Fantasy Alarm Daily Fantasy Basketball Du-Rant

Daily Dandies for Monday November 11th

 

by Michael Pichan (@FantasyNomad)





 

Fantasy Basketball Du-Rant

The Du-Rant title derives from a play on "Double Ups" in DFS lingo, which will be the backbone of my recommendations for you each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The Rant part will vary with each article. Sometimes I'll just go off on an opinionated Rant that hopefully will be entertaining and at times helpful, other times I'll rant about some statistical nuances that standout that could hopefully help you make a daily lineup decision. Today's Du-Rant we tip-off with a look at using the Vegas lines when drafting your roster.

 

In the last two editions of the “Du-Rant” I have discussed different daily drafting strategies. I am going to stick with that theme today and take a look at using the Vegas lines to influence your drafting decisions. Vegas lines can be a nice additional tool to utilize as you begin drafting your daily lineups, regardless if you bet on games, or not. For example, most of us realize that picking any players from the Pacers or Grizzlies tonight is probably not going to return adequate value, and by looking at the Vegas line for this matchup they confirm it as we see Vegas expects this to be the lowest scoring contest of the night as they have set the Over/Under at 183.5, the lowest of any of the nine contests this evening. To put that in perspective, of the nine games scheduled for tonight, six are set at an Over/Under of 196 or higher, with four of them coming in at or above an Over/Under of 200. This is not to say that you should altogether avoid targeting a few players here or there in some of the lower Over/Under lines, rather your chances of seeing higher Fantasy production will likely come from the games where Vegas has set the line at a 200 or higher Over/Under. So with that said here are the three lowest games with the lowest and highest Over/Unders of the evening, according to Vegas.

 

Lowest                        Highest

Memphis @ Pacers 183.5            Spurs @ 76ers 206.5

Cavs @ Bulls 185.5                TWolves @ Clippers 205.5

Magic @ Celtics 188.5            Pistons @ Trailblazers 202.5

 

Again, I want to reiterate that I am not suggesting that you avoid players altogether from the lower Over/Under lines, but your chances of getting more bang for your buck usually lies in targeting players in those contests where Vegas thinks the games will be the higher scoring affairs. One side note, when considering picking stars from the higher Over/Under games is that you need to be cautious of blowouts, as some of you may have saw recently experienced in Warriors, Spurs, and/or the Raptors game where the game gets too out of hand and many of the winning team’s starters go to the bench early in the fourth quarter. The only game tonight that I could see that possibly happening, and this should come as no surprise, but would from the Spurs, mainly their veterans, so that would make their mid-tier Fantasy options even more enticing as we segue into today’s Daily Dandies.

   

Daily Dandies

For those of you checking out my recommendations for the first time, I group the players in A,B,C,D Tiers as a play on the old A,B,C,D basketball camps and as an easy way to distinguish player tiers. (All prices are according to Draft Street). If you have any specific questions post them in the comments section and I will answer them asap or send me a tweet by clicking on my twitter handle at the top of this article. To see who is starting each night visit our NBA Lineups Page

 

A-All Star priced players that should put up All Star stats today (target 35+ FP, $15,000-on up).

 

* G Chris Paul (20.1%) Paul has a double-double in every game this season and is facing a TWolves team that does not defend the guard position very well, and played last night, granted they did not travel anywhere.  

 

* F Dwight Howard (19%) pleasent surprise, but Howard is listed as a forward on DraftStreet, and with Harden and Parsons dealing with minor injuries and facing a less than impressive defensive front line of the Raptors, I could see Howard finishing as the highest scoring player tonight.

 

B-rated Ballers: Big name players with big games, but not as high of a price tag as the top five or so priced players at each position (around 30 FP, $12,000-$15,000).


 

* G Derrick Rose (13.3%) calling break-out game tonight versus the Cavs.

 

* F Josh Smith (15%) averaged 21.5 points, 10.5 boards, 3.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks in two games versus Portland last season.

 

* F Kawhi Leonard (11.6%) Leonard returns to the starting lineup tonight.

 

C-as in players that COULD be in line to provide you with good to great value in the mid-tier price range (target 25+ FP, $8,000-$12,000).

 

* G Patrick Beverley (11.1%)  is facing an banged up Kyle Lowry, and Harden and Parsons are banged up as well, so Beverley has a chance to combine with Howard to carry the offensive load tonight.

 

* C Tiago Splitter (10.2%) Tim Duncan has been ruled out Monday night, so Splitter has a chance to see extended minutes and touches, granted he starts at center and Duncan starts at power forward (see below).


 

D-Discounted Dandies: Players on the cheap whose production may exceed what their discounted price tag suggests. (Double Digit Fantasy Production, $3,500-$8,000).

 

* G Danny Green (7.9%) coming off one of his best games in his career.

 

* F Boris Diaw (9.5%) will get the start with Duncan out tonight.

 

* F J.J. Hickson (9.0%), with Javale McGee out for the season he will see extended minutes and offers greater Fantasy upside than Timofey Mozgov.

 

* C Timofey Mozgov (8.6%) if you need to save a little more money than go with Mozgov over Hickson.