As someone in the player projection business this is difficult to admit, but as good as I feel my work is, studies show group-source projections are better than any individual set. This discussion will explain a means to incorporate group-think into your DFS strategy.

The process is better considered a filter to identify possible candidates than a stand-alone means to populate your lineup. It entails comparing how the industry ranks players versus their salary on the various DFS sites. If consensus rank is better than the salary rank, the player offers a potential positive return on investment. Similarly, if the consensus rank is worse than the salary rank, this player should be avoided on that site.

There are some significant shortcomings to the procedure, but again, it’s a just a means of putting some players on your radar, worthy of further analysis. For instance, the projections used to generate the consensus rank all assume different traditional fantasy football scoring systems and roster construction. Further, the scoring systems of the different DFS sites are also unique. This is where the research comes in. The results identify outliers; it’s up to you to decide if the outcome is actionable.

Here’s an outline of the process.

  1. Gather three or four sets of weekly rankings you trust.
  2. Determine the average rank for each player and order your final list accordingly.
  3. Extract the salaries from the various DFS sites (available on Fantasy Alarm) and order the players accordingly.
  4. Identify the players where there’s a bigger difference between the industry consensus rank and the DFS rank.
  5. Evaluate the player to decide if he’s indeed worthy of a roster spot.

If a picture is worth 1000 words, perhaps a table is worth 250 or so. Here’s my comparison table for quarterbacks in Week 3. Note this can be done across all the positions.

 RANKDKFDDDFADKFDDDFA
Drew Brees1341289009100164007550
Aaron Rodgers2122392009800162507500
Matthew Stafford3454688009000159506900
Andrew Luck4135492009500156007200
Nick Foles5687585008400145007100
Peyton Manning6412188009900162507700
Jay Cutler77116981008100154006800
Cam Newton88612874008600127006850
Tom Brady9111112969008100127006800
Tony Romo101615141465007600126006650
Russell Wilson1112981168008300136006750
Philip Rivers12101010671008200132006900
Kirk Cousins13921161573006800120506400
Andy Dalton141413111166007900129506750
Colin Kaepernick1514791366008500132506700
Ryan Tannehill161923181863006500117506200
Joe Flacco171817201564007200115506400
Geno Smith182216212361007400107005950
Ben Roethlisberger191214171568007700119006400
Alex Smith201919152063007000121506000
EJ Manuel212322212658006700107005750
Ryan Fitzpatrick223024232033006400104006000
Matt Cassel23262628255400620091005800
Jake Locker242518191955007100116006100
Brian Hoyer25283026245200580099505900
Chad Henne26232627265800620093505750
Eli Manning271920252063006900102006000
Drew Stanton28292930295000590075005500
Derek Carr291628242865006000102505650
Austin Davis30262429305400640087005400
  • RANK – consensus industry rank
  • DK – Draft Kings
  • FD – FanDuel
  • DD – Draft Day
  • FA – Fantasy Aces

Here’s how the data can be utilized.

The industry expects Peyton Manning to generate fewer points than normal while the DFS sites still have him priced among the leaders. This could be a good week to fade the future Hall-of-Famer. 

Drew Brees appears to be the best option for cash games if your philosophy is to lock in an upper tier quarterback and build around him.

Tony Romo looks like he could be a decent bang-for-the-buck option, especially on sites that use two signal-callers in their starting lineup.

Kirk Cousins is an intriguing play for tournaments on Fanduel where the ranking difference is rather large. However, fading Cousins on Draft Kings could be a sage move.

Ben Roethlisberger is not a smart option for those looking for some value from the lower tier. The industry has Big Ben considerable lower than his salary across all sites.

Ryan Tannehill could be a sneaky tournament play on Fanduel. Ryan Fitzpatrick could offer a nice return on investment on Draft Kings, but not so much elsewhere. Matt Cassell could be a bang-for-the-buck guy on Draft Day.

Again, the process isn’t perfect but there are benefits. We’ll wrap up the discussion with a list of disadvantages and advantages for the procedure.

DISADVANTAGES

  • Requires some excel acumen or some patience to produce the ranks. It’s not hard, just a bit tedious. A perfect time to do it is during the Thursday night game. Then again, this is coming from a person that watches the game sitting at his desk in his office because there’s only two places to sit in his apartment and the other requires putting the seat down. Though, this time tomorrow I could be sitting in my brand-new recliner purchased at the going-out-of-business sale from my local K-mart. So, do you still want to be a fantasy writer?
  • Uses industry rankings based on different parameters between sources
  • Different DFS sites use different scoring systems which may not coincide with the already skewed industry ranks

ADVANTAGES

  • Gives self-deprecating, introverted geeks something to do while wallowing in self-pity as they stay in yet another evening, watching a football game in solitude.
  • Incorporates the proven power of group-think to your analysis, helping to flesh out subjective bias.
  • Opens your eyes to candidates you may not have considered.
  • Insures no potential strong play slips through the cracks.

Good luck this weekend.