A Look into the Future By Nostra-DOM-us – “Keeper Rankings Edition”

With most fantasy leagues already wrapped up and only one week left in the NFL’s regular season, it seems pertinent to bestow upon my readers – in the spirit of holiday gift giving – a “way too early” list of top running back keepers for 2016. These rankings will look much different come late summer as players change teams and rookie backs enter the league. However, for now this should give owners a good idea on who to keep an eye on headed into the NFL offseason. Based upon a vague formula of this season’s ADP (Average Draft Position), 2015 production, impending free agency (contract status), and future evaluated potential, I give you my rankings…

2016 Top-Five Running Back Keepers

(1) David Johnson

This truly was a tough choice, but ultimately what it came down to was ADP value. Considering most keeper formats allow you to keep the player at the draft position they were taken in during the previous draft, Johnson offers the most potential production to draft positional value in 2016.

Coming into 2015 as a rookie, Johnson was selected in most fantasy drafts at an average draft position of 132nd. That would make him somewhere around an 11th to 13th round pick, depending on the size of your league. Take that unbelievable value and combine it with his incredible potential, and you have yourself a franchise player for years to come in any keeper format.

Along with his reasonably low ADP, Johnson looks to head into 2016 as one of the league’s top fantasy backs. He finished 2015 in very strong form, featuring three games with over 120 total yards and even one where he combined for 229 yards against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Even more pertinent to the concerns of fantasy football, Johnson managed to find the end zone an astounding 13 times on a variety of different touches (eight rushing, four receiving, one kick return).

Assuming that most players continue to get better from their rookie season on, one would come to the conclusion that Johnson’s nose for the end zone is only going to improve from here on out… Simply put, the future is bright for young Mr. Johnson.

(2) Todd Gurley

It was tough to not give Gurley the nod as the No. 1 keeper option for 2016, but David Johnson’s value was just too good to pass up. Gurley finished 2015 as not only the best rookie running back, but also as a top-five overall fantasy back. He totaled 1,108 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, good enough for 4.8 yards per carry – impressive totals for a rookie coming off a torn ACL just nine months prior to the start of the season.

For Gurley his ADP in 2015 drafts will cost fantasy owners somewhere between a fifth or sixth rounder in 2016 – excellent value for someone who many believe may end up being the best back in the league in only a couple of years. Considering all of this, Gurley comes in as the second best keeper option for 2016.

(3) Devonta Freeman

Freeman was an obvious nominee for the top keeper spot headed into 2016, even when considering he finished 2015 as my fantasy running back MVP. For these rankings, however, he only comes in at No. 3 despite holding a very favorable ADP of 112 in 2015. That comes in as an 11th or 12th round pick in 2016, depending on league size, which might be too much value to pass up on.

My argument for the other two over Freeman is two-pronged…

For starters, Freeman fell off hard after his historic start to 2015. He was leading the world in rushing touchdowns up until Week 6 and then saw his production fall off a cliff as the Falcons lost their undefeated identity and he became increasingly banged up.

Secondly, Freeman is on a much shorter leash than Gurley and Johnson are…

Headed into 2015, Freeman was actually the backup running back to rookie Tevin Coleman – a man with whom they invested a third-round pick in. Coleman proved in Freeman’s absence that he could get the job done, rushing for 110 yards on 18 carries against a good Vikings defense in one of his few starts of the season. If Coleman hadn’t been injured early on in the season, Freeman might never have seen the field as a starter in 2015, drastically changing the fate of this entire fantasy season. Next year Coleman will enter 2016, once again, with a fair shot at the starting running back job, provided he is healthy and has found a way to fix his fumbling issue.

Still a great keeper option based on ADP value and production, fantasy owners should tread cautiously and consider themselves warned about Devonta Freeman.

(4) Adrian Peterson

AP will enter 2016 as a 31-year-old, an age in which very few backs find it possible to still produce at a fantasy relevant level. Peterson is no mere mortal, however, as he runs with ferocity and talent rarely seen in NFL history. Although he has shown no signs of slowing down, he has to at some point right?

I’m not saying that 2016 will be a down year for AP, but to continue to expect this type of production from a 30-plus year old back eventually has to be considered irresponsible. For this reason combined with a couple of others, AP comes in at fourth on the list.

As opposed to the other backs on this list, Peterson is the one trick pony in this otherwise depressing Vikings offense. They continue to work his legs to the bone, giving him considerable tread on his tires. Yards are harder to come by for AP due to the stacked boxes that he consistently faces on a weekly basis.

Along with his tough sledding work as the feature back in Minnesota, he holds little value as a receiver out of the backfield. All of the three other backs ahead of Peterson rank better in PPR formats.

Lastly, as opposed to the other backs ahead of him on the list, AP will take up a first round pick in future drafts due to his ADP of 3.3.

Still one of the all-time greats, there are better keeper options at running back headed into 2016. 

(5) Doug Martin

Entering Week 17, Martin has himself a chance to win the rushing title outright over the aforementioned Adrian Peterson. Something needs to be said about that, considering he was coming off of back-to-back terrible, injury-plagued, seasons. Although he is going to be an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this offseason, the Bucs have made it clear that resigning him is their No. 1 priority. Seemingly reclaiming his confidence, vision and balance as a runner in 2015, Martin rounds out the top-five fantasy running back keeper list, costing owners only an eighth or ninth round pick due to his ADP of 97 in 2015 drafts.

Just Missed the Cut

(6 and 7) Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles

Both Bell and Charles are in the same boat here, as although they may be the two most talented backs in the league, they are both coming off significant knee ligament tears and subsequent surgeries. Both also would cost fantasy owners a first round draft pick in 2016, so there is certainly risk in keeping either player.

(8) Lamar Miller

Miller is an interesting case here, as he enters the 2016 offseason at only 24 years old and an unrestricted free agent (UFA). When given the proper amount of touches, he has proven to be incredibly productive and posted some very good numbers in 2015. The Dolphins have talented rookie Jay Ajayi waiting in the wings, and don’t seem too keen on resigning Miller during this offseason.

The risk in keeping Miller is the “DeMarco Murray Effect”. There’s always a chance that like Murray, Miller could end up on a team that favors a running back by committee approach or even worse, fails to mold a scheme around his skill set. This would render his third-round keeper slot useless.

On the plus side he could end up in an offense that better values and utilizes his talents, thus enhancing his fantasy potential.

In any event, there is still too much up in the air and “what if’s?” for me to sign off on Miller as a fantasy keeper at a third-round selection.

(9) Karlos Williams

As a rookie, Williams was a home run threat every time he touched the ball in 2015. He seemed to produce crooked stat lines on a weekly basis, whether LeSean McCoy was healthy or not. Based upon his tape and production from his rookie season, it is tough to consider Williams anything other than an explosive young back. A safety for most of his collegiate career at Florida State, Williams carries very little wear-and-tear on his body due to his recent switch to the running back position. Considering all of this, and his 2015 ADP of 170 – a 2016 value of anywhere between a 14th to a 17th round pick – Williams has to be considered one of the more intriguing keeper options of the upcoming offseason. Still though, saddled behind the established vet in LeSean McCoy with an unmovable contract, there is a chance that Williams could remain a change-of-pace back for the next couple of seasons.

(10) Latavius Murray

Murray marks the final choice on “Just Missed the Cut” here due to his head scratching production in 2015. He was the unquestioned starter, but was incredibly inconsistent, like the rest of his young Oakland Raiders teammates I suppose. At times he would use his incredible size and speed combo to be one of the most physically impressive backs in the league, while other times he would only take what the Raiders shoddy run blocking offensive line would give him. The feeling is that the Raiders are on the upswing and would like to ride the leg drive of Murray, along with their other young offensive weapons. Taking only a fifth or sixth round selection if kept, Murray seems to be worth the gamble.

Notably Omitted:

Matt Forte – 2015 ADP: 11.7 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 1st round

(Over 30 years old and 2016 UFA)

LeSean McCoy – 2015 ADP: 17.4 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 2nd round

(Struggled to stay healthy and has Karlos Williams on his heels)

Chris Ivory – 2015 ADP: 64.2 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 5th to 6th round

(Broke down physically and is a 2016 UFA… Jets looking in another direction?)

Marshawn Lynch – 2015 ADP: 7.1 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 1st round

(Teased retirement after 2014; 30 years old; Physical running style finally catching up to him? Thomas Rawls was more productive and is younger)

Darren McFadden – 2015 ADP: 115 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 9th to 11th round

(History of injures and Dallas is rumored to still be looking for a RB in the draft)

Eddie Lacy 2015 ADP: 4.9 – 2016 Draft Selection if Kept: 1st round

(Significant offseason weight gain held him down for much of the season; bad offensive line in Green Bay; out produced by James Starks; incredibly inconsistent in 2015)