The Ivory Tusk – The Jets Emerging Battering Ram
After spending the first five years of his NFL career bogged down in the dreaded “running back by committee” or RBBC, the reigns have finally been taken off one of the NFL’s best kept secrets. In 2015, after four weeks of action, one spent injured, and one on a bye, the Jets' Chris Ivory – on only 83 carries – is still somehow third in the NFL in rushing with 460 yards. His 5.5 yards per carry is good enough for fifth in the league amongst qualified backs, making him one of the more difficult runners for opposing defenses to contain on a weekly basis. Looking back on things, maybe the limited reps helped Ivory as a young player, giving him adequate exposure to learn the finer points of the game, while saving his legs and unrivaled drive for his peak career years.
From even last year to 2015, Ivory has taken tremendous strides in terms of honing his craft as a three-down back. The biggest difference – new running backs coach Marcel Shipp – who according to Zach Braziller of the New York Post, has relentlessly preached patience to Ivory when regarding his approach to finding the hole. Ivory has credited Shipp, along with the Jets' revitalized offensive line and new coaching philosophy from offensive coordinator Chan Gailey.
There have been rumors of the Jets looking to limit his touches going forward, but coming off of a Week 6 performance in which he totaled 196 all-purpose yards, that doesn’t seem likely, especially when you take into account that he is also averaging a gaudy 115 rushing yards per game. It would just seem irresponsible to try to slow down a guy who is drawing Marshawn Lynch comparisons and is even being referred to as “the best running back in the league” by teammates.
Going forward things might get tougher for Ivory, as the Jets have faced a rather weak schedule thus far. Week 7 on the road against the Patriots will provide the perfect test for Ivory and the Jets, as the Pats have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Backfield Shakeup
As the midway point of the season nears, teams are starting to reevaluate their backfield philosophies. Whether it is by choice or not, there are four key teams that are either toying with their running back reps splits or are changing their starters all-together.
Chiefs
In Kansas City – obviously not by choice – the Chiefs are going forward with a different lead dog in the backfield. As mentioned all the way back in my AFC Regular Season Preview article, I claimed that the dark horse candidate to serve as Jamaal Charles’ true handcuff was Charcandrick West. I noted that West, better than assumed second stringer Knile Davis, possessed the well rounded and ultimately unglamorous traits needed to be effective on an every-down basis in the NFL. Apparently I wasn’t insane to think this, as now – with Charles done for the season – West dominated Davis in the snap count department (43-to-19) and out-touched him 10-to-6 in Week 6 against the Vikings.
West obviously will not be able to replace even half of the production that Charles brought to the KC offense, but going forward he appears to be the Chiefs back to own due to his seemingly unbreakable grip on the majority of offensive reps and current lead in overall touches.
Cowboys
Out in Dallas the growing sentiment is that the experiment has expired. Joseph Randle, although not totally busting, isn’t proving to be the guy they had hoped he would be coming into the season. Two weeks ago, after disobeying coach Jason Garrett’s orders of running through the goal line rather than leaping over it, many now fear the end is near for Randle’s run as the unrivaled starter.
Most of you reading up to this point probably expect me to say that Dallas’ plan is to go forward with Darren McFadden as the lead back in Week 7 against the Giants, but surprisingly to some, that is not the case. Enter Christine Michael – a running back acquired by the Cowboys from the Seahawks prior to Week 1 – who with only two active weeks so far this season has seen a mere two offensive touches in as many snaps. From the outside looking in, it might seem hard to believe that someone so inexperienced with the team would leap over veterans on the depth chart, but according to multiple Cowboys insiders, Michael appears to be the guy headed into Week 7. Dallas insider Bryan Broaddus, when asked via Twitter if it was true that Michael led the backfield in practice reps during the bye week, replied “True”. This seems like something that fantasy owners should take note of, as it is abundantly clear the Cowboys love to run the football.
What Michael brings to the table is a combination of speed and devastating power. He also possesses a prototype body for the position, surprisingly nimble feet, and patience as a runner – a must for any back in the Cowboys' zone running scheme. His production is limited at this point in his career, but Dallas is confident that with their dominating offensive line and a change at quarterback that they can get Michael on track to being a competent NFL running back. This doesn’t spell the end for Randle or McFadden in terms of fantasy production, but the feeling is pretty clear the Cowboys plan on featuring Michael on the early downs, with McFadden on third, and Randle rotating in spell situations... Adjust your lineups accordingly.
Packers
The Packers are experiencing an entirely different issue than the rest. I’m not sure if you have heard yet, but Eddie Lacy has probably been the biggest fantasy bust of 2015. A player who many had pegged as the No. 1 pick in preseason fantasy drafts, Lacy has done virtually nothing in terms of production. Most people aren’t all over him like they were on DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson because he hasn’t been healthy all season long, yet insists on playing through the pain if for no other reason than to scare defenses. As the weeks have gone on, Lacy’s role has diminished, while James Starks is developing into the Packers' feature guy. In Week 6, although their snap splits were pretty even at 28 for Starks and 20 for Lacy, their touch total was pretty uneven at 11-to-6 in Starks’ favor, indicating the Packers are aware Lacy probably shouldn’t be playing through his injury. Against the Chargers in Week 6, with only 11 touches, Starks broke out for 117 total yards and two touchdowns. In stark contrast, pun not intended, Lacy – with his six touches – only totaled 20 yards and zero touchdowns.
Headed into the bye week, the Packers are hopeful Lacy can use the time to get healthy. It is unclear if the week off will do the trick, but I anticipate we won’t really be able to tell until Week 10, as the Packers coming out of the bye take on the Broncos and Panthers in consecutive weeks. With neither back likely to have success during those two weeks, fantasy owners will have to watch closely: If Lacy looks fully healthy then he might be a prime “buy low” candidate headed into Week 10, as the Packers' schedule lightens up significantly the rest of the way. If he doesn’t, and Starks still is getting the majority of the touches, it might be time to cut ties with Lacy and begin starting Starks – a player who most Lacy owners drafted in the beginning of the season to handcuff the hefty back.
Broncos
Although I have discussed Denver in length in previous editions, I find it necessary to notify readers that for the first time in six weeks Ronnie Hillman surpassed C.J. Anderson in total snaps for the Broncos offense (44-to-40). Also for the first time this season Hillman received more touches than Anderson and for the second time in three weeks, he out-gained him in terms of rushing and total yards. All indications point to Hillman being the back in favor going forward for the undefeated Broncos, despite Anderson being a first-round pick in fantasy drafts this preseason.
Nostra-DOM-us
I know this is supposed to be a “Week in Review” article, but I’m looking into the future here and predicting a big week on the ground from Todd Gurley.
Having faced a pretty tough schedule so far – winning some and losing some – the Rams are certainly battle tested coming out of their Week 6 bye. In Week 7 they will be taking on an opponent in the Cleveland Browns, who although are definitely competitive, boast the league’s worst run defense in terms of yards allowed and yards per carry. The Rams, on the other hand, feature rookie running back Gurley, who leads all qualified running backs with 5.7 yards per carry and is averaging 104 rushing yards per game. With the Browns' offense entirely reliant on their passing attack and the Rams' defense built around one of the most talented and expensive defensive lines in the game, I see a long and tough road trip for Josh McCown and Co.
With the Rams' defensive line potentially winning the battle against the Browns' high-powered passing attack, Gurley should have plenty of attempts to run wild on the porous Cleveland defense in the comfort of his own home dome. Gurley seems to be a great pick in daily leagues, holding an affordable price of only $5,000 on DraftKings and a bit steeper of a price tag of $7,400 on FanDuel.