Finding Value in the Draft By Using Average Draft Position

Finding value in fantasy drafts is crucial in building a successful fantasy squad. These are players that are falling in drafts despite producing fantasy numbers that are a lot better than their average draft position suggests. Getting a player that produces third round value in the sixth round, is what transforms a good fantasy squad into a dominate fantasy squad. Target these players below in all fantasy formats because they will perform at a high level while being superb value picks.

(Average draft position based on ESPN Live Draft results on 10/20/14)

Goran Dragic PG, Phoenix Suns (32)- This is a top 20 player that is free falling in drafts for no reason whatsoever. He had the highest field goal percentage (50.5%) of any point guard last season. He put up almost identical numbers on a per game basis as Kyrie Irving, whose average draft position is 17. However, Dragic is less of an injury risk than Irving and he does not have to worry about a loss of production because of better players coming to his team like Irving does. That is why we have Dragic ranked inside the top 20 for rotisserie leagues and right outside the top 20 for total points leagues. Feel confident in drafting Dragic in the middle or end of the second round in drafts.

DeMar DeRozan SG/SF, Toronto Raptors(44)- It is insulting how low his ADP is because this guy performed at an elite level last season and is only going to get better this season. He was tied for ninth overall with 22.7 points per game and his eight free throw attempts per game was the seventh highest amount of attempts in the NBA (shot 82.4 percent from the charity stripe). He also averaged 4.3 rebounds and four assists per game, which is solid as well. He has a legitimate chance of averaging 25 points with five rebounds/assists per game this season. This is a top 25 player that is definitely worth a third round pick and is an absolute steal in the fourth round of drafts.

David Lee PF, Golden State Warriors(56)- Six players in the NBA averaged 18 points, nine rebounds, while shooting 50 percent or better from the field: Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins (shot 49.6 percent, but will round up in this case), Al Jefferson, Blake Griffin, and David Lee. All of those players are getting drafted in the first or second round except for David Lee. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not worth a second or third round pick, but he’s definitely worth a fourth round pick and has no business falling to the fifth round in drafts. Give your fantasy squad an advantage by drafting him in the fifth round and he's worth reaching for in the fourth round as well.

 

Pau Gasol PF/C, Chicago Bulls (59)- The Spaniard is going to be playing for a new team this season, the Chicago Bulls, but will put up the same type of elite numbers he’s been producing his entire career. His new teammate, Joakim Noah, averaged 12.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game last season and has an ADP of 28. Meanwhile, Gasol averaged 17.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game, yet, is being drafted almost 30 picks later than Noah. Why is that? My best guess is that people think Gasol’s old age of 34 is going to hinder him this season. Otherwise, it makes no sense why he keeps falling in drafts. This is a player that is going to be drafted in the fifth or sixth round of drafts that will put up the same, if not better, numbers than most third round picks.

 

Roy Hibbert C, Indiana Pacers(76)- People are sleeping on Hibbert because he averaged just under 11 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season. However, they don’t realize that his 2.2 blocks per game was the fourth highest per game rate in the NBA. Also, he’s going to bounce back this season, especially since the team is going to rely on him more with Paul George sidelined for the entire season. Expect his stats to jump back up to almost 13 points and nine rebounds he averaged per game in 2011-12. He’s one of the best bargains rotisserie drafts.

 

Brandon Knight PG, Milwaukee Bucks (94)- People seem to have lost faith in the starting point guard for the Bucks (not Giannas Antetokounmpo), despite the fact he averaged 17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.5 three-pointers made, and one steal per game last season. Those are great numbers and are right inline with Kemba Walker's production on a per game basis last season(Walker’s ADP is 42). He’s one of our favorite players to target in the eighth or ninth round in drafts because the assists numbers are only going to get better and his playing time is going to stay around 33 minutes per game.

Tobias Harris SF/PF, Orlando Magic (100)- No reason a player that averages basically 15 points and seven rebounds with a solid field goal (46.4) and free throw (80) percentage should fall so far in drafts.

Carlos Boozer PF, L.A. Lakers (111)- He had the worst season of his career last season, excluding his rookie year, because the Bulls decreased his minutes dramatically and played Taj Gibson more than Boozer during the last couple months of the season.He still managed to average close to 14 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Expect him to bounce back this season with the Lakers as he’s going to be their second best player and second scoring option behind Kobe Bryant. Booze Cruise is going to average close to his career per game averages which are 16.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, with a 53.2 field goal percentage. Those are Zach Randolph type of numbers that can be had at a cheaper price. Also, he’s a missed a total of nine games in the past three season, so the injury concern is way overblown.

Trey Burke PG, Utah Jazz (113)- Talked about him in the draft guide so going to keep this simple. He’s going to go a lot higher in drafts that have savvy owners because he will average close to 14 points, six plus assists, one steal, and 1.5 three-pointers made while shooting close to 90 percent from the free throw line. Starting point guards that produce those type of numbers usually get drafted in the seventh or eighth round, not in the double-digit rounds that Trey Burke is getting drafted at.