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There’s a general DFS player tone to “fade” the top QB’s. However, even in GPP’s a big time QB can drop 30 points and pull you up in the standings and over the pay line. It’s true there are more ways to approach QB than other positions, but that doesn’t negate the high salaried ones. There’s also a foolish thought process to steer clear from some QB’s based on an opposing defense. Elite talent always wins out over matchup. That’s what makes them elite!
Here are the top 20 salaried QB’s on FanDuel ranked with RPVPD for Sunday’s Main Contest:
FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar | |
26.3 | 0.438 | 8300 | $316 | 0.281 | |
23.9 | 0.307 | 8200 | $343 | 0.219 | |
23.8 | 0.301 | 8600 | $361 | 0.177 | |
21 | 0.148 | 7700 | $367 | 0.165 | |
19.5 | 0.066 | 7300 | $374 | 0.148 | |
19.4 | 0.061 | 7400 | $381 | 0.131 | |
18.4 | 0.006 | 7100 | $386 | 0.121 | |
19.9 | 0.088 | 7700 | $387 | 0.119 | |
18.8 | 0.028 | 7300 | $388 | 0.116 | |
23.1 | 0.263 | 9000 | $390 | 0.113 | |
Cam Newton | 20 | 0.093 | 7800 | $390 | 0.112 |
19 | 0.039 | 7800 | $411 | 0.065 | |
Philip Rivers | 17.7 | -0.032 | 8100 | $458 | -0.042 |
16.2 | -0.114 | 7900 | $488 | -0.110 | |
14.3 | -0.218 | 7000 | $490 | -0.115 | |
14.9 | -0.185 | 7700 | $517 | -0.177 | |
13.9 | -0.240 | 7200 | $518 | -0.179 | |
13.4 | -0.267 | 7200 | $537 | -0.223 | |
12.2 | -0.333 | 7200 | $590 | -0.344 | |
10.1 | -0.448 | 7000 | $693 | -0.578 |
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Tom Brady has been nasty since his return to action and at home, he’s a great value despite the high salary; as is Drew Brees in the dome. There will be some that shy away from Brees this weekend because of the Denver defense, but that just creates opportunity for Brees owners to see a lower than normal ownership percentage. Matt Ryan closes out the top 3 this week in terms of return on investment. The Eagles secondary has its moments, but they don’t have answer for Julio Jones. These three premium QB’s will give back what you put in.
If you’re looking for a contrarian play, the whole world is off the Steelers right now and with good reason. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t 100%, but a pairing with him and Antonio Brown this week would be vastly less copied than in normal weeks. Is it a cash game play? Perhaps, if you can build enough RB floor. The one QB I do approve of in cash games and tournaments alike is Marcus Mariota. In fantasy terms, Mariota has been very consistent and diverse in his ability to earn points on a weekly basis. He has 2 or more passing TD’s in all of his last 5 games and 2 rushing TD’s over that span as well. The Packers are inconsistent and Mariota has had help from Rishard Matthews of late and a rock in the backfield in DeMarco Murray.
There’s danger in the “cheap” QB’s this week returning their investment. Sure, the Saints defense is bad, but Trevor Siemian is mediocre at best regardless of matchup. The Dolphins offense is now the Jay Ajayi show, so no reason to get cute with Ryan Tannehill. Even Russell Wilson coming off a great Monday night could be a trap. The Seahawks do not travel well and their running game is a bit of a mess right now. The Patriots also had a full two weeks to prepare for them. The most advantageous QB this week though is Carson Palmer. Sure, the 49ers defense is dreadful, however Palmer and the Cardinals have been wildly inconsistent making Palmer non-factor in cash games this week in my opinion.
BLACK BOOK LINEUP WEEK 10
QB Tom Brady NE $8.3K
Brady has thrown in for 300 or more yards in 3 of his 4 games since returning and the Seattle defense is not what it once was. Look for Brady to make a statement in this prime time game that he is in the MVP conversation.
RB David Johnson ARZ $9.2, DeMarco Murray TEN $7.4
Yeah, it’s chalk. However, David Johnson is going to have his way with San Francisco and you’d be wise to get in on that. DeMarco Murray has been one of the most consistent backs all year and although the Packer matchup and toe issue have reduced his salary, it’s actually strengthened his return on investment potential.
WR Michael Thomas NO $6.4K, Rishard Matthews TEN $5.8, J.J. Nelson ARZ $5.6
I’m well aware that there are RB and WR on the same team in this LU, but you sometimes have to make concessions when going to the top of the board at numerous positions like RB, QB and TE. These are very calculated choices with Nelson and Mathews. Mathews has 5 TD’s in his last 5 games and Nelson could see increased volume whether Larry Fitzgerald plays or not. Michael Thomas is the best WR on the Saints and they’re at home in the dome. Only the ’85 Bears would scare me away from the Saints offense there.
TE Rob Gronkowski NE $8K
Gronk and Brady, playing in front of a national audience and coming off a bye. Yes, please! Seattle doesn’t travel well.
K Will Lutz NO $4.5K
Saints. Dome. Please.
D/ST Redskins $4.4K
The Vikings offense is putrid and their offensive line is going to give up sacks. I want those points. The Redskins have also allowed 20 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games.
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Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the eight-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts On Target Fantasy weekdays at 12 noon est, The Fantasy Black Book Tues and Thurs 8-10pm est and Sunday Game Day 8-11am on FNTSY Network Radio.