Fantasy Football Trade Market: October 6, 2016

Quarterback

Andrew Luck, Colts

Look, I know a lot of fantasy owners love Andrew Luck. On any given week, he can put up the type of performance you talk about two months later. The problem, though, is that this is starting to feel like a repeat of 2015. Luck has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but it is said to be minor. The Colts’ offensive line is in shambles as evident by the fact that Luck has been sacked 15 freaking times, leading the league in that category.

Still, his numbers are solid. He has completed 62 percent of his passes and thrown for over 1,100 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. Now is a great time to pivot away from Luck, especially if you have a quarterback like Matt Ryan rotting away on your bench. I do not suspect things improving for the Colts anytime soon. Without Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis does not have a physically imposing wide receiver to give opposing defenses fits. On top of that, it is fair to speculate that the Colts do not have complete and total faith in Chuck Pagano and his staff. This just isn’t a good situation for Luck and one that I would want to avoid going forward.

Verdict: SELL. The numbers are solid, so Luck is most certainly tradable right now. He makes for a great piece if you need an upgrade at RB or WR.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon, Chargers

As a whole, the Chargers have been decimated by injuries this year and we are only four weeks into the season. Thankfully, Melvin Gordon has stayed healthy and has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. But, these are surface results. Gordon leads all running backs with six touchdowns; he didn’t reach the end zone a single time in 2015. Outside of his touchdowns, though, Gordon has been a very average running back. Now, taking away his touchdowns would be unfair. It is, of course, part of the game. On the flip side, it’s almost a guaranteed certainty that they will not continue at such a rapid pace. What really bothers me is the fact that Gordon averaged just 2.0 YPC over the last two weeks against two porous run defenses in the Colts and Saints.

The Chargers are not a good football team. With two games against the Broncos, plus the Raiders and Falcons over the next four weeks, the schedule gets much tougher. On paper, we are looking at a team that could be 1-7 after Week 8. With San Diego likely playing from behind against superior teams, they will have to air it out and that doesn’t bode well for Gordon.

Verdict: SELL. It’s good to see Gordon have a strong start to the season, but much of his production for fantasy owners is tied to his touchdowns. He’s been a plodding back the last two weeks and the touchdowns will dry up. Sell while you can.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

Geez, oh man. Everyone really seems to be piling on OBJ as of late. After his performance against the Vikings on Monday Night Football, the hate has reached a fever pitch. Keep in mind, this all dates back to Beckham’s emotionally fueled game against Josh Norman and the Panthers last year and has really taken on a life of its own. You can love OBJ or hate OBJ, it doesn’t really matter; what cannot be denied is his elite talent. For the record, I am #TeamOBJ.

Through the first four weeks of the season, Beckham has 22 receptions for 303 yards with zero touchdowns. Let’s rewind a full calendar year and see where Beckham was standing after four weeks. Well, what do you know—24 receptions, 307 yards, and two touchdowns. I think you know where this is going. Yes, OBJ is having a slow start, but we literally saw the same thing happen a season ago. He’s been targeted 39 times through four games, so it’s just a matter of time before the monster games start adding up.

Verdict: BUY. Beckham Jr. is an elite talent, but he is making fantasy owners nervous. Given his outbursts on the sidelines and his lack of big numbers through four games, his price will never be cheaper this season. Make it your mission this week to acquire OBJ.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

It wasn’t that long ago when Jimmy Graham was a borderline first-round pick. He was in a high-powered Saints offense where he caught 85-plus passes from 2011-14 with double-digit touchdowns in all but one season (he scored nine TDs in 2012.) When Graham arrived in Seattle, he looked like a horrible fit. He played in just 11 games last year with 48 receptions, 605 yards, and two touchdowns. That’s the kind of production we expect from someone like Zach Miller.

Fast forward a year and it appears as though Seattle has finally figured out how to incorporate Graham into the offense. He has back-to-back 100 yards games and was targeted nine and eight times, respectively. There are still many that won’t buy into Graham’s strong start, but remember, he was the top player at his position just two or three years ago. Outside of Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks do not have an exceptional wide receiving corps. Graham adds another layer and should continue to be an important part of Seattle’s passing game.

Verdict: BUY or HOLD. Count me as a Graham believer. The Seahawks have finally incorporated Graham into the offense in a meaningful way and it should pay off in a big way going forward.