On Tuesday I said the slate was weak at the top, but I recommended paying for the top guys anyway. Thursday’s slate is stronger at the top, but I am mostly targeting the players I consider to be at the bottom of the top tier. I won’t tell anyone not to pay for Steph Curry or Kevin Durant, but I think you can get similar production from slightly cheaper players, so that is what I will do.

Point Guard

Patty Mills doesn’t exactly have a high ceiling, but he is averaging 13.9 points, 3.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists with Tony Parker out this season. If you want to go cheap at point guard Mills is by far the safest option, and he is a nice value against the Bulls if Parker sits again.

Tim Frazier played 39 minutes Monday with Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore out despite having a pretty poor game. Holiday and Moore are both questionable Thursday, and Frazier will be a solid play if they sit.

If Parker, Holiday and Moore play, Jameer Nelson would be the cheap point guard play of the day. Nelson has played at least 26 minutes in three consecutive games while Emmanuel Mudiay has struggled. Nelson could play fewer minutes if Mudiay shows signs of breaking out of his slump, but that hasn’t happened yet.

The Timberwolves have struggled against opposing point guards all season, and Kyle Lowry may be safer than Damian Lillard or Stephen Curry despite costing less. Lowry probably isn’t a great GPP play, but I said the same thing about John Wall before his 52-point outburst Tuesday.

PLAYERTMH/AOPPGPMPGFT%3PTMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG%USAGEFDPTS/GDKPTS/GACEPTS/GYPTS/G$FD$DK$FA
Patty MillsSASACHI2223.794%1.911.22.13.70.601.349%11.52%19.32119.420.2$4,300$4,700$4,000
Tim FrazierNOPHPHI2230.681%0.810.53.37.31.10.22.642%10.99%25.427.225.525.7$4,900$5,600$4,800
Jameer NelsonDENAWAS2226.578%1.49.72.94.40.70.1245%9.75%19.221.119.419.9$4,400$4,700$3,500
Kyle LowryTORHMIN2137.485%320.657.41.50.3344%14.14%38.541.738.740$8,600$8,200$6,050

Shooting Guard

While Tim Frazier is the safer play, Langston Galloway could be a great value if Holiday and Moore are out. Galloway scored 26 points in 36 minutes Monday.

Thursday’s slate features a lot of solid shooting guards but nobody I absolutely love. Will Barton is the cheapest of the shooting guard middle class on FanDuel and FantasyAces, and I might like him best on DraftKings as well. In his four games since returning from his ankle injury, Barton is averaging 18.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.8 steals.

If you fade Langston Galloway, Nik Stauskas is worth a look as a punt play at a weak position. Stauskas has played at least 33 minutes in all three games Robert Covington has missed, and while he hasn’t lit the world on fire, he did score double-digit points in two of those games.

DeMarre Carroll is expected to sit out either Thursday or Friday, and Norman Powell is a near must-play when Carroll sits. Powell is averaging 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists in four games as a starter this season.

PLAYERTMH/AOPPGPMPGFT%3PTMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG%USAGEFDPTS/GDKPTS/GACEPTS/GYPTS/G$FD$DK$FA
Langston GallowayNOPHPHI222180%1.792.51.51.100.738%9.23%15.917.21616.7$3,900$3,800$3,500
Will BartonDENAWAS103169%1.314.65.52.50.70.62.242%12.40%25.427.425.626$5,700$6,600$5,000
Nik StauskasPHIANOP2226.772%1.69.62.71.70.40.51.745%9.65%15.517.315.716.4$3,700$3,900$3,500
Norman PowellTORHMIN1714.278%0.86.21.91.20.50.10.548%10.37%10.911.71111.3$3,500$3,600$3,500

Small Forward

The last time Rodney Hood sat out, Joe Johnson had 18 points, three rebounds and four assists in 33 minutes. If Johnson gets close to those numbers again Thursday he will be a very nice value.

Gordon Hayward is like the small forward version of Kyle Lowry. Neither has much double-double upside, but Hayward is averaging 26.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.6 steals during his streak of nine consecutive 20-point games. Hayward should be a solid cash game play again, especially with Rodney Hood out.

Remember a month ago when Andrew Wiggins looked like a younger Jimmy Butler? Wiggins has struggled since then, but I am willing to blame at least some of his struggles on poor matchups against the likes of San Antonio, Utah, Boston and Memphis. Wiggins would be an even better play if DeMarre Carroll sits.

PLAYERTMH/AOPPGPMPGFT%3PTMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG%USAGEFDPTS/GDKPTS/GACEPTS/GYPTS/G$FD$DK$FA
Joe JohnsonUTAHGSW2324.483%1.393.32.10.50.10.945%9.30%16.417.616.517$3,600$4,400$3,500
Gordon HaywardUTAHGSW1735.888%1.723.16.43.91.10.21.944%16.73%37.339.437.638.1$8,100$8,600$6,000
Andrew WigginsMINATOR2136.677%1.522.242.40.60.42.743%16.06%29.932.130.130.6$6,000$6,400$5,100

Power Forward

Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric have been great since Robert Covington went down, and while they are pretty expensive on DraftKings, they are a pretty nice value on FanDuel and especially FantasyAces.

On DraftKings I will target their opponent, Terrence Jones. Jones is far more athletic than either Ilyasova or Saric, which gives him a reasonable shot at a double-double.

Most of the stars I like in this slate are safe, with the exception of Anthony Davis. With Russell Westbrook and James Harden getting the night off, Davis is by far the best fantasy option in Thursday’s slate. Davis should be pretty safe for cash games, but he offers unique upside in GPP lineups.

PLAYERTMH/AOPPGPMPGFT%3PTMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG%USAGEFDPTS/GDKPTS/GACEPTS/GYPTS/G$FD$DK$FA
Ersan IlyasovaPHIANOP320.70%155.30.310.31.338%7.14%13.214.713.513.7$5,300$5,700$4,150
Dario SaricPHIANOP2224.872%1.4106.11.80.50.22.139%11.68%19.421.419.720.1$4,500$5,200$3,900
Terrence JonesNOPHPHI2124.867%0.410.35.91.20.91146%11.35%21.922.922.222.1$4,700$4,600$4,450
Anthony DavisNOPHPHI213882%0.631.611.42.21.72.82.350%21.21%55.457.45655.7$12,100$11,800$8,400

Center

I do not believe in revenge games, but I do believe in matchups. The Bulls do not have the personnel to play Pau Gasol off the floor, and in the seven games Gasol has played 30+ minutes he is averaging 17.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.7 blocks and 0.9 steals.

Pau’s brother Marc is coming off two consecutive double-doubles, and he has an excellent chance to get a third against a Portland team that gives up 45.7 rebounds per game. Marc Gasol is a fantastic value on FantasyAces.

Joel Embiid is up to 28 minutes per game these days, and while I’d like it better if he was playing more, Jahlil Okafor’s absence should help Embiid rack up points and rebounds. No team has allowed more rebounds than the Pelicans this season.

PLAYERTMH/AOPPGPMPGFT%3PTMPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG%USAGEFDPTS/GDKPTS/GACEPTS/GYPTS/G$FD$DK$FA
Pau GasolSASACHI212659%0.611.47.42.50.41.11.249%12.26%25.827.126.226.1$6,000$5,000$5,700
Marc GasolMEMHPOR2233.881%1.519.264.20.91.72.145%14.91%35.737.83636.4$8,200$7,700$5,700
Joel EmbiidPHIANOP1423.378%1.418.57.61.60.42.43.747%23.96%32.135.132.532.8$6,600$7,500$5,700