We may as well address the elephant in the room right away so we can get things out into the open and let him go back to the wild where he belongs. I’m going to spend exactly one column detailing what not to do when setting a daily lineup so we can then spend the rest of the time talking about what to do.

Here are the first three rules I follow when it comes to building a daily fantasy baseball lineup:.

  1. DO NOT base decisions on batter versus pitcher history
  2. DO NOT base decisions on hot streaks
  3. If at any time I consider relying on a hitter’s history against a pitcher, see #1. If at any time I am tempted to use a player because he’s on a hot streak, see #2.

That’s it, that’s my doctrine. Pretty simple when you think about it.

Let’s not be naïve; I’ll spare you the coy rhetoric.

I’m not alone with respect to the above. Some analysts come right out and preach those words. Others pussyfoot around them while still more either completely ignore them or haven’t done their homework sufficiently to know the conundrum even exists.

The bottom line is batter versus pitcher history and recent player performance are not predictive of future performance. If neither are predictive of future performance, then neither are actionable when it comes to selecting players for a daily lineup.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

As I mentioned previously, I was a scientist in a previous life. As such, I have carried over scientific principles to my new life as a fantasy baseball analyst.

I strongly suggest that if you plan on making money playing daily fantasy that you conduct your own due diligence. I promise you will find a bevy of research corroborating the above.

Perhaps the definitive source is The Book: Playing the Percentages by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin. Contained within is a chapter devoted to batter versus pitcher match-ups. While you’ll need the book itself to learn first-hand, after conducting a search with your favorite Internet search engine, you’ll no doubt uncover several citations that clearly reveal The Book does not put batter versus pitcher history in a favorable light. The reasons being the sample size is either too small or the data is too old to carry any significance.

Another name to search is SABR President Vince Gennaro.  Mr. Gennaro is conducting research entitled, "Analyzing Batter Performance Against Pitcher Clusters”. I have seen his lecture twice in person. Here’s a link to a You-Tube video. Please feel free to make up your own mind. In brief, in lieu of focusing on a singular hitter versus pitcher match-up, Mr. Gennaro lumps pitchers of like traits together and is investigating the performance against the cluster. This way, the sample is both increased in size and consists of more recent data. Mr. Gennaro’s objective is to provide some MLB managers with some information to aid in lineup construction and pinch hitting viability. While it may be not be as noble, this research is incredibly appealing to the daily gamer.

For a similar treatment, check out the recent posting by Jeff Zimmerman on Fangraphs.

The Book also has a chapter on the non-predictive nature of streaks. The Internet is full of corroborating studies.

It’s your nickel. They’re your lineups. Do what you want. You have the likes of Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver on your side. I have some of the greatest sabermetric minds on mine.

Something to really think about that may aid in trusting the research is the operative phrase is non-predictive. Could there be a hitter that indeed produces at an elevated level against a specific pitcher? Probably, actually I’d venture to say there is. But again, we’re talking about non-predictive. That is, there’s no way to definitely distinguish such a hitter from one whose success is purely random.

Again, your nickel, your team. You may think you can tell them apart. And I’d be lying if I said my mind didn’t occasionally wander in that direction. But when it does…

See #1.

And when I find myself considering a player that had a great game the previous day…

See #2.

It’s your nickel. They’re your lineups. Do what you want.