyerCam NewtonRussell Wilson
9Russell WilsonNick FolesJay CutlerJoe Flacco
10Joe FlaccoRyan TannehillCarson PalmerCarson Palmer

Each week I'll work up similar rankings and we'll track which set best correlates to the actual results.

It's important to point out the above are based solely on fantasy points and not cost. Looking at my list, this could make Ryan Tannehill my choice in tournaments. The reason I have Tony Romo listed at the top is more strategic as Aaron Rodgers will be a popular choice so while it takes some stones, I may fade him in some contests. I'll have some exposure in cash games but I'll probably own more shares of the Cowboy.

While this won't be the sole focus of the Friday column, I plan on presenting a similar table each week with the results from the past week.

Good luck this weekend - I hope to see you with me on the leaderboards.