Geico 500

Talladega Superspeedway

Carl Edwards had himself another big day at Richmond and got some help thanks to a late pit stop that shuffled the order in his favor. It did, however, still take a last-second bump draft to pass teammate Kyle Busch for a second straight win. It’s one thing to be great at short tracks, it’s another animal altogether going to the 2.5-mile loops.

‘Dega looms large in both size and scare factor as it is the longest (2.66 miles) track on schedule and always produces the most drama as far as crashes go. Every year there is the “Big One” that drivers have to avoid in the middle of the race when four-wide racing becomes prevalent and takes down numerous drivers at once. This week the strategy is take to the drivers who have the best long-run speeds and the fewest DNFs. Despite its reputation there are relatively few cautions, averaging five a race, meaning there is a lot of green lap racing, 85% to be exact. Past performances also hold truer at Talladega giving us solid data to pull from.

DriverDraft KingsDescription
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$10,300Has the most wins and top-5 finishes of any driver in the lineup at Talladega. Went under 40 points for only the second time all season last week
Carl Edwards$10,100A top-15 driver at 'Dega in the last two years and is coming off two-straight wins. Also had a very good race at Daytona, the other restrictor plate race
Denny Hamlin$10,000He is a top-3 driver at the 2.66 mile track and has a win and two top-10 finishes there in the last two year. He also has the best positional difference at RP tracks
Jimmie Johnson$9,800J.J. has led the most laps at Talladega and has the best Loop Data Driver Rating in the last three years. He is a top-10 driver on the track as well
Joey Logano$9,600Logano is the last winner at 'Dega having won the Fall 2015 race during the Chase. He also has the second most wins and third best postion difference on RP tracks
Kevin Harvick$9,400Harvick is a solid play at the track where his usually fast car can really run well. He doesn't start well on average but does wind up with the highest average finish
Kyle Busch$9,200Kyle lends himself to GPP formats this week as he does not have a particularly strong history at the track. He should be angry about last week's finish though
Brad Keselowsi$9,000Brad has a win and two top-5's at the track in the last two years but has been a bit hit and miss this season meaning he should be played in GPP formats only
Martin Truex Jr.$8,900Truex Jr. has been very solid the first four weeks and the last three weeks and is heading to a track he does well at. Daytona, another RP race, was his best of the year
Austin Dillon$8,600He has been down in points the last three weeks but when they aren't running the short tracks, he is very solid. His best race came at Daytona in the same setup
Chase Elliot$8,400In his first time at the track in a Spring Cup car he won the pole. Pole sitters can be worth a play but you will give up positional points if they don't win
Ryan Newman$7,500Newman's two best races of the year came at this price point including his best at Daytona. He has a good history here as a top-8 driver in the field.
Paul Menard$6,800Menard has been solid at this price point all season and has only had one race under 20 points. Menard also has one top-5 and three top-10's at 'Dega in the last four
Regan Smith$5,900Smith is a budget play for GPP formats as he has struggled of late but had his best performance, 59 points, at Daytona in a similar RP setup
Cole Whitt$5,000The cheapest driver on the board this week but performs solidly at Talladega having the second best position difference of any driver in the last two years at the track

84% of winners have come from the top-5 starting spots in the races’ history and 43% of the winners have been Chevrolet, not to mention how well Hendrick Motorsports cars run at the circuit.

Draft Kings Cash 
Dale Earnhardt Jr.$10,300
Carl Edwards$10,100
Kevin Harvick$9,400
Martin Truex Jr.$8,900
Landon Cassill$5,800
Cole Whitt$5,000
  
Total$49,500

The cash game lineup this week is predicted on guys who spend most of the race at the front of the pack and therefore give us the best chance of having them finish the race. Five of the six drivers are in the top-16 historically on the track including Dale Jr. who has the most wins, top-5’s, and top-10’s on the track of any active driver. There is room in the budget to pivot to Jimmie Johnson from Kevin Harvick if you want another HMS Chevy in the top-5. However I will be playing the upside play with Harvick who is cheaper and has outperformed Johnson this season.

Draft Kings GPP 
Jimmie Johnson$9,800
Kevin Harvick$9,400
Kyle Busch$9,200
Martin Truex Jr.$8,900
Paul Menard$6,800
Regan Smith$5,900
  
Total$50,000

For the GPP lineup you will notice there are more upside plays with Johnson being the highest starting driver. All of the drivers selected had good finishes at Daytona, a good comparison as the Restrictor Plate setup is the same on both tracks, with them all finishing in the top-18 including four in the top-8. All six of them move through the field well at Talladega, which gives the all-important positional points a boost. Pivoting from J.J. to Logano could all work given Logano is the latest winner there but I prefer to run with a Johnson seeing as he has shown better speed this week.