Remember the scene from the movie Patton where the title character, played by George C. Scott, watches a battle unfolding and exclaims “Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book!” Patton knew what Rommel was trying to do—and was able to counter those moves—because he had literally read Rommel’s book on tank tactics. How awesome would it be if one day someone stood up in a fantasy draft and said “Steve, you magnificent bastard, I read your article!” and then drafted Hunter Henry?

The above scene illustrates why understanding draft trends and strategy are so important. Even if you don’t follow the trends or adhere to the strategies yourself, it is important to read the book on your opponents, so to speak. If you understand the strategies and trends that are likely to play out in your draft, you can plan accordingly. It also allows you to recognize when your league-mates are using a strategy and then counter those strategies effectively.

As the regular season approaches, one of the best tools for keeping track of draft trends is the Mock Draft Army. The Mock Draft Army allows you to participate in mock drafts with the best minds in the fantasy industry. You get to see various draft strategies put into practice, and the weekly Mock Draft Army report keeps you up to date on the latest trends as the offseason goes along. 

Perhaps the hottest draft trend in fantasy football is the Zero RB trend. The idea of zero RB is that running backs are largely interchangeable. Most backfields are a timeshare, and the running backs who do have a heavy workload tend to get injured (or suspended). There are always mid- and late-round running backs who pop, so the zero RB strategy involves loading up at other positions early while giving yourself several cracks at drafting the next Jay Ajayi, LeGarrette Blount or Robert Kelley. 

Be aware that if you employ the zero RB strategy, it will look a lot different depending on the size of the league and your league rules. Zero RB is probably better in deeper leagues with deeper rosters. First of all, in a 16 or 20-team league, as much as half of the league is going to have an RB1 who is risky, so taking safer players at other positions makes a bit more sense. If the rosters are deeper, you increase your chances of hitting on mid- or late-round running backs simply because you get more bites at the apple.  The downside to using zero RB in a shallow league is fantasy starters are less likely to be available on waivers. If you don’t hit on a couple of starting-caliber running backs, you may have to trade for one since help is unlikely to come via free agency.

The zero RB strategy is different in PPR and standard leagues as well. On the one hand, the strategy has less risk in a PPR format, since there are almost always running backs available in the late-rounds, who will see enough work in the passing game to be a solid RB2. You can take a few swings on high-upside plays but still take somebody like Chris Thompson who caught 49 passes in 2016.

In a recent article for Fantasy Alarm, Dan Malin argues against the Zero RB strategy. Definitely check that article out. Malin does a good job in that article of identifying the cutoff between the top running backs most fantasy players would feel comfortable with as an RB1 and the rest of the backs who are considerably riskier. This is a perfect example of why it can pay off to understand draft trends. Malin identifies Ty Montgomery as one of the riskier players who isn’t really an RB1, but if you disagree, that could be the perfect opportunity to load up at other positions and still get someone you feel comfortable with as your top RB. 

Niels Bohr once said “the opposite of a great truth is also true.” While zero RB is certainly trendy, taking running backs in the first two or even three rounds remains a popular strategy, especially among more experienced fantasy players. With the NFL trending towards passing and running back committees more than ever, there is even more to be gained if you can secure two top running backs. Sure there is risk after the first two or three running backs are off the boards, but that risk could pay off if Todd Gurley and Marshawn Lynch stay healthy and have huge seasons, which they have both done in the not-too-distant past.
Two other popular strategies involve waiting on quarterbacks and tight ends. Both positions have question marks at the top of draft boards and a lot of quality depth at the bottom. Especially in shallow leagues where a number of teams are only taking one quarterback and one tight end, many fantasy players are content to simply take whoever is left in the late rounds in favor of getting as many running backs and wide receivers as possible.

One of the problems with all of these strategies is they become less effective the more people in a draft employ the strategy. If three players in a 10-team draft try to go zero RB, they will continue to pass on quality running backs early on while the supply of top receivers dwindles quickly. The strategy works far more effectively if you are zigging when everyone else is zagging. 

For that reason, try to be aware of what everyone else is doing in your draft or auction. If your entire league is waiting on quarterback and tight end, don’t be afraid to buck the trend and take Andrew Luck or Greg Olsen if the value is there, even if your original plan was to wait on guys like Derek Carr and Hunter Henry. When you are riding those mid-round picks to a fantasy title, maybe your league mates will call you a magnificent bastard.