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“Deck the Rawls with tons of carries”
Five weeks ago, after the Seahawks struggled to defeat a Romo-less Dallas Cowboys squad by the score of just 13-12, it appeared that Romo was burning for the back-to-back NFC Super Bowl representatives. Their once infallible defense had become a question mark, Russell Wilson was getting sacked at an alarming rate, and their formerly unstoppable running game had come to a screeching halt due to the unfortunate health (or lack there of) of Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch.
The following week they took another “L” to their division rivals in the Arizona Cardinals, making their playoff hopes seem – for the first time in a while – bleak. Fast-forward a month from that moment and one could argue that Seattle is the second-hottest team in the NFL right now (behind the undefeated Panthers of course). What has changed? Well to put in the most simple of terms… they went back to basics.
Essentially Seattle sat down the laboring Marshawn Lynch, who couldn’t catch a break in terms of injuries, while they turned to their undrafted rookie in Thomas Rawls, who had previously shown an ability to produce while filling in for Lynch earlier in the season.
Following their Arizona loss, to begin the Seattle hot streak, the Seahawks got back to their old identity of ground and pound offense and hounding defense. Against the 49ers, they fed the rookie Rawls 30 carries for an astounding 209 yards and a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 46 yards and another touchdown. The following week against the Steelers, he totaled 81 rushing yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, properly pacing the Seattle offense to pick up a huge win at home. This past week vs. a good Minnesota defense, he carried the ball 19 times for 101 yards and yet another touchdown, leading the Seahawks on the road past a Vikings team that many had thought highly of.
What he has done for Seattle during this three-game stretch is football basics. The presence of a fresh-legged runner has extended offensive drives, thus taking pressure off their incredibly talented, yet exhausted defense. His rushing production has as well taken pressure off of Russell Wilson and the demand for him to create with his spontaneous scrambling ability. Opposing defenses can no longer pin their ears back on the defensive line and sit in a five-man shell in the secondary, forcing plenty of eight-men fronts, opening the pocket and the play-action boot wide open for quarterback Russell Wilson. Essentially one can argue that Rawls has turned around this Seattle season, elevating the play of almost every aspect of this team.
During this holiday season of giving, lets not tell the story of how the Grinch stole Christmas, but rather lets acknowledge how Rawls saved it in Seattle. Lets sing it out loud now… “Deck the Rawls with tons of carries! Fa la la la la, la la la la!”
PPR Bonus
In what has become a semi-retired segment of The Running Back Workload, “PPR Bonus” is making a Favre like return for the Week 13 Review…
James White
It took a month too long in the eyes of fantasy owners, but someone finally emerged victorious in the vacant “Dion Lewis” role for this suddenly desperate New England offense. On Sunday, in a losing effort against the Eagles, running back James White operated as Brady’s safety blanket only capable receiver, as he hauled in 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. After battling with Brandon Bolden for the past few weeks, it appears as though White has surpassed him in usage on most downs, while ceding a few random drives to LeGarrette Blount when coach Belichick feels like pounding the rock. This will only mean great things for White’s fantasy value going forward that is sure to skyrocket in PPR formats over the final month of the season.
Bilal Powell
Also surprising many in the PPR world on Sunday was Bilal Powell, who in an obvious game-planned agenda was targeted a team-high 13 times, catching eight passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. When asked on “The Michael Kay Show” (98.7 ESPN Radio) about Powell’s role in the offense and whether or not his heavy involvement was intended on Sunday, coach Todd Bowles said, “It was part of the game plan… Bilal’s a big part of what we do on offense… He had the hot hand so we went with him.” In hopes of continuing their playoff push, expect coach Bowles and the Jets to keep riding the hot hand. Right now that appears to be the passing game, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and now apparently Bilal Powell. Keep him in mind when making your daily fantasy lineups.
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Lately my predictions have been more off than Mayan Calendar enthusiasts and believers in the Y2K hysteria, but one thing I wouldn’t say about my Nostra-DOM-us segment is that my predictions are baseless. So in continuing to use season-long compiled data and sound football logic, I give you my prophecy…
“Denver will rush for over 140 yards vs. Oakland”
Since taking over as the starting quarterback in the “Mile-High City,” Brock Osweiler has spurred a dramatic change in the Broncos offense. He’s led Denver to an undefeated 3-0 record during his three starts, while allowing Gary Kubiak to run his preferred “pro-style” offense. This narrative has been beaten to death in that “Brock is lining up under center more times in each game than Peyton Manning did all season long,” but the numbers are hard to tune out in terms of overall rushing success. Over the three games so far in the Osweiler era, the Broncos are averaging 161 rushing yards per game, good enough for first in the league during the span. Although two of the teams included in the streak struggle to stop the run, the team that they did the most damage against was the New England Patriots, who at the time were ranked second in the league in overall rushing defense. The threat of Osweiler on the bootleg, or simply the threat of him putting some zip on a throw past the first-down marker, has opened up rushing lanes for not only the Denver running backs to operate, but most importantly, for their much-maligned offensive line.
What makes this matchup great for sports betters is that the public has greatly overrated the Raiders. Sure they are in a playoff hunt at 5-7 and feature a suddenly emerging offense, but they haven’t beaten a single team of note. The five teams they have beaten shamefully wear a combined record of 19-41 like an “A” around their proverbial necks. The best win on their schedule is against a banged up, Geno Smith led, 7-5, New York Jets team – underwhelmingly the only team they have beaten with a winning record this season. Combine all of this with the fact that the Broncos are hot, at home, and hosting a Raiders team that is mediocre at best in stopping the run (ranked 17th in overall rushing yards and are allowing 4.4 yards per carry)… It seems like the Broncos might “run” away with this one.
With C.J. Anderson shaking off an ankle injury that he suffered in last week’s win, Ronnie Hillman continues to be the better fantasy play for this matchup. Regardless of health though, expect all three Broncos backs (C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, and now Juwan Thompson to a lesser degree) to see legitimate time in what should be a reasonably comfortable win for Denver.