DFS NFL RB Coach – Week 8, 2015

A few things of note when understanding some of the statistics provided in the tables.  Most of the statistics are easy to understand but here are a few clarifications in case you are not following along:

Pace: Based upon how fast each team gets to the line to run plays. The idea being the faster a team plays, the greater number of plays are run which gives those particular players more chances at production. The rest of the data in the table is pretty easy to understand as it relates mostly to the amount of volume and expected volume we can count on from each of the top RB's this week. 

D vs Position: How that week's given opponent has done so far this season. 

DVOA: Player's value over the average NFL running back performance so far this season. This number has been adjusted based upon opponents' defenses faced so far this season. The higher the number, the more value they have created for their team. 

Script: Rating based upon the expected game script or basically how each player's role in the offense will be affected based upon expected game flow. The higher the rating, the greater the expected game flow will work in their favor.  I.E. Danny Woodhead plays more in passing situations so with San Diego being sizeable favorites his role in the offense will likely be reduced if the game works out as expected. 

Premium Options

Devonta Freeman is averaging over 27 touches over the last five games since taking over as the starter.  He did not have the monster game last week that we are accustomed to but was solid.  He had 130 total yards last week even after losing a 41-yard run due to penalty.  Freeman is proving to be the most reliable running back every given week.

LeVeon Bell is still the second-best running back even without scoring the last two weeks.  The Cincinnati defense has not been as good as expected so he should have success once again this week.  The Bengals own the eighth-worst run defense and Pittsburgh has the second-best run blocking unit.  Bell should be a very safe play this week and would be even better if Ben Roethlisberger can return.

Mid-Tier Options

Todd Gurley is still not priced up enough to avoid using him in almost every lineup.  The Rams can’t do anything but run and with the 49ers coming to town it should only continue.  Gurley is still a great value and is ONLY averaging over 164 total yards per game over the last three games.  Fade at your own risk.

Chris Ivory has proven to be one of the better week to week options in the league.  The only question for him is, will he be healthy?  Ivory has struggled with leg issues his entire career and was in and out of the lineup a bunch last week but still managed 19 touches.  The matchup is solid vs. Oakland assuming he is upgraded to probable. Ivory will be a good bet for 20-plus touches and over 100 yards.

Doug Martin continues to produce strong numbers each week.  He has at least 143 total yards in each of the last three games and takes on the worst run defense in the league.  His price is still very nice for the production he has put in this season.  I probably should like him more but just feel like I see too much Charles Sims at times.  Martin does dominate the goal line carries and with a rookie QB, Tampa Bay has focused on not putting too much pressure on Jameis Winston.

Mark Ingram would have incredible numbers if not for Khiry Robinson stealing some of his goal line carries.  The upside does feel a bit limited but the Giants are a Bottom-10 defense vs. the run.  New York also allowed Darren McFadden to run all over them.  There are TDs to be scored in what is expected to be the second-highest scoring game of the week.

Justin Forsett gets the second-worst run defense in San Diego this week.  I know my buddy Jeff Mans loves to pick on the Chargers' defense.  Forsett should find a ton of running lanes this week and he gets the added bonus of being involved in the passing game.  Baltimore did lose a couple of starters to injury on the offensive line last week so keep an eye on those before plugging Forsett in.

Bargain Options

Lamar Miller is a difference-making running back and he is finally getting his chance to show it.  The previous coaching issues really held him back.  Miller went off for 236 total yards in the first half alone last week.  He has 298 rushing yards in the last two games since Joe Philbin was fired.  The matchup is tough if New England jumps out to an early lead.  I do think Miami hangs with New England which should keep Miller involved.

Chris Johnson is amazingly second in the league in rushing yards.  He does split time with two other running backs but is still a good bet to go over 100 yards vs. Cleveland who is the fourth-worst rush defense in the league.  The Browns really struggle in particular in containing runs to the outside which Arizona should be able to exploit.  Johnson is probably more of a cash game play if needed as the time share does limit some of his touches compared to some of the other running backs that see more snaps.

Darren McFadden looks to be the guy this week in Dallas after Joseph Randle went down with an injury.  McFadden ran for 152 yards last week and the Cowboys' offensive line looked much improved with La’el Collins being moved into the starting lineup.  McFadden has always been an injury risk but he does bring a big upside potential with how good Dallas can run block when they are going right.  The matchup vs. Seattle is tough so McFadden looks more of a GPP play despite the cheap price.