Fantasy Football Trade Market: October 14, 2016

Quarterback

Cam Newton, Panthers

Very few people—experts and fans alike—predicted that the Carolina Panthers would start a pathetic 1-4. This is a team that steamrolled through the NFC last year only to lose to Denver in Super Bowl 50. While the team’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good as last season—especially in the secondary—Cam Newton certainly hasn’t pulled his weight either. Through four games, Newton has completed just 58 percent of his passes for 974 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions.

The good news is that Newton has a career completion percentage of 59.5, meaning that he isn’t doing something abnormal. He’s still running the ball at a 5.1 YPC clip, which is slightly down from his career average of 5.3. The biggest difference we are seeing is the lack of touchdowns and the increase in interceptions. Newton had a ratio of 35:10 last year and will need to do incredible work going forward to even come close to matching it.

Still, with his upside and the mobility of his legs, Newton is a stunning buy low opportunity. He was the first quarterback off the board in most fantasy drafts, but he hasn’t even come close to returning value. He has been limited in practice this week, but is still in concussion protocol. If Newton is cleared—which many are expecting—he should be able to get back on track immediately against a rotten New Orleans secondary. Between the head injury and mediocre numbers to date, your window to buy Newton will close after this Sunday.

Verdict: BUY. It’s been a slow start for Cam, but the passing touchdowns are coming. He’s the biggest game changer at the quarterback position and will need strong showings going forward if the Panthers want to return to the playoffs.

Running Back

Terrance West, Ravens

You know, I have never been a fan of Terrance West. For all of the Browns’ flaws as an organization, they had the right idea when they traded both West and Trent Richardson. Of course, the question should be asked—why did they draft them in the first place? The answer is irrelevant now, but it doesn’t hide the fact that West just isn’t that good of a football player.

The Ravens recently cut Justin Forsett in an attempt to get younger at the position, but talent wise, West is below both Javorius “Buck” Allen and rookie Kenneth Dixon. Ultimately the Ravens would prefer that Dixon become their running back of the future. The jury is still out of West, but it appears that John Harbaugh and company isn’t fully committed. Looking back at Sunday’s game against the Redskins, West ran wild in the first-half, but finished the game with just 11 touches. It’s unknown why the Ravens soured on West in the second half. Nevertheless, West has floated around the NFL for a reason and that reason is that he’s just not all that good. If you’re looking to move him in a package deal, now is the time. If now, I suspect you’ll be dropping him within a couple of weeks.

Verdict: SELL. West had a couple of plus matchups against the Raiders and Redskins, but things get tougher starting this week against the Giants.

Wide Receiver

Willie Snead, Saints

Every week there is a ton of buzz surrounding particular players. Whether it is a great matchup on paper, prior success, or even something on the negative side, certain players get play all week long. One name that hasn’t popped recently is Willie Snead. After hauling in nine receptions for 172 yards and a touchdown during Week 1, Snead has fallen off the radar due to a bye week, an injury, and a lack of overall production.

We all know that the Saints love to throw the ball. Drew Brees leads the league in yardage practically every year, so you know he is going to be slinging the rock 35-40 times per game. Much like Tom Brady, Brees likes to distribute the football all over the field. While that drags down the value of New Orleans’ wide receivers, the dirty little secret is that Snead is going to come at a much larger discount than his counterpart Brandin Cooks. Cooks has 18 receptions through four games compared to Snead’s 15 in three games. Keep in mind that Cooks was a second round pick in PPR leagues while Snead fell into the fifth and sixth rounds. Snead will most certainly have a few uninspiring games this year, but he is dirt-cheap right now and appears to be fully healthy. He makes for a great buy low.

Verdict: BUY. Snead’s situation is quite appealing, but his current discount price is borderline arousing. Being in an offense that constantly throws the ball makes this buy low a no brainer.

 

Tight End

Martellus Bennett, Patriots

Last week I recommended buying Rob Gronkowski, so naturally Martellus Bennett scored three touchdowns against the Browns. Listen, Tom Brady likes to spread the ball around, but his absolute favorite target is Gronk. Sunday’s game against Cleveland, will, without a shred of doubt, go down as Bennett’s best game of the season. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a serviceable tight end, but he’s most certainly reached his peak. Gronkowski is going to see the lion’s share of the targets at the tight end position, so that will directly eat into Bennett’s value. Most fantasy owners are going to realize this, making a trade a tough sell, but persuasion is a powerful tool.

Verdict: SELL. There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but none bigger than Gronk. He is clearly the TE1 in New England, though it will be interested to see if Bennett will slide into the role of Aaron Hernandez before he went to federal prison. I’m banking on that not happening, which is why moving Bennett makes sense.