Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: Catchers Beware

The biggest mistake fantasy players make is the assumption that position scarcity doesn’t matter. The second biggest mistake is that position scarcity automatically means overpaying for a position like catcher. The “tools of ignorance” can make even the smartest fantasy owner look stupid. Even an “elite” catcher like Buster Posey is not an elite player when compared to other high end ADP talent. The injury quotient at catcher is higher than any other position making them not only the riskiest of all investments, but also the lowest ceiling as well. Ask Kyle Schwarber and Travis d’Arnaud owners how they’re feeling right now.

Sure, Schwarber got hurt in the outfield, but his early round investment in season-long leagues was as a catcher. When you invest heavily in an upper level player at the catcher position and you lose them, there’s no coming back from that loss. The waiver wire can regenerate pitching, outfield and third base, for example. Some teams will have a surplus of other positions to make a deal with you. However, the catcher wire is almost always barren and a surplus at catcher on another roster is more rare than a full season from d’Arnaud (too soon?).

Using Relative Position Value (RPV), we can illustrate not only the lack of advantage to be gained at catcher, but also the overall drudge of the position as a whole. First, a look at a shallow one catcher league using a standard points scoring system.

How’s that Buster Posey ADP looking right now? In the preseason, I saw him actually go as early as the first round when actual elite talent was still in abundance. Posey’s $30 range auction value is laughable when you consider Yadier Molina cost a $1 and Welington Castillo went for around $3. What has become of the next highest catchers on the preseason auction/ADP board (after Schwarber of course)? Well Brian McCann is in the negative RPV and Russell Martin (who’s hitting under .150 on the year) doesn’t even crack the top 50 scorers at the position. The biggest problem is that the “best catcher” is the 85^th most productive player overall YTD. That means Buster Posey has been less productive than Matt Holliday, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brandon Moss.

If you think this was an ugly picture, take a look at where the two catcher league RPV bottoms out:

When the bottom of a position is at -35% RPV, that’s a huge red flag. It’s important to stay above the negative RPV line as often as possible at all times, but with a certain degree of poise. This can be achieved smartly at the weaker hitting middle infield positions. In 12 team leagues with five active outfielders and a utility slot, OUTFIELD is actually the scarcest position believe it or not. The depth of the that position pool is maxed out between the active players, the players who qualify at outfield and are being started at alternate positions and the platoon players left at the bottom of the barrel as you max out.  

Look at last year for example, when players like Stephen Vogt were in the upper echelon at the catcher position out of nowhere. The risk and year over year volatility of the position makes it a dangerous early draft investment. Catcher is a market to wait on and target at-bats when you can. Thinking you can gain an advantage by overpaying early on this “scarce position” is sheer folly. The position isn’t scarce so much as bereft of impact fantasy talent. It offers no player with elite power, speed or average in roto leagues. In the daily game, Francisco Cervelli, who has a high OBP and consistently puts the ball in play as an everyday catcher, is about as high up on the salary board as I would ever go. There simply isn’t enough to gain from catcher in any format. There is however, a lot to lose if you passed on prime time players trying to gain an advantage at a position that yields so little returns.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.