After a week off for the All-Star race at Charlotte, it’s time to get back into the groove of things with the Coca-Cola 600. The first official race of the season at Charlotte Motor Speedway is also the longest, in terms of miles raced, on the NASCAR calendar. We are also back at a 1.5-mile circuit which gives us a ton of data to pull from. CMS, like a typical track of this distance, provides plenty of ways to get around a lap so drivers with the ability to move through traffic are good plays.
Let’s look at the data for Charlotte.
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Kevin Harvick | 9.3 | 3.50 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 288 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 127.4 | 5.80 | 72.00 | 18.00 |
Carl Edwards | 10.8 | 4.75 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 95.2 | 6.05 | 7.75 | 1.94 |
Joey Logano | 6.5 | 7.50 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 244 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 109.4 | -1.00 | 61.00 | 15.25 |
Jimmie Johnson | 10.5 | 24.25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 166 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 99.3 | -13.75 | 41.50 | 10.38 |
Jamie McMurray | 24.0 | 9.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 88.0 | 14.25 | 9.75 | 2.44 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 15.8 | 11.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 102.0 | 4.05 | 32.75 | 8.19 |
Matt Kenseth | 9.0 | 17.00 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 131 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 93.2 | -8.00 | 32.75 | 8.19 |
Denny Hamlin | 4.8 | 10.75 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 75 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 101.2 | -5.95 | 18.75 | 4.69 |
Kyle Busch | 6.8 | 11.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 100.1 | -4.45 | 11.25 | 2.81 |
Kurt Busch | 14.8 | 16.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 120 | 0 | 5 | 40 | 1 | 98.2 | -1.70 | 30.00 | 7.50 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 11.5 | 17.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 91.4 | -6.00 | 4.25 | 1.06 |
Greg Biffle | 11.0 | 16.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 73.0 | -5.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brad Keselowski | 9.5 | 10.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 98.7 | -1.00 | 13.50 | 3.38 |
Ryan Newman | 19.0 | 10.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 82.5 | 8.25 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
Austin Dillon | 19.3 | 13.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 85.3 | 6.30 | 1.75 | 0.44 |
Aric Almirola | 14.5 | 15.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 22 | 0 | 78.5 | -0.50 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
Kasey Kahne | 18.8 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 1 | 74.3 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Kyle Larson | 22.3 | 17.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 80.1 | 4.80 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
Paul Menard | 19.0 | 25.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 71.0 | -6.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Clint Bowyer | 19.3 | 22.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 75.5 | -3.45 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
A.J. Allmendinger | 23.3 | 20.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 66.7 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ryan Blaney | 16.0 | 28.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 1 | 76.7 | -12.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tony Stewart | 17.5 | 20.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 0 | 69.3 | -2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Chase Elliott | 28.0 | 18.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 66.5 | 10.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 26.3 | 25.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 37 | 0 | 61.6 | 1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Danica Patrick | 15.5 | 26.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 39 | 1 | 61.4 | -11.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Casey Mears | 29.5 | 24.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 59.6 | 5.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Trevor Bayne | 24.7 | 23.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 | 0 | 53.2 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
David Gilliland | 34.5 | 33.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 43 | 1 | 42.2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
Michael Annett | 37.0 | 29.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 33 | 0 | 41.4 | 7.50 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
David Ragan | 23.8 | 35.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 41 | 2 | 52.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brian Scott | 19.0 | 32.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 48.7 | -13.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Michael McDowell | 29.5 | 30.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 31 | 0 | 45.0 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Alex Bowman | 30.0 | 30.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 33 | 0 | 43.0 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Landon Cassill | 34.5 | 30.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 39 | 0 | 43.0 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cole Whitt | 35.8 | 30.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 38 | 1 | 40.0 | 5.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Reed Sorenson | 37.7 | 34.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 42 | 1 | 38.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 41.0 | 31.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 34 | 0 | 36.0 | 9.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Josh Wise | 37.7 | 39.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 41 | 2 | 32.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on 1.5 Mile Tracks
Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
Jimmie Johnson | 14.3 | 12.04 | 28 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 837 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 102.8 | 2.26 | 209.25 | 7.47 |
Kevin Harvick | 7.6 | 9.07 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 25 | 1,732 | 4 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 118.6 | -1.47 | 433.00 | 15.46 |
Joey Logano | 6.9 | 9.46 | 28 | 4 | 16 | 19 | 25 | 1,078 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 109.8 | -2.56 | 269.50 | 9.63 |
Kyle Busch | 11.5 | 7.79 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 658 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 106.4 | 3.71 | 164.50 | 6.85 |
Brad Keselowski | 6.9 | 9.54 | 28 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 26 | 1,289 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 108.0 | -2.64 | 322.25 | 11.51 |
Carl Edwards | 11.1 | 10.82 | 28 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 91.9 | 0.28 | 53.25 | 1.90 |
Denny Hamlin | 11.9 | 14.86 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 292 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 91.3 | -2.96 | 73.00 | 2.61 |
Kasey Kahne | 15.6 | 16.11 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 85.5 | -0.51 | 20.00 | 0.71 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15.3 | 12.71 | 28 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 132 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 94.7 | 2.59 | 33.00 | 1.18 |
Matt Kenseth | 13.9 | 12.04 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 22 | 504 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 98.0 | 1.86 | 126.00 | 4.67 |
Kurt Busch | 10.7 | 14.31 | 26 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 360 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 4 | 92.8 | -3.61 | 90.00 | 3.46 |
Ryan Newman | 12.2 | 11.32 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 89.5 | 0.88 | 5.75 | 0.21 |
Martin Truex Jr. | 12.0 | 12.89 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 619 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 96.7 | -0.89 | 154.75 | 5.53 |
Kyle Larson | 14.7 | 17.61 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 85.2 | -2.91 | 9.50 | 0.34 |
Carl Edwards-Carl is one of the best drivers in recent years at Charlotte, trailing only Kevin Harvick and hasn’t finished outside the top-8 in the last four races. He is pretty affordable this week at $10,300 and with the way that Joe Gibbs cars have been running this year, it’s hard to keep them out of the lineup. The only downside to Edwards is that he hasn’t led a whole lot of laps at CMS to this point.
Joey Logano-Coming off the All-Star race win, he is primed and ready to go for a second straight race at Charlotte, though a little different format is involved here. He is one of four drivers to have split the wins in the last four races there, not including the win last week. Logano is also second to only Kevin Harvick for laps led with 244 giving him an average of 15.25 points/race just from that alone and at less than $10,000 this, it’s hard to turn down the chance to put him in for Sunday.
Jamie McMurray-McMurray has had a very solid season so far this year averaging better than 31 FPPR as a middle-level option each week. And now we come to one of his best tracks in Charlotte where he is a top-five play and has the best positional differential by far in the field. He hasn’t led many laps (39 to be exact) but in the last four races, he hasn’t finished below 19th.
Kurt Busch-Kurt might not get the talk that his younger brother does, but he is equally as talented as a driver and fares well at Charlotte in the top-10 realm. In 15 races this season he has 13 top-10 finishes and is posting 45 FPPR, which ranks fifth amongst active drivers. Stewart-Haas cars perform well at CMS to boot.
Ryan Newman-He owns the second best positional differential of any driver at better than eight spots in the right direction per race. He has been hit and miss this season though so Newman has really been more of a GPP play each week with just three top-10’s in 15 races. In the past four races at Charlotte, he has finished each one between sixth and 15th place.