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With six teams lost to Thanksgiving Day games, this Sunday’s main contest is down 8 teams when you consider Monday night as well. There are plenty of prime fantasy targets no longer in play including Dez Bryant, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell, Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Antonio Brown just to name a few. There’s a good chance that pay lines will be lower totaled overall and tighter than usual. Therefore, it becomes a week about getting the QB right and hitting on a sleeper in tournaments at WR if you are going to find separation. Let’s get set the QB record straight and let he Fantasy Alarm Playbook give you the receiving names to target.
Here are the top 20 salaried QB’s on FanDuel ranked with RPVPD for Sunday’s Main Contest:
FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar | |
20 | 0.106 | 7200 | $360 | 0.160 | |
23.1 | 0.278 | 8600 | $372 | 0.131 | |
24.3 | 0.344 | 9100 | $374 | 0.126 | |
18.9 | 0.045 | 7100 | $376 | 0.123 | |
18.9 | 0.045 | 7200 | $381 | 0.111 | |
22.8 | 0.261 | 8700 | $382 | 0.109 | |
19.7 | 0.090 | 7800 | $396 | 0.076 | |
19.6 | 0.084 | 7900 | $403 | 0.059 | |
20.5 | 0.134 | 8300 | $405 | 0.055 | |
17.8 | -0.015 | 7400 | $416 | 0.030 | |
18 | -0.004 | 7700 | $428 | 0.002 | |
17.1 | -0.054 | 7500 | $439 | -0.024 | |
16.1 | -0.110 | 7100 | $441 | -0.029 | |
18 | -0.004 | 8000 | $444 | -0.037 | |
14.5 | -0.198 | 6500 | $448 | -0.046 | |
15.5 | -0.143 | 7300 | $471 | -0.099 | |
16.2 | -0.104 | 7800 | $481 | -0.124 | |
14.7 | -0.187 | 7100 | $483 | -0.127 | |
13.7 | -0.242 | 7000 | $511 | -0.193 | |
12.2 | -0.325 | 6800 | $557 | -0.301 |
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Relative Position Value per Dollar gives us a very clear picture of where the volume is, but that’s just a starting point. Obviously, there are significant matchup considerations at play for these QB’s that effect their status as well. Colin Kaepernick is at the top of the value board last week, and some owners may pass on him based on his supporting cast. Before you do, consider this: Kaepernick is averaging 50 rushing yards per game and has 7 passing TD’s compared to just 2 picks so far in 2016. Yes, the 49ers are an awful football team, but playing from behind means Kaepernick will have garbage time opportunity and a strong shot at 2.5-3x value. Drew Brees is next on the list and despite the Rams tough front line, he’s a fantastic play as always at home. The Rams offense with rookie Jared Goff will struggle on the road to move he chains, putting stress on a defense that will be stressed out enough trying to slow down Brees and company in the dome. If Kaepernick is the GPP QB value of the week, then Brees is most assuredly the most cost effective cash game version.
Blake Bortles and Jameis Winston are discounted for a reason this week. Despite the fact both have had fantasy relevance this year, their matchups may indeed be enough to make you steer clear. Bortles on the road has an awful track record and will be playing against a good Buffalo defense in cold conditions. Winston may be at home, but the Seahawks defense has regained its mantle and will create turnovers. Of the two, Winston at home has more contrarian appeal with Mike Evans in toe to help out, but only as a secondary choice for players who run multiple lineups this week.
Tom Brady is cost very efficient this week despite being at the peak of the salary scale. The Jets secondary is in for a long day, even with Rob Gronkowski out. Russell Wilson is the strongest value of the week. He’s posted 24 or more points the last three games since his health has improved. With Wilson’s average still negatively weighted due to that slow start, he’s flying under the radar. The Tampa defense won’t have an answer for him. If his RPV was calculated with 24 FPPG average, he’d be he clear number one on this list. Eli Manning is the biggest potential let down this week. The Browns matchup will significantly inflate his ownership. Even though the Giants may win handily, the new found running game may allow them to sit on that lead and burn clock. That could inhibit Manning from the big day fantasy owners are searching for Sunday.
BLACK BOOK LINEUP WEEK 12
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QB Russell Wilson SEA $7.5K
Wilson is on a roll and the Bucs don’t have an answer for him. He’s averaging 25 FPPG over his last three starts.
RB David Johnson ARZ $9.5K, Thomas Rawls SEA $8.5K
Despite a high salary, DJ will be active enough in the passing game to return 2x value this week. Jay Ajayi will be so heavily owned that Johnson is actually the smart pivot. Rawls is the lone back standing and will not only see goal line work, but increased volume across the board.
WR Brandin Cooks NO $7.3K, Doug Baldwin SEA $6.8K, Julian Edelman NE $6.4K
Cooks in that dome with Brees is almost a lock for at least one TD. Baldwin also comes with sizeable TD upside. The Jets can’t stop anyone in the passing game let alone Edelman and Brady. With Gronk out again, he’ll see a huge target volume for a second straight week.
TE Delanie Walker TEN $6.1K
Walker is always a solid TE value with TD upside. Mariota and company are clicking on offense and he’ll always see his fair share.
K Ryan Succop TEN $4.5K
I expect the Titans to put up points against the Bears in all shapes and sizes.
D/ST Giants $4.8K
They get to the QB and have a cushy matchup against Cleveland.
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Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts On Target Fantasy weekdays at 12 noon est, The Fantasy Black Book Tues and Thurs 8-10pm est and Sunday Game Day 8-11am on FNTSY Network Radio.