I have been on the wrong foot with Kelsey Plum all season long, and it is driving me crazy. I included her in my optimal lineups last week against the Lynx and she had 2.5 fantasy points in six minutes. On Saturday I wrote, “there is nothing in her play or the way Stars head coach Vickie Johnson has used Plum to suggest Plum is going to be useful in any DFS format anytime soon.” Of course, all Plum did was make her first career start and score 24.1 fantasy points in 28 minutes after scoring 11.0 points in 30 minutes combined off the bench in her first three games. My optimal lineups managed to cash both days despite my take on Plum, but they could have been much better if I had figured out when to bench the number one overall pick in April’s draft and when to take a chance on her.

With that in mind, now seems like a good time for a deep dive into Kelsey Plum’s film and statistics in an effort to get a better handle on how to approach her, her teammates and her opponents for DFS. I hope this exercise will be interesting and helpful, but if you are less of a basketball geek than I am, feel free to skip ahead to the playbook picks and optimal lineups.

I’m going to start my in-depth look with Kelsey Plum’s defense because I think it is far easier to assess than her offense. I wouldn’t call Kelsey Plum’s defense a disaster, but it is pretty close. Among players who have averaged at least 10 minutes per game this season, only four have a worse defensive rating than Kelsey Plum’s 112.2. The caveat is Plum appears to be, at least to my eyes, an adequate off-ball defender. She displays good court awareness and sticks to shooters but is capable of helping off her player when needed.

On the other hand, she is extremely vulnerable on the pick and roll. In her first three games, Plum died on every pick, usually leaving the ball-handler with an open shot or a clear path to the basket. Plum just hasn’t been quick enough to get around screens, and while that could be a result of her preseason ankle injury, I don’t know that she will ever be an above-average on-ball defender. She could have more success if the Stars begin blitzing pick-and-rolls or if they have their bigs hedge against the ball-handler and then try to recover. To this point, they have largely avoided those strategies.

Saturday against the Sun, when Kelsey Plum got her first start of the season, San Antonio started the game by switching pick-and-rolls involving Plum. That left Plum guarding Jonquel Jones, and she had no chance of keeping Jones out of the paint or off of the offensive glass. One of the reasons Plum was able to play 28 minutes Saturday is the Sun did a poor job of exploiting her defense.

I included several Storm players in the playbook and optimal lineups below because I think they will do a better job of attacking Kelsey Plum off the dribble and making her pay if she switches onto a big. My best guess is Plum starts the game guarding Sue Bird, but Jewell Loyd will likely get some shots at her as well. If it becomes more clear who Plum will guard or who opposing teams will use as the primary screener, it will be even easier to take advantage of Plum’s defense for DFS.

As I mentioned above, Kelsey Plum’s film was not good through her first three games. I saw a lot more to like in her fourth game. The most noticeable difference was that Kelsey Plum got the ball up the court and got San Antonio into their sets far more quickly than she had been. Plum is actually 15th in the WNBA in offensive pace, which I wouldn’t have thought was possible after watching her first three games. If she reverts back to walking the ball up the court, that would be a red flag for her fantasy value going forward.

I was also encouraged to see Plum, Moriah Jefferson and Kayla McBride finally get some time together in a three-guard lineup. Most of San Antonio’s second-half comeback was a result of all three of them playing together, which virtually guarantees we will see more of it in the future. I’m not sure if the three-guard lineup is playable against a team like Seattle, but we will probably find out Tuesday.

Even beyond the three-guard lineup, I hope Saturday’s results encourage Vickie Johnson to play Moriah Jefferson and Plum more together. Plum hasn’t been great playing off the ball to this point, but that could change when Moriah Jefferson is running the point and not Monique Currie. In a lot of cases, Plum would be better off guarding shooting guards rather than chasing point guards around ball screens.

When Kelsey Plum is running the point, she has a hard time getting past defenders and into the paint. Maybe her ankle injury is still slowing her down, but I also think it is possible she is simply too slow to ever be an elite player in this league. It is too early in her career to know for sure.

When Plum does get some daylight, she has a quick release that allows her to get her shot off from almost anywhere on the court. She is shooting just 31.8 percent from the field, but I have no doubt that number will improve going forward.

When Plum gets into the paint, she is a capable finisher and a smart passer. In fact, her passing is probably her best asset right now, which is surprising considering he holds the NCAA women’s career scoring record. The highlight’s from Plums WNBA debut do a good job of illustrating what Plum is capable of offensively.

Even in Plum’s good game Saturday, she still committed four turnovers. That will likely improve somewhat as she learns what passes she can and cannot make at this level, but there will probably be growing pains for the rest of this season. I could see her committing even more turnovers Tuesday if Seattle traps her on the pick-and-roll, which is probably what they should do.

The bottom line is that I can’t imagine using Kelsey Plum for cash lineups going forward. I just don’t trust that she will be used consistently from game to game. I suspect she will play fewer than 28 minutes Tuesday, and it could be a lot fewer. I need to see her start a couple more games and play 25+ minutes before I will trust her.

I wouldn’t argue too vociferously with someone who wanted to use Plum in a GPP Tuesday. She could easily get hot from the field and make a bunch of shots. While Plum does not make the cut for Tuesday’s Playbook, I suspect she will be a GPP play when the Stars host the Chicago Sky Saturday because I think that is a better matchup for her on both ends. Plum will probably be matchup dependent for most of the season unless her price drops or her numbers (or film) improve.

The plan, as always, is to have a WNBA Playbook and Optimal Lineups whenever there are three or more WNBA games. We get three playbooks this week, with the next coming Friday. The intro to that playbook will almost certainly be shorter than today’s, but how much shorter could depend on your feedback. Please let me know what you thought of today’s in-depth look at Kelsey Plum in the comments below, in the forum, or on Twitter. If enough people found this interesting/useful, I will happily write more like it in the future.  

Player FanDuel  Price  Comments
Sue Bird, G, SEA $  5,700I obviously love the matchup (see above), but even if I didn't, Bird would be a strong cash play. She has scored at least 23.6 fantasy points in every game this season.
Candace Parker, F, LA $  8,700Parker is the most expensive player on the slate, but for good reason. In seven games against Chicago last season, Parker averaged 20.2 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. Chicago doesn't have anyone who can match up with Parker.
Ivory Latta, G, WAS $  3,700Latta played 25 minutes off the bench Sunday with Natasha Cloud and Tayler Hill out. She went 1-10 from the field but still finished with five points, three rebounds and four assists. If Latta makes a few more shots she could be a fantastic value.
Allie Quigley, G, CHI $  5,000Quigley has had at least 19.8 fantasy points in every game this season, and she should have the ball in her hands even more with Courtney Vandersloot out. Quigley is a safe cash play.
Essence Carson, G, LA $  3,800Carson's per-game averages look ugly because she played just seven minutes in her first game back after participating in the Turkish League's playoffs. Carson has played at least 27 minutes in all three games since. She should be safe even for cash games as the Sky have allowed at least 82 points in four consecutive games and five of their last six.
Nneka Ogwumike, F, LA $  7,900No team has allowed more rebounds than the Sky this season, and only the Fever have allowed more points. Chicago has a lot of bodies to throw at Ogwumike, but I'm not sure it will matter.
Elena Delle Donne, F, WAS $  8,200I am interested to see how Dallas will defend EDD, but I'm not sure it will matter. I don't think they have anyone who can match up with her. Delle Donne has scored at least 20 points in five of her seven games this season, and he is coming off two consecutive double-doubles despite going a combined 9-29 from the field in those games.
Breanna Stewart, F, SEA $  7,300Breanna Banana is in the no-man's land between the really safe, really expensive forwards and the riskier plays who cost less than $6000. I think there is a decent chance she takes a back seat to Jewell Loyd in terms of scoring, but a double-double wouldn't surprise anyone, either. She is definitely more of a GPP play.
Jewell Loyd, G, SEA $  7,100Like Stewart, Loyd is a GPP play. She has slowed considerably after a torrid start, but there should be plenty of points to go around against San Antonio, and this could be the week Loyd scores 20+ again. I don't know if any of the Stars are capable of guarding her.
Alana Beard, G, LA $  4,600Beard is a safer version of Essence Carson. While Carson is probably the better value, I will gladly pay up for Beard if I can.
Krystal Thomas, F, WAS $  3,300Since Emma Meesseman left for EuroBasket, Thomas has played at least 19 minutes and scored at least 16.5 fantasy points in every game. The Wings are allowing 83.1 points per game this season, and Thomas 
Crystal Langhorne, F, SEA $  5,500Crystal Langhorne has failed to score in double-digits just once this season, and she made up for that by posting double-digit rebounds. She is by far the safest forward in her price range, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if she gets her first double-double of the season Tuesday.

POSFanDuel Cash POSFanDuel GPP 
GSue Bird$5,700GIvory Latta$3,700
GAlana Beard$4,600GEssence Carson$3,800
GIvory Latta$3,700GJewell Loyd$7,100
FCandace Parker$8,700FCandace Parker$8,700
FElena Delle Donne$8,200FNneka Ogwumike$7,900
FCrystal Langhorne$5,500FCrystal Langhorne$5,500
FKrystal Thomas$3,300FKrystal Thomas$3,300
      
 Total$39,700 Total$40,000
 Remaining$300 Remaining$0