Coca-Cola 600

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Last week provided a break in the action, as it was the Sprint All-Star race and the Sprint Showdowns prior to that. While they were not points races nor was there DFS games to be played, it did give us a sneak peak at how drivers could perform in the Coca-Cola 600 when the race actually counts for something more than just cold hard cash. Two things to keep in mind though about the results for the All-Star race, one there was a different aero package on the cars and second, the format of the race was more or less a sprint most of the night and nothing close to the 400 laps that will be run on Sunday.

Prior to the All-Star festivities, the drivers put on quite a show at Dover with great passing going on until the final lap and even down to the last turn of the race. Kyle Larson put together his best performance in a race but came up just short of Matt Kenseth, who was able to nab his first win of the season. After finishing the Monster Mile, we now move to the headquarters of NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

This is another 1.5-mile circuit like we saw with Kansas and Texas and Atlanta before it but Charlotte tends to be a little bit more open to using multiple lines than those other tracks are and it’s also the longest race of the NASCAR season. Winners are Charlotte have come from the front five starting spots 84% of the time but as you’ll notice with the picks, there is only a single driver from the top-five in both lineups combined. Value was more easily gotten elsewhere this week as most of the drivers in top-five, Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski, just don’t offer the upside required to put them into a lineup and in most cases the price made them a risky proposition.

Staying away from Henrick drivers as much as possible, save for Kasey Kahne, was a priority of mine as they have struggled mightily at the track in recent years having finished worse than they qualified or not even finishing at all in some cases. It is tough to stay away from Jimmy Johnson, but since his run of championships, he has been highly inconsistent at specifically Charlotte.

DFS PLAYBOOK

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Kevin Harvick$10,500Another track that Harvick has been dominant at with three wins in the last 10 races and four straight top-10's. Well worth the top price this week.
Kyle Busch$10,400He has 10 top-5 finishes at Charlotte in his career and is coming off an 81-point performance at Kansas (a similar track). Starting 16th helps his cause too.
Carl Edwards$10,300Edwards has been excellent on the track in the last two years and is the defending winner from the Fall 2015 race. Three rough weeks should be put behind him here.
Jimmie Johnson$10,200J.J. has seven career wins at CMS including one of the last four races run but he did have two bad finishes (39 and 40 a year ago). Has been up and down in 2016.
Matt Kenseth$9,900Genreally a top-10 finisher at Charlotte and won both poles last year at the track. He is fresh off a win at Dover but that was by far his best race of the year.
Martin Truex Jr.$9,800Truex Jr. is the pole sitter for the race Sunday and has had a very good year to this point. He can lead a lot of laps but he is risk in cash games sitting on the pole.
Joey Logano$9,700Logano won the All-Star race at Charlotte last weekend (though it was a modified aero package) but has been up and down this season making him a better fit in GPP.
Kurt Busch$9,000One of the most consistent drivers on the track this season and has a good history at CMS. 13 top-10's in 15 races this year make him a great play in either format.
Kyle Larson$8,400Larson is coming off a huge 103 point performance at Dover. He has one of the best positional differences at CMS and starting 24th should sneak him some points.
Kasey Kahne$8,000Kahne is a top-value play this week. There is too much to like about his starting position and great history at the track (4 wins, 3 in the 600) not to put him in the six.
Ryan Blaney$7,500Blaney has produced 40+ points in four straight weeks and five out of six including one at last weeks All-Star races. He has performed well on similar tracks this year.
Jamie McMurray$7,300McMurray is one of the top-two value plays this week with him being a top-five driver at the track and owner of the best positional differential of any driver at 14.25.
Clint Bowyer$6,800Bowyer has been rolling of late with four 40+ point showings in the last six including two 60-point races. He is a mid-level driver at best but provides upside on budget.
Danica Patrick$6,400She has been consistent. Scoring 30+ points in every race but two since the AutoClub 400. It's hard to find better options than her at this price point.
Michael Annett$5,100Bargain hunting for sneaky points is what Annett brings to the table. He has only gone over 20 points twice but once was last week on this track.

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

Draft Kings Cash 
Kevin Harvick$10,500
Kyle Busch$10,400
Carl Edwards$10,300
Jamie McMurray$7,300
Landon Cassill$5,900
Michael Annett$5,100
  
Total$49,500

Cash lineup construction, as always, was about maximizing the point total while avoiding a low-floor. In Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards we have selected three of the top performers all season as well as three of the top-10 active drivers at CMS plus four wins in the last 10 races between Harvick and Edwards. Their qualifying positions also help their case as there are plenty of spots for the three of them to move up into and gain a lot of position related points. Jamie McMurray is one of the best value plays of the week and owns the best positional differential among active drivers at 14.25 (starts in 24th, finishes at 9.75). Landon Cassill and Michael Annett are both budget-friendly plays who offer surprising upside but won’t single-handedly put you in the money.

Draft Kings GPP 
Kevin Harvick$10,500
Martin Truex Jr.$9,800
Kurt Busch$9,000
Kasey Kahne$8,000
Ryan Blaney$7,500
Michael Annett$5,100
  
Total$49,900

This week’s GPP lineup is centered around picking risk-reward drivers that can really outperform their averages to this point. Kevin Harvick once again anchors the lineup as he has been too dominant this season to leave off and Charlotte is a great layout for him. Martin Truex Jr. is the first risk-reward play as he is the pole sitter so position points could be tricky but he should rack up laps led and fastest laps points for much of the race. Kurt Busch has been consistent this season and is a low-risk, high-reward play since he has a great history at CMS and his qualifying speed was actually comparable to the 7th and 8th place cars despite starting in 13th in the grid. Kasey Kahne is the only Hendrick Motorsports driver I am playing this week, as he has been steady over the last several races at Charlotte while the rest of his teammates have been lackluster. Kahne has four wins to his credit with one coming in the last 10 races at the track and three of them in this race. Ryan Blaney and Michael Annett is where the higher risk comes in as these two are potential bust candidates but Blaney could also show up and produce 55 or more points.