I try to consider a variety of factors when putting together my schedule breakdown every week. I look at home/road numbers, pace, defensive rating and several other stats. I try to take into account opponent’s health and travel as well. One of the things I have largely ignored to this point is rest. Even with all of the buzz around resting players, I have failed to take advantage of the times when the schedule has afforded players extra rest. That changes now.
Obviously all the same criteria I use to identify quality matchups still apply. I probably won’t recommend a mediocre big guy going against Memphis just because he had two days of rest coming into the game, but rest will be an important factor. I should also note not everyone plays better with more rest. LeBron James is actually averaging 29.6 ppg on the second half of back-to-backs compared to 26.3 overall. For the most part, however, rest—like rain—is a good thing.
C.J. Miles, Indiana Pacers (Home vs. Magic, Home vs. Bucks, Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Toronto) This is a great example of a team with a very favorable schedule even though the matchups are only good. The Magic and Celtics are of course nice matchups, but the Bucks and Raptors are just decent. What Miles and his teammates have going for them is every one of those games are at home and they get at least one day off before each one. The Pacers played just three games the week before, so they should be well rested. For his part, Miles is averaging 13.7 ppg at home and 14.3 with one day of rest.
Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors (Road vs. Suns, Home vs. Pistons, Road vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Knicks, Home vs. Lakers) The Suns and Nuggets are right behind the Warriors in pace, with the Lakers in the top 10 as well. The Knicks, Lakers, Nuggets and Suns are all in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive rating. The worst matchup of the week is against Detroit, but at least the Warriors get two days off heading into that contest. Bogut is averaging 2.0 blocks and 10.6 rebounds when playing on two days’ rest.
Henry Walker, Miami Heat (Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Nets, Road vs. Raptors, Home vs. Cavaliers) The first two matchups are better than the last two, but the Heat have at least one day off heading into every game, which should be an advantage for this aging team. Michael Beasley could be a nice option this week as well.
Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks (Home vs. Kings, Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Suns, Road vs. Lakers, Road vs. Kings) Sure, I would like it better if the Hawks were at home, or if they had more time off between games, but there is not a single tough matchup on that schedule. I have had a soft spot for Schroder all season, and I like him even more because there is a chance the Hawks rest Jeff Teague in one of the back-to-backs. Kent Bazemore is a nice play if you need steals.
Andrea Bargnani, New York Knicks (Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Jazz, Road vs. Lakers, Road vs. Warriors, Road vs. Suns) The Warriors are the only team on this schedule not in the bottom 10 in defensive rating, and they make up for that by playing at the fastest pace in the league. Bargnani is averaging 14.0 points, 1.9 assists and 0.9 blocks, since returning from a calf injury about a month ago, and those numbers could see a nice bump this week.
Bargnani, of course, has gotten plenty of rest this season while sidelined with various injuries. Rest is probably less important for him than for somebody like Kyrie Irving who averages 37.2 minutes per game. One thing I know for sure is I will not rest until I find the best fantasy matchups each and every week.