Tonight’s starting pitching slate is a tale of the "Haves" and "Have Nots." With Colorado in play, cash game arms will be very tricky and tonight there’s no shortage of true No. 1’s taking the hill. The question, as always, is who’s delivering the best value. Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) will expose which of these aces is truly worth the investment, as well as which arms are worth a look in GPP play. But since value is relative, I’ll break down DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s pricing separately.
First, DraftKings where one must start two pitchers. Though there’s slightly more room for error in the two-pitcher world, the position still takes up a significant chunk of budget. Here’s a look at the RPVPD for DK tonight:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
12.1 | -0.193 | $4,100 | $339 | 0.410 | |
11.7 | -0.220 | $4,300 | $368 | 0.360 | |
13.5 | -0.100 | $5,700 | $422 | 0.265 | |
13.8 | -0.080 | $5,900 | $428 | 0.255 | |
14.5 | -0.033 | $6,500 | $448 | 0.219 | |
14.8 | -0.013 | $6,800 | $459 | 0.200 | |
11.2 | -0.253 | $5,400 | $482 | 0.160 | |
14.7 | -0.020 | $7,100 | $483 | 0.159 | |
19.2 | 0.280 | $9,400 | $490 | 0.147 | |
16.1 | 0.074 | $8,000 | $497 | 0.135 | |
26 | 0.734 | $13,100 | $504 | 0.123 | |
16.4 | 0.094 | $8,500 | $518 | 0.097 | |
23.4 | 0.560 | $12,300 | $526 | 0.085 | |
26.3 | 0.754 | $13,900 | $529 | 0.080 | |
15.6 | 0.040 | $8,300 | $532 | 0.073 | |
19.7 | 0.314 | $10,600 | $538 | 0.063 | |
10.8 | -0.280 | $6,000 | $556 | 0.032 | |
19.3 | 0.287 | $11,100 | $575 | -0.002 | |
10.3 | -0.313 | $6,200 | $602 | -0.048 | |
18.7 | 0.247 | $11,400 | $610 | -0.062 | |
13.1 | -0.126 | $8,100 | $618 | -0.077 | |
11.1 | -0.260 | $7,900 | $712 | -0.239 | |
Keyvius Smapson | 4.1 | -0.727 | $4,000 | $976 | -0.699 |
3.5 | -0.767 | $5,500 | $1,571 | -1.737 |
Matt Wisler and Tyler Anderson’s extreme value is tired to their location in Coors Field tonight, so they can be respectively dismissed. That leaves us with Nolasco, Smyly and Gausman as our top three values. Nolasco in Boston versus Price is far from a tempting matchup and although Smyly will be in the friendly surroundings of Oakland, the A’s as a team don’t strike out much (27th overall out of the 30 in total K’s).
The Indians have certainly been a powerhouse over last month, but Kevin Gausman is up to the task. Despite one bad game in Boston that we can certainly forgive him for, he’s been remarkably consistent. The Orioles’ offense hasn’t given him enough support so the win total doesn’t reflect his performance. Paired with say Cole Hamels (who has a microscopic 1.84 ERA on the road and is away versus KC tonight), Gausman would make a very strong No. 2 starter on DrafKings. Scherzer at home is the most cost effective of the big money starters, with Jacob deGrom being the worst. deGrom taking on Jose Fernandez in Miami is a tough assignment.
On FanDuel, we need to target just one arm, but that can actually be a trickier assignment. With salaries and point systems differing, one pitcher may be a wise choice on one site, and a trap on another. Here’s the RPVPD for tonight’s FanDuel arms:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | Salary | Pts per $ | RPV Per Dollar |
23.9 | -0.170 | $5,800 | $243 | 0.201 | |
25.9 | -0.100 | $6,300 | $243 | 0.199 | |
36.1 | 0.254 | $8,800 | $244 | 0.198 | |
28.8 | 0.000 | $7,100 | $247 | 0.189 | |
37.3 | 0.296 | $9,300 | $249 | 0.179 | |
30.7 | 0.066 | $7,800 | $254 | 0.164 | |
42.8 | 0.487 | $10,900 | $255 | 0.162 | |
29.2 | 0.014 | $7,600 | $260 | 0.143 | |
45.3 | 0.573 | $11,800 | $260 | 0.143 | |
46.4 | 0.612 | $12,100 | $261 | 0.142 | |
31.7 | 0.101 | $8,400 | $265 | 0.128 | |
24.4 | -0.153 | $6,700 | $275 | 0.096 | |
36.6 | 0.271 | $10,100 | $276 | 0.092 | |
23.9 | -0.170 | $6,600 | $276 | 0.091 | |
30.4 | 0.056 | $8,500 | $280 | 0.080 | |
23.3 | -0.191 | $6,700 | $288 | 0.054 | |
26.4 | -0.083 | $7,700 | $292 | 0.040 | |
25.7 | -0.107 | $7,500 | $292 | 0.039 | |
21.1 | -0.267 | $6,200 | $294 | 0.033 | |
26.9 | -0.066 | $8,200 | $305 | -0.003 | |
24.1 | -0.163 | $7,700 | $320 | -0.052 | |
32.8 | 0.139 | $10,600 | $323 | -0.064 | |
Keyvius Smapson | 9.6 | -0.667 | $5,300 | $552 | -0.817 |
7.7 | -0.733 | $5,700 | $740 | -1.436 |
Nolasco and Anderson are once again ignored for previous reasons stated. Cole Hamels is an even better value on FanDuel than Draftkings and with Colorado salaries in play, he’s a terrific cash game play if you fade the big guys. John Lackey is the new name we have to pay attention to and his 36-point average is a consistent one. The Cubs should have no problem scoring runs in Milwaukee for him tonight. His opponent Zach Davies is ironically the next-best value and certainly a contrary play in tournaments. Davies has been sneaky good this year and could be an arm worthy of paring with a Colorado stack.
Chris Sale is the best of the big money boys in this structure and may be pitching his last game for the White Sox with trade rumors swirling. Scherzer and Fernandez are also cost effective with deGrom again being the biggest trap. His salary is too risky for a contrary play against Fernandez.
What’s most fascinating is that Gausman goes from fantasy darling on DK to a fantasy liability on FanDuel tonight. DFS players often make the mistake of painting with a wide brush. Just because a player seems like a good play in one circumstance, doesn’t automatically mean that logic carries over to another host site. This proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that value truly is relative.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.