I think one of the most difficult skills to master—in life and in fantasy—is knowing when to add or drop people from your life. I tend to get attached and see future potential, even though that person may be hurting me in the present. So when Marcus Smart starts slow and goes down with an injury, I am reluctant to drop him. Whether we are talking about NBA players on my fantasy team or ex-girlfriends, I tend to hold on too long.
I also have trust issues, though that is mostly just for fantasy. Most non-elite NBA players are going to be inconsistent; that is just the nature of the game. Every time someone like Aaron Brooks or Solomon Hill has a big game, I tend to be very skeptical. In the end I probably wind up holding onto fringe players too long and missing out on breakout stars because I do not trust the breakout.
Writing this weekly schedule article has helped me in that regard. I am much more likely to drop an average player with a poor schedule in favor of an average player with a good schedule than I was in past seasons. I still have a nasty habit of recommending players here and then forgetting to go add them in my fantasy leagues, but I am getting better.
This week I have focused on players with some breakout potential who also have good schedules. Anytime you can kill two birds with one stone in fantasy you are ahead of the game. The key to killing two birds with one stone, of course, is big rock, small birds. When you can find players who may be on the rise anyway, but also have a favorable schedule, you have a chance to really get a leg up on the competition.
Anthony Morrow Oklahoma City Thunder (Road vs. Jazz, Road vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Nets, Home vs. Warriors) Morrow would probably be a good pickup regardless of the schedule. The schedule just makes this a no-brainer. The Nets and Warriors are just average matchups, but the Jazz and Nuggets are great. Any time you can start someone against a team that just gave up 84 points at home—in the first half—you have to take advantage. Steven Adams, Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones (if he is healthy) are all good pickups in deep leagues.
K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers (Road vs. Spurs, Home vs. Celtics, Home vs. Suns, Road vs. Knicks, Home vs. Trail Blazers) I usually only look at Philadelphia’s schedule to see which of their opponents I can recommend for this article, but this week I noticed they have a pretty favorable schedule themselves. McDaniels leads all small forwards in blocks per game right now, and he contributes in enough other categories to be useful even if his block rate falls off. The matchups against the Celtics and Knicks are particularly inviting.
Harrison Barnes (Home vs. Jazz, Road vs. Thunder,) In a crazy twist of the schedule, the Warriors only play twice next week, though both matchups are quite favorable. It may be tough to keep Barnes on your bench in leagues without games played minutes, but if your league does have limits, this is a good way to get quality production and keep your pace down. Barnes is coming off his best game of the season, and it is possible he is finally breaking out. Even if that is not the case, Barnes should be good enough to take advantage of Utah and Oklahoma City’s weak wing defenders. Leandro Barbosa should be a good play in those games as well, especially in deep leagues.
Dion Waiters, Cleveland Cavaliers (Home vs. Nuggets, Home vs. Spurs, Road vs. Wizards, Home vs. Raptors, Home vs. Magic) This does not look like an awesome schedule at first blush, but the Raptors and Wizards are better offensively than defensively, and the Spurs have not been scary defensively this season thanks to various injuries. Cleveland gets to play four of these games at home, and the matchups with Denver and Orlando are particularly inviting. Waiters is going to play heavy minutes when healthy, as Matthew Dellavedova is injured and Shawn Marion has been pretty dreadful. I just think Waiters is too good not to produce for considering the upcoming schedule, I am willing to be on sooner.
Austin Rivers, New Orleans Pelicans (Road vs. Trail Blazers, Road vs. Kings, Road vs. Nuggets, Road vs. Jazz) By now I am sure you know I love those last two matchups, and I am not yet ready to trust the Kings’ improved defense. Portland is just an average fantasy matchup. The real key here is Rivers, who is putting up similar numbers to Eric Gordon in 13 fewer minutes per game. I believe it is only a matter of time before the Pelicans begin sitting Gordon in favor of Rivers, and the upcoming schedule is good enough for Rivers to have fantasy value even if he continues to play just 20 minutes a night.
When you look for pickups on the waiver wire, it is easy to get lost in a sea of mediocrity. When you can identify players with strong upcoming schedules and some breakout potential, as I have above, you have a chance to gain an advantage over the rest of your league.