Michael Vick, QB, New York Jets - The Jets made many changes on offense this offseason, none bolder than bringing in Vick to compete with Geno Smith for the starting quarterback job. At 33 years old, Vick isn’t the electric runner he was back in his days in Atlanta but on the flip-side, he is a much better passer, something a Jets team that ranked second to last in passing yards per game last season are in dire need of. The issue I have with Vick is whether or not his desire to play football is still there. He was far more content than he should have been after losing the starting job to Nick Foles in Philadelphia last year and doesn’t seem to mind if he starts or backs up Smith here in New York. From a fantasy perspective, this entire Jets offense would be more valuable with Michael Vick as their starting signal caller.
Josh McCown, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - McCown will be a favorite sleeper at the quarterback position in 2014 after the stellar numbers he put up in limited action as a starter with the Bears last year. McCown will be joining a Bucs team that may not be as talented at the receiving position as Bears wide outs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are, but Vincent Jackson and possible rookie Mike Evans should provide McCown with adequate enough options to put up at least low-end QB1 numbers this season.
Shaun Hill, QB, St. Louis Rams - Like Michael Vick in New York, Hill brings with him a level of experience and success that could lead to him eventually stealing the reins from a younger, more highly touted player who currently ranks higher on the depth chart. For Hill, that talented younger QB is the injury prone former number one overall selection by the Rams, Sam Bradford, whose leash at the position just got a whole lot shorter with the signing of Hill who should be one of your top late round targets in two quarterback leagues this year.
Matt Flynn, QB, Packers - The football circle is now complete for Matt Flynn, who probably made more money off one good game then arguably any other quarterback in the history of the league, as he lands back with the team where he once set a couple franchise single-game records. Flynn is a risky target for those of you in two quarterback leagues looking to add a late round flier for depth at the position, as Flynn would still have to prove he is a better option than Scott Tolzien should Aaron Rodgers miss anytime throughout the season.
Charlie Whitehurst, QB, Tennessee Titans - I have heard some football fans refer to Charlie Whitehurst as “Jesus” based on his looks, obviously not his play, as he is arguably more of an antichrist caliber type player. You know, one who would be more of a curse than a savior should he fall into some playing time if Jake Locker goes down with yet another injury this season. The only way you are targeting Whitehurst is if you own Locker in dynasty and are desperate for an insurance policy or as a third of fourth drafted quarterback in a two quarterback league as Whitehurst would at least have some talented upside receivers to throw to with the Titans compared to what he had at his disposal when he found some playing time with the Seahawks a few years ago.
Colt McCoy, QB, Washington Redskins - I would rather have Colt Seaver (was the lead character in the TV show called the Fall Guy), than Colt McCoy. Hell I’d rather drink a 40 of Colt 45 malt liquor than own Colt McCoy in any league format, even dynasty, as at least the 40 of Colt will make me forget why we are talking about a third string QB who, even if he gets lucky and gets a chance to start, has about as much upside as a kid from a Punt, Pass and Kick competition.
Matt Schaub, QB, Oakland Raiders - Do not be surprised if we see Schaub find some success in Oakland, as he is presented with an opportunity for a fresh start and reports are he has been given a little more freedom in the play calling, especially once at the line of scrimmage. But we would be kidding ourselves if we think that moving to a team with lesser talent at receiver and tight end will result in a level of improvement from Schaub that will be anything more than something that is dependent on how favorable the matchup is on gameday. If you wanted to find the silver lining in this signing it could be with the team’s receivers, who now will have a veteran quarterback to throw them the ball, thus increasing the odds that the likes of Rod Streeter and Denarius Moore can take a step forward this season.
RUNNING BACKS
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Oakland Raiders - I would rather have an MGD in my hand then an MJD on my fantasy team, or a Raider running back for that matter. I could list all of Jones-Drew’s career totals, but then I would feel obligated to have Glory Days by Bruce Springsteen playing in the background while you looked at what MJD once was. Jones-Drew is nowhere near the back he once was and in the short-term he will play second fiddle to Darren McFadden, for as long as he can stay healthy of course. In that vein, the potential for future fantasy upside, should MJD be able to stay healthy himself, does present itself for the former Jags franchise record holding back. Just realize your patience will likely be tested while you wait and hope that Jones-Drew can find even a bit of success reminiscent of his glory days.
Ben Tate, RB, Cleveland Browns - Tate has all the potential in the world, as we have seen when he has been healthy and has gotten his chances. Tate has also proven that he is a consistent running back based on the fact he averaged 4.3 yards/attempt in each of his last two seasons. Tate is expected to be the Browns lead running back, although a couple rookies may make some off-season noise, we should still expect Tate to get the bulk of the carries for the Browns this season, especially in the red zone as you know the coaches will have more faith in the three-year vet than a rookie. Tate also gets a boost in PPR formats, as the Browns will be without their top receiving option in Josh Gordon (suspension), thus it should open up even more opportunities for Tate to be involved in the passing game with his new team in 2014.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins - We all know how this story is expected to play out as we see many former Broncos running backs shine in Denver then jump ship, for whatever reason, only to show that their success was more a product of an effective Broncos system than that of their own doing (which is why we should expect a big sophomore season from DEN RB Montee Ball this season). You should expect very little of that to change with Moreno’s move to Miami, as he will compete for carries with Lamar Miller. Moreno’s value will could also be devastated by landing on a Dolphins team whose offensive line has been crippled by injuries, poor performances, and of course, the loss of players due to the Martin/Incognito fiasco. They did make some good off-season moves to try and improve their offensive line, but how the new additions gel and can run block still leaves plenty of question marks when considering Moreno’s 2014 fantasy value. I do not recommend you reach for Moreno in your fantasy drafts this season, but he does offer enough upside that you should not totally avoid him if he happens to still be on the board around pick 75 or later.
Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants - History suggests that Jennings is in line to reach double-digit touchdown production with his new team as the Giants have produced a 10-touchdown running back in each season Tom Coughlin has been their head coach. Jennings flashed even more of his high-ceiling upside, both as a rusher and as a threat in the passing game, when he was given the opportunity to start for the Raiders last season. The potential of a timeshare between Jennings and his new teammate David Wilson could help keep Jennings’s stock from getting too high, which is helpful as I do not see Wilson, if he gets healthy, to have as large of an impact on Jennings as many seem to expect, especially considering Wilson has shown to be fumble prone at times, which should open the door for Jennings to become their red zone back.
Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars - For all the running backs that changed teams this offseason, Toby Gerhart has arguably improved his fantasy stock the most out of the bunch. No longer will the 28-year Gerhart play second fiddle to anyone else, as he goes from backing up the best running back in the game to becoming the lead back for a Jaguars team that had that hole to fill in part due to the departure of Maurice Jones-Drew to the Raiders this offseason. The question becomes, what can we conservatively expect from the 6-foot 230-plus pound back in his new prominent role with his new team? Jacksonville’s new offensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, answered that for us when he told the media that Gerhart could carry the ball 16-18 times a game in 2014. If Bradley sticks to his word, then we can roughly project Gerhart to average around 70 yards per game, (15 carries multiplied by his career average yards per attempt of 4.7), a per game average that would have had Gerhart near the top 10 among running backs last season (11th-Lions Reggie Bush, 71.9 yds/g, 12th-49ers Frank Gore, 70.5). Gerhart may have the physical look of a goal line like back, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s a plodder. Gerhart, in limited action last season, showed fantasy owners he can break them off something nice as he had four runs of 20-plus yards in just 36 rushing attempts, while leading the NFL (min. 30 carries) with a 123.4 elusive rating and led all running backs in yards after contact per attempt at 3.78 (again min. 30 attempts). He has proven that he can be threat in the passing game, as well. Gerhart has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy running back talent wise, but he will need a lot of things to go in his favor for that to happen, including overcoming running behind a Jags offensive line that allowed their running backs to be stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage a quarter of the time last year (3rd highest overall team percentage).
Donald Brown, RB, San Diego - The Chargers are replacing one Brown, in Ronnie, whom they chose not to re-sign, with a new one in Donald. The former 2009 first round (27th overall) selection in the 2009 NFL Draft finally began to fulfill some of his potential last season as he rushed for 537 yards on 102 carries (7.9 avg) and six touchdowns with the Colts. Unfortunately, he will figure into the same reserve type role that was held by Ronnie Brown for most of last season with the Chargers, but is worth putting on your watch list as we all know how injury prone starting running back Ryan Mathews has been.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers - From a football perspective, this is a good signing by the Steelers, as they now have a back that can help lighten the workload of second-year starter Le’Veon Bell, which should increase his chances of staying healthy and spry. From a fantasy perspective, this blows as Bell, who averaged nearly 20 carries per game, including carrying the ball 20-plus times in each of the Steelers last three games, will now likely see closer to 15 attempts per game with the addition of the rejuvenated Blount who is coming off of a season where he posted a career-high five yards rushing/attempt. Blount’s affect on Bell’s value doesn’t stop there though, as his real fantasy F U will come near the goal line where he could easily end up becoming the biggest touchdown vulture of the 2014 season. So be careful not to overvalue Le’Veon Bell in your redraft leagues based on his solid rookie performance last year.
Andre Brown, RB, Houston Texans - The Texans signed Andre Brown, and his glass legs, to serve as Arian Foster’s backup. The addition of Brown combined with the departure of Ben Tate does more for Foster’s value going into this season then it does for Brown, who may vulture a touchdown from time-to-time but can not be trusted to have a prominent role in an offense due to the fact it is not a question of “if” Brown will get hurt but rather “when” will it happen.
Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets - CJ2many disappointing years recently has caused fantasy owners to sour on him, which should do wonders for keeping his 2014 ADP down. He will be joining a Jets team that loves to run the ball, has a slightly better offensive line than the Titans, and although he will be in a time-share with teammate Chris Ivory, the former 2,000 yard rusher should get plenty of opportunities on the ground and in the passing game to provide fantasy owners with high-end RB2 numbers (in any format) with the potential for low-end RB1 numbers in PPR formats.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins - DJax put up career numbers in receptions and yards last season in Chip Kelly’s pass friendly new Eagles offense. Jackson will likely find it difficult to come anywhere near the 82 receptions and 1,332 yards receiving he posted last year, but still could be a viable fantasy WR2-3 with his new team, as the Redskins are transitioning into a more pass friendly offense under new coach Jay Gruden and so long as RGIII is healthy, Jackson will have an accurate, strong-armed quarterback that can get him the ball down field in 2014.
Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets - Hope he enjoys all that money he made by signing with the Jets as the good times on the field could be far and in between this season. Decker will now be the number one receiving option on his team, thus will garner the majority of attention from opposing defenses that will likely result in Decker being faced with frequent double teams that were never an issue before. And I’m pretty sure I don’t have to point out that should Geno Smith be under center, as opposed to offseason acquisition Michael Vick, counting on Decker in fantasy will be like counting on the Jets coach Rex Ryan to refrain from running his mouth and saying ridiculous things in the media.
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions - Tate’s decision to sign with the pass happy Detroit Lions was “Golden.” All you have to do is look at what the emotionally challenged Titus Young was able to accomplish when he was on the field with the Lions two-years ago to get an idea of the potential for production that we could see from Tate now that he is joining a Lions team that has been in the top five in the NFL in pass attempts the last three seasons.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos - Sanders will slide into the position vacated when Eric Decker signed with the Jets. Sanders may not arguably possess as much talent upside as Decker and now will have to compete against more players on his own new team for targets, but if you compare Decker’s 2013 stat line while with the Broncos to that of Sanders while with the Steelers last year we can see that their pass catching abilities are similar and so too are their abilities to get yards after the catch. Thus, it seems safe to project that Sanders should see an uptick in fantasy production in 2014 with Decker’s 2013 stat line serving as a more of a ceiling than an expected level of production.
Brandon LaFell, WR, New England Patriots - Like Broncos new wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, LaFell joins a team where any new receiver gets a bump in value and projected fantasy earning potential due to having a future Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm. That said, LaFell goes from a Panthers team where he was a starting receiver who was very inconsistent to a Patriots team where he will have to compete for playing time while still possessing a skill set that does not gain the confidence of fantasy owners. Let others fall prey to the possible hype surrounding LaFell’s move to New England while you target a receiver who is guaranteed playing time and likely has a better skill set than Brandon LaDrops.
Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens - The 14-year vet’s attitude and charisma are a perfect fit for a Ravens team that is searching for the confident edge that was lost when Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed was released. The Ravens are also a perfect fit for Smith, as he will no longer be the number one receiving option on a team where defenses were focused on shutting him down and instead will be a nice complementary option to Ravens top wideout Torrey Smith that could lead Steve Smith to once again become a consistent fantasy producer and thus also helping Ravens QB Joe Flacco have a bounce back season.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, Indianapolis Colts - Nicks should be a little more motivated this season as he will get a fresh start with a new team who has a quarterback in Andrew Luck who is trending in a more positive direction than Nicks’ former, now noodled arm quarterback Eli Manning. Add in the fact the 26-year old Nicks signed just a one-year deal with the Colts, so this year will serve as an audition for him to try and prove he is worth a big money, extended-year contract come this offseason. The biggest question becomes are you willing to roll the dice on this injury prone wide out in exchange for the potential for WR1/2 type production in 2014?
James Jones, WR, Oakland Raiders - The Raiders will be forced to throw the ball often this season as they again project to be a team that will have to play from behind. That said, the Raiders receivers of Rod Streeter and Denarius Moore present more upside potential than Jones and there is plenty of question marks at the quarterback position, even with the offseason signing of veteran QB Matt Schaub, to warrant having much faith in Jones being a consistent fantasy option in 2014.
Nate Burleson, WR, Cleveland Browns - If you are concerning yourself with a Browns receiver, especially one who has long since seen his days of fantasy relevancy pass him by as Burleson has, then you are gluttening for the same punishment as those who continue to still be a fan of the Cleveland Browns team.
Miles Austin, WR, Cleveland Browns - While I dissed the idea of concerning yourself with a Browns receiver in fantasy above, if you are hell bent on trying to find value at the position in this organization that causes more heartache then happiness, Austin would be that guy. Austin becomes even more appealing, and I use that term loosely, now that their number one receiving option, all-world talent Josh Gordon, will potentially miss the entire season due to suspension. With Gordon out, Austin now becomes their top receiving option and thus at least should see enough targets to be worth a late round flier if you had to chose a breakout Browns receiver to target.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers - You would have to be on GHB to target DHB in fantasy. The guy’s hands are made of stone, he is coming off an injury riddled season and has proven that counting on him for any consistent production over the years leads only to fantasy frustration and the use of a waiver wire pick up when you finally decide you have had enough of this bum and drop him later than you should have had you listened and not drafted him in the first place.
Andre Roberts, WR, Washington Redskins - Roberts goes from the bottom of one receiving food chain in Arizona to another in Washington, where he will be lucky to find enough targets to be counted on in fantasy on a Redskins team that already had WR Pierre Garcon and TE Jordan Reed, then added downfield threat DeSean Jackson to their already talented receiving core, not to mention Roberts will also have to compete with veteran WR Santana Moss for playing time this coming season.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Carolina Panthers - The 31-year old wideout was a sneaky standard league play last season, as he had 10 touchdowns in just 46 receptions. If you were fortunate enough to benefit from Cotchery’s success last season, count yourself lucky. If not, do not try and make up for it by going after him this season thinking that the potential for an expanded role in Carolina will lead to another standout fantasy season. Cotchery is too old and lacks the skillset at this point in his career to be an every down receiver. In addition, all the red zone targets he was lucky to get last year are unlikely to follow him to Carolina, as the Panthers have two tight ends in Ed Dickson and Greg Olsen who will be in the mix and the Panthers also have a tendency to rely on the run the closer they get to the goal line.
Kenny Britt, WR, St. Louis Rams - Pretty amazing that we have yet to hear Britt’s name in the press for some off-field nonsense. Does this mean at the age of 25-years old, (yes, he is just 25), Britt has finally gotten his personal life in check? We can only hope so, but that is not the only issue plaguing Britt as he has been unable to stay healthy for the majority of his six seasons in the league. On the positive side, he will reunite with former head coach and current Rams head coach, Jeff Fischer, and is still young enough at the age of 25-years old that he still could have some good years left in the tank if he can overcome the injuries that have plagued him thus far in his career. The upside is nice and although it may not outweigh the risk, Britt is still a player you should target in dynasty leagues if the value is right, but not yet in re-draft leagues as he does not currently project to have a secure role in the offense with his new team.
Dexter McCluster, WR, Tennessee Titans - The multi-talented waterbug lands with a Titans team that could provide a few more opportunities for touches and targets then he was receiving with his former team. The key will obviously be in how his new team uses him. At this point, projecting McCluster to be more consistently involved offensively is not looking as good as it first did as the Titans are talking about playing McCluster more at receiver, which does not bode as well for him gaining more targets, as the Titans are much deeper than the Chiefs were at receiver. In order for McCluster to warrant fantasy consideration in PPR formats this season, he will have to retain his RB status and we will have to see that he will also be utilized out of the backfield where he is most dangerous. If not, then he is best left undrafted in most leagues.
Tiquan Underwood, WR Carolina Panthers - Here we have a player more known for his high top fade than anything else. The former 2009 seventh round pick by the Jaguars has spent the majority of his career bouncing around from one team to the next, but it does look like he has finally landed with a team in the Panthers that presents at least the potential that Underwood can finally become known for what he is doing on the field more so than what his hair looks like while on the sideline watching, albeit at a level of improved production that still may not be one that you can count on in shallower re-draft leagues in 2014.
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland Browns - Baby Hawk, as he is affectionately referred to by some in the fantasy community, looked primed for a breakout before an injury quickly stunted that chance last season with the Bengals. While Miles Austin and possibly Nate Burleson will be the favorites to garner the attention of those fantasy owners seeking to find value on a Browns team that led the NFL in pass attempts last season, it could be Hawkins that emerges as the more reliable asset to own, at least in PPR formats. Early reports out of camp in Cleveland is that it is Hawkins who is making the biggest splash at the position even getting a Wes Welker comp from quarterback Brian Hoyer, which could be some hyperbole, but regardless it appears he Hawkins is gaining the confidence of this teammates and coaching staff.
Jacoby Ford, WR, New York Jets - Ford has already had to deal with some foot soreness, which does not bode well for him considering he has had one injury after another early in his career, including having to miss the entire 2012 season due to a foot injury.
Mario Manningham, WR, New York Giants - Manningham returns home to his former team and will look to recapture some of the success he had when he started his career with the Giants. There is an outside chance Manningham can earn himself a spot on fantasy rosters at some point this season as he and Eli Manning have a good chemistry and with the departure of Hakeem Nicks to the Colts, Manningham will have one less prominent receiver to contend with for targets.