Happy Mother's Day!! I'm glad (most of) you were born — to read my articles, of course. Motherhood is a fitting metaphor for our purposes today: the Mets have given birth to yet another rookie. And, you'll never guess... it's a boy! His name is Noah Syndergaard, but you can call him Thor. He and his Mjolnir (or hammer) will make their major league debut early next week, and, thusly, this week's Farm Report will be dedicated to him: his nasty assortment of pitches, shortcomings and, yes, even his hitting prowess. 

Thor was born in Asgard (...wait...) to the god Odin (no, not really). Subsequently, his father sent him to earth to inhabit the body of a large towheaded child named Noah... in Mansfield, TX. The BIG righty (6-foot-6, 240-lbs) was later drafted out of high school in 2010 by the Blue Jays in the supplemental first round (38th overall), and, after a strong Midwest League showing in 2012 (103 2/3 innings, 2.60 ERA (2.21 FIP), 122-31 SO-BB), his name became a fixture on the top-half of industry prospect lists. That offseason he was flipped to the Mets, along with Catcher Travis d'Arnaud, for R.A. Dickey. In 2013, he split time between the Florida State (Advanced A) and the Eastern Legaues (Double A). Overall, it was a success: he totaled a 3.06 ERA (2.89 FIP) over 117 2/3 innings, striking out more than a batter per inning. Syndergaard was ticketed for Triple-A Las Vegas in 2014 (now universally regarded as one of the minor leagues most promising pitchers), and a midsummer call-up was anticipated. The 2014 season, however, didn't go as planned: he suffered a "pronator flexor strain" in his pitching elbow in May (whispers of a potential Tommy John Surgery becoming audible) and, when he returned, didn't look like the same pitcher from previous years. He suffered (near) across-the-board career lows, highlighted (or lowlighted) by a turgid 4.60 ERA in 133 innings. His strikeout rate was mostly intact (9.8 K/9), though, and his 3.18 FIP, 3.21 SIERA and PCL-high .382 BABIP against suggest he was more unlucky than bad. Still, an ERA on the wrong side of four is never nice to see for a top prospect, and, heading into 2015, his stock was mostly inert. It also didn't help that Syndergaard suffered another forearm injury in Spring Training, which caused him to miss his first start in Las Vegas.

As I wrote about before, Syndergaard's first two starts weren't overly impressive. However, his final three Triple-A starts have been masterful. In his last 22 innings, he's allowed just one run on 11 hits and two walks, striking out 27 hitters. In fact, per Minor League Centralhis average game score in those three starts was an astounding 77

Now, in the wake of Dillon Gee's groin injury, Thor will get his chance to show what he can do at the major level, and, if the results are there, he could presumably stay in the rotation for the rest of the season. Most of the feeds for Syndergaard's starts have been subpar, but I was able to extract some footage from his last start in Albuquerque, NM (Rockies). Let's see what he's working with:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Syndergaard's arsenal hinges around a monster, grade-80 fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper nineties. The pitch above (left) is a 96 mph heater he lasers into the catcher's mit. It doesn't have a ton of movement, but the combination of his height, arm angle and extreme velocity make it extremely difficult to hit. In fact, his greatest strength can often be his greatest weakness. While Syndergaard throws a tremendous amount of strikes, especially for a pitcher his age, he has a tendency to fall in love his fastball and leave it up in zone or in the middle of the plate. Take, for instance, the double he allowed on the fastball below. It's right down the middle, and a number of major league hitters would likely deposit this pitch in the cheap seats.

To have success on the major league level, Syndergaard is going to have to work the corners of the strikezone and use the tough angles he creates to his advantage by pitching either to the bottom or top of the zone, rather than the middle (pretty obvious, right?). It's obviously easier said than done, but if there's any apprehension about Thor as a fantasy prospect it's that he could have games where he gets hit around quite a bit.

Thor's hammer, his breaking ball, is his primary strikeout weapon. Above (left), you can see two of the strikeouts he tallied against the Isotopes on Thursday. The breaker wasn't as sharp as I've seen it, and it's very important to keep in mind that Albuquerque is 5,302 feet of elevation (on par with Denver, the Mile High City). You scientists will know that thinner air imposes less friction on moving objects, meaning breaking balls lose considerable break at elevation. This wasn't a great day for hammer watching.

An underrated aspect of Syndergaard's game is his ability to throw a better-than-average changeup. In the graphic above, you can see it has nice sink and fade. He can reportedly throw it for strikes too. It keeps hitters from timing his humongous fastball and will crucial to having success against lefties at the big-league level. If we're being nitpicky: he's "struggled" more against left-handed hitters (issuing seven of his eight walks to them with a significantly lower strikeout rate). Still, he's held them to just a .538 OPS. 

The MiLBtv feed I watched was commercial-less, and, between innings, one could watch Syndergaard's warm-up pitches. I haven't heard whishpers of him developing a new pitch, but he looked to be working on a cutter between innings, on multiple occasions. If he works this new pitch into his arsenal, it would yet another weapon in an already drool-worthy arsenal. 

Finally -- For the first time in his career Syndergaard has been hitting, and he's done it well. He owns a 1.364 OPS at Triple-A. In Albuquerque Thursday, he blasted a deep deep home run to center field, and finished the day 3-for-4 with a double and two RBI. The color commentary noted that Syndergaard was well-regarded as a hitting prospect in high school and was almost drafted as a first base prospect. He takes a hefty cut and should provide plenty of entertainment with pitcher dingers, although they won't help your fantasy team. 

All in all, I do think Syndergaard will experience success in his first taste of major league action, though like many pitching prospects, the results are likely to be unpredictable, and sometimes frustrating. I wouldn't be surprised if he provides similar value to what Zack Wheeler did in 2013: a Mid three ERA with about 7 1/2 strikeouts per nine.

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