Rush for Redemption

Headed into last season everyone was talking about the big 2014 that second-year running back Montee Ball was poised to have in the high-powered Broncos offense. Ball never really seemed to show up for Broncos camp (metaphorically, of course) and by early October, the starting running back job fell into the lap of the unassuming Ronnie Hillman. Hillman did his best, scoring three touchdowns over a five-game span as the starter, but then out of nowhere, in Week 8, C.J. Anderson burst onto the scene by rushing 13 times for 90 yards against the Oakland Raiders. After that, Anderson never really relinquished the lead back duties again, as the Broncos rode him all the way to the playoffs. By season’s end, Anderson actually finished with the best second half of any fantasy running back in 2014, totaling 767 yards and eight touchdowns, including two 150-plus yard games and two three touchdown games.

When 2015 rolled around, C.J. Anderson was the toast of the fantasy football world, reaching as high as No. 4 on many preseason draft rankings. He had everything going for him in a high-powered offense led by Peyton Manning, while new coach Gary Kubiak was going to make the running game even more of a focus this season. Fast forward a few weeks into the season, and it was indeed trouble in paradise. The Broncos might have been undefeated, but Peyton Manning clearly could no longer drive the ball down the field, thus giving the Broncos too many eight man fronts for their patchwork offensive line to handle. Anderson became the fantasy bust of the season, having little competition besides for DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch to a much lesser extent.

As the weeks turned to double-digits, Manning further broke down physically and arguably mentally, as he continued to rack up the interceptions. Eventually the legend was sat down, allowing the offense to be reborn. The sacrifice of Manning allowed a younger, bigger, and stronger quarterback in Brock Osweiler to take the reigns in order to better steer a ship that already has plenty of pieces in place.

Week 12: A snow filled tundra in the thin-aired altitude of Denver – an environment in which Peyton can no longer feel his extremities – the Broncos defense, fresh quarterback, and rejuvenated running game managed to bring the undefeated Patriots into overtime. After losing the coin toss, most thought that the same script we had read time and time again was about to repeat: Tom Brady would win the overtime coin toss, methodically drive down the field, and heroically take the win on the road in order to preserve the Patriots' perfect season. Instead, the Denver defense did what it had been doing all season long, and made an important stop.

Once Osweiler and the boys took over on offense, the game developed a totally different feel. First down featured a running play for a gain of two and second, a pass that picked up seven. Third down was the moment C.J. Anderson realized the entire narrative of his season could be turned around. In a singleback set with one flanker wide to the right and a tight trips bunch to the left, Oswiler barked out Manning's famed “Omaha” signal call. The play: a power sweep to the left with zone stretch blocking and two linemen taking out defenders at the second level. Once Anderson broke past the line of scrimmage, it was clear in his head that he was going the distance no matter who was in his way. With one man to beat, and seemingly no way of getting past him, Anderson channeled all of his season-long frustrations together to punch it into another gear. He breezed by the single high free safety that wasn’t even pictured in the pre-snap television screen, propelling the Broncos to overtime victory over the undefeated Patriots.

This is not in any way an attempt to put down what Manning has done throughout his surefire Hall of Fame career, but it appears that he was holding back the offense all season long. With Osweiler under center, Denver is turning the ball over less and they are getting more production out of the ground game. Moving the pocket for the more athletic Osweiler has helped the patchwork offensive line get the job done, while they seem much more enthused when getting the chance to pin their ears back in the run game. Ultimately the loss of Manning might actually allow Anderson to return to form, giving him the chance to make these final five games a road to redemption. 

Weekly Waiver-Wire Wisdom

I clued you all in on some clutch waiver pickups in last week’s edition of the Running Back Workload, and this week should be only a little different. The names listed won’t make as big of an impact as the Week 11 crop did and has the potential to going forward. However they will serve as roster worthy players and could eventually take over a starting job.

David Johnson of the Arizona Cardinals is the exception of the other two players to come, as he is set up to be incredibly productive for the rest of the season going forward. He is slated to be the starting running back until further notice on a team with a high-powered offense and a top-flight defense. He is a first-year back out of Northern Iowa and so far as a pro he has been wildly productive on limited touches. In 54 touches Johnson has scored seven touchdowns (four rushing, three receiving), which equates to a touchdown on 13 percent of his touches – an incredibly high number. This is all excluding his 108-yard kick return touchdown that he had in the beginning of the season, making him the first player in NFL history to record a rushing, receiving and return touchdown in his first two career games. Simply put, Johnson is an explosive offensive weapon.

Fantasy owners should look to scoop him up fast, as he is the only guy left in a banged up Cardinals backfield, featuring a questionable Andre Ellington and injured reserve listed Chris Johnson.

The next back is far less guaranteed to make a huge fantasy impact, however rookie Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins has been showing some things since coming off the IR in Week 9. This season, he is averaging 7.9 yards per touch, seemingly gaining momentum as a runner and receiver each week. He struggled against the Jets last week, as many opposing runners do, but with the Dolphins all but mathematically eliminated from the playoff picture and starting running back Lamar Miller ready to hit free agency in the offseason, it might be time for Miami to get him more involved in the offense.

Ajayi – first-year man out of Boise State – features a violent running style reminiscent of Marion Barber. Considering this, he is also light on his feet and runs with very underrated vision for his size and power. In his final two seasons in college, Ajayi combined for 3,114 rushing yards and 43 touchdowns, good enough for 5.5 yards per carry. He also flashed a receiving skillset, as he caught 65 passes for 758 yards and five touchdowns. His game, in a limited workload so far this season, seems to have translated to the professional game, so with the Dolphins ready to move on from Miller and looking to see what they got in Ajayi, he might be a player to add for the rest of the season.

My bonus add is for someone who for now works only as a handcuff, but considering injury history and potential lack of success of the starter, this player might become a viable fantasy option.

Robert Turbin of the Dallas Cowboys seems to have more left in the tank than others had previously thought. In his limited appearances with the Cowboys over the last couple of games, he looks to have a solid grip on how this offense wants to operate in the zone running scheme. Contrarily, starter Darren McFadden has had his games of huge rushing numbers, but he hasn’t looked comfortable finding a hole on the stretch reads designed by the Dallas offense. Most of his rushing yards come in garbage time, while sometimes they don’t come at all. He’s the wrong scheme fit for this offense due to his below average vision, and if things continue like they did on Thanksgiving (10 carries for 11 yards), he won’t be the starter for much longer.

Turbin, on the other hand, has looked very fresh in his nine carries as a Cowboy. He has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and has been making the right cuts to keep the offense moving forward instead of the negative plays that McFadden has so often piled up. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Turbin get more work in this offense going forward, while he might be a good handcuff add considering McFadden’s well noted injury history.

Nostra-DOM-us

So the Chargers beat me again, as for the second week in a row they stepped up and thwarted my opposing running back prediction. T.J. Yeldon didn’t run on the Chargers as I expected, however anyone who took my advice in terms of how he would factor as a PPR threat couldn’t have been disappointed. I predicted four catches for 45 yards out of Yeldon on Sunday vs. San Diego, while he finished with four catches for 46 yards. Just one yard off, that’s gotta count for something, right?

Anyway, for this week, one of the sneakier plays is LeGarrette Blount, who although is not playing his best football of late, is positioned to have a good fantasy outing in Week 13. On Sunday, the Patriots will be taking on a Philadelphia Eagles team that not only has allowed over 32 points per game over their last five matchups, but also has seemingly lost confidence in their head coach.

In back-to-back outings, the Eagles have allowed 45 points to offenses that pale in comparison to the efficiency and production of the New England Patriots. One of the 45-point disasters featured a Tampa Bay offense that totaled 283 rushing yards and five offensive touchdowns. Imagine what the Patriots can do to a demoralized team whose defense can’t seem to stop a nosebleed.

With the Pats banged up at the skill position spot, expect them to rely heavily on Blount and his methodical ground pace. They are a team that almost never loses back-to-back games, and in hopes of making a league-wide statement, they will absolutely be chomping at the bit to embarrass a demoralized Philly team. Expect Blount to total at least 20 touches while scoring at least one touchdown on the ground. With him likely coming in at an affordable daily league price, he should be one of the better bargain plays of Week 13.