This offseason was full of high impact players switching teams. Especially when a high-scoring Guard switches team’s, it not only impacts the player, but the rest of the team as well. When I think of players with bust potential, I also take into consideration where that player is being drafted. Health is a big consideration to take into account. We may not see Jabari Parker (Torn ACL) hit the court until the All-Star break (maybe later). Parker has suffered multiple ACL tears in his young career. Is it worth spending a mid-draft pick on him with all of the uncertainty surrounding him? Here are some of the players I’m worried about entering the season.
Isaiah Thomas-G-Cleveland Cavaliers: How can you NOT be worried about this situation? Thomas goes from being the focal point of the Celtics offense to being a secondary scorer playing alongside LeBron James and Kevin Love. Let’s not forget (like the Cavs did when making the Kyrie Irving trade) that Thomas has a major hip injury. His health is the biggest question mark entering the season. Thomas has no timetable when it comes to when he will be activated and once he is back, he will be playing for a contract and will overcompensate when going to the hoop. His scoring numbers will drop and the ball will not be in his hands as much this season because James handles a good amount of possessions himself. It’s not worth the early draft pick. He will have a much shorter leash when it comes to how he handles his possessions.
Dwyane Wade-G/F-Cleveland Cavaliers: Wade and LeBron James reunite in “The Land”. He will make a bigger impact when Isaiah Thomas is out of the lineup. Is he worth early draft pick? Wade’s body continues to age and even though his mid-range game was on point last season, driving to the basket has become a challenge. Shooting three’s has become an inconsistency of his. Playing off the pick and roll has also become an issue and he doesn’t find himself as open. Wade just doesn’t move like he used to and being that Kevin Love is a good spot up shooter, it will take the ball out of his hands. He may be able to score 15 points per game, but how many games will he play in? He loves resting! It’s very hard to determine how many games he will play in. Don’t get trapped by the name.
D'Angelo Russell-G-Brooklyn Nets: Russell needed a new opportunity and that’s great he will get a chance to run with another team, leaving all of the drama he caused in Los Angeles behind him, but, with Jeremy Lin as the starting Point Guard, Russell will have to play at Shooting Guard and his shooting percentage and shot selection were bad last season. The guy barely shoots 40 percent and will have the shot-happy Allen Crabbe taking shots away from him. Lin is good at hitting the knockdown three. The Nets have a lot of shooting options and the situation would look a lot better for him if Lin weren’t on the team. Russell proved he can handle setting up the possession, but I am very worried he will overcompensate and do too much with the ball. The bigger Shooting Guards will eat him alive and force him to pass. Russell needs at least another year before we can believe in him as a legit force as an SG.
Tim Hardaway Jr.-G/F-New York Knicks: The 2017 All-Star break must have been the most enjoyable time in Hardaway’s life because he was a different and much better player coming out of the break. Hardaway’s drive, ball handling, defense and shooting all improved and got rewarded with a lucrative contract. As Fantasy GM’s we must focus on his season as a whole and he was a very frustrating player to own in the first half of the season and the Hawks had multiple weapons to fill-in when Hardaway was bricking shot after shot. In New York, the Knicks do not have a Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder-like scorer as their Point Guards will look to pass off more to him. The other issue is that Hardaway and Carmelo Anthony were not the best of friends during his first stint with the Knicks and that will play a factor in keeping the ball out of Hardaway’s hands (as long as Anthony remains on the Knicks). We absolutely should worry about a poor shot selection because the Knicks don’t have scoring depth in their backcourt and if Anthony is traded, Hardaway will be forced to shoot more and there is a good chance we can see the Hardaway from the first half of the season.
Aaron Gordon-F-Orlando Magic: Athleticism isn’t enough in the NBA if your shot isn’t falling and Gordon likes utilizing isolation against his opposition. He can jump and run, but this isn’t track and field. Gordon’s shot is still not where it should be and his issue is, he’s not good at concealing whether or not he will drive. His footwork makes it obvious because he slows down his approach when driving to the basket, often side stepping and forcing up a shot. Gordon is a solid driver when the lane is open, but clearly panics as soon as the defender steps up on him.
Ryan Anderson-F-Houston Rockets: Anderson is one of the most undesirable assets in the NBA. Anderson (like Kyle Korver) is a three-point or bust type of player. While Korver can impact game flow, Anderson doesn’t and is not strong inside. Anderson’s drive to the hoop was better a few years ago, but now he literally hangs out at the key waiting for the ball. Clint Capela has developed into a strong inside player and the other Rockets options are all good scorers from the outside and with the high-powered offense they already have, I’m worried about the ball being taken out of his hands AND his minutes dropping. He just doesn’t make a good enough defensive impact to be a legit option.
Dion Waiters-G-Miami Heat: Waiters shot was working last season, but the issues he faced consisted of what happened when his shot wasn’t falling. Waiters would either just stand around or just pass off and set screens. The Heat have a lot of scorers and they just gave Josh Richardson, who was injured at different points last season, a new contract. That shows that Waiters is just a stopgap and unless both Richardson and Justise Winslow (or other Heat Guard-Forwards get hurt), if the shot isn’t falling, he will get the Wayne Ellington treatment and be kept on the bench. Waiters has been boom or bust for his entire career.
Patrick Beverley-G-Los Angeles Clippers: When it comes to paranoia of everyone on this list, Beverley causes the least concern, however, not only has Lou Williams been one of the better combo guards in the league. Beverley is much more effective in a high-paced offense and the Clippers slow down their attack because DeAndre Jordan and even Danilo Gallinari need time to set up on the offensive side of the court. Doc Rivers also plays favorites and that was a complaint among the Clippers players as Austin Rivers was given a long leash last season. Yes, Chris Paul was out, but once he came back, Rivers would look to find a way to keep his Son in the rotation even when he would make bad decision after bad decision with the ball. Rivers will take time at the SG position as well thus taking away minutes from Pat Bev. He just doesn’t fit the scheme and Milos Teodosic will be looking to take minutes away from him.
Reggie Jackson-G-Detroit Pistons: Between the health issues and just overall regression with his game, Jackson has become a UFO in the NBA. Is he a better PG or SG? It’s very hard to tell and his shot isn’t consistent enough for the Pistons to experiment. Expect Jackson to be a pass-first PG with a limited shot selection and with the Pistons adding better defenders and shooters in the Guard department, Jackson’s minutes will be inconsistent and he will be playing from behind. There were many threats of benching from the Pistons Coaches and they were more enamored with Ish Smith last season. If Jackson is streaking in the right direction when it comes to overall production and you see him on waivers, grab him. Do not waste a legit draft pick on this guy.
Derrick Favors-F/C-Utah Jazz: Favors has strong inside ability but injuries have slowed him down and he is not as big of a threat as he once was. Every journey up and down the court looked painful for him last season and the Jazz are looking to speed up their offense especially with Ricky Rubio running the point. Even though the Jazz don’t have much competition at the position, Favors was barely able to get looks inside towards the end of the season as Rudy Gobert was able to be all over the court thus he got most of the looks inside.
Timofey Mozgov-C-Brooklyn Nets: Playing time is key when it comes to fantasy basketball and Mozgov is better when he plays fewer minutes. Mozgov is slow and one-dimensional inside. He slows down the pace of whatever team he plays for and after getting one of the most ridiculous contracts in recent years from the Lakers, it took them two games to realize they made a mistake. The Nets are looking to be more vibrant on the court and Mozgov will slow that process down and lose minutes as the season continues. He’s a very soft Center and it’s easy keeping him out of the paint.
Greg Monroe-F/C-Milwaukee Bucks: Monroe is still one of the biggest mysteries in the league as the Bucks can’t figure out what to do with him. If Jabari Parker were healthy, Monroe would play under 20 minutes per game. Monroe has inside ability, but is easy to defend as he doesn’t cut to the basket. He’s very inconsistent and will be one of the most frustrating players to own. Even with Parker still out, there’s no guarantee he will even play 20 minutes and that’s an issue because the Bucks have depth issues. He’s another fantasy UFO.
Mason Plumlee-C-Denver Nuggets: There are just too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to big man depth in Denver. Even Wilson Chandler was getting playing time at Power Forward. It’s clear that Nikola Jokic is one of the top big men in the league and will play a ton of minutes, but even the emergence of Juan Hernangomez will take minutes away from the slow but rugged Plumlee. If someone gets hurt than Plumlee will get more love in the rotation, but the Nuggets have many weapons up front and that’s why bringing him back was a very confusing concept to me.
Kelly Olynyk-F/C-Miami Heat: Olynyk doesn’t play like a true Center and the Heat signed him for his outside shooting ability and to be a decoy to draw out bigger defenders. Olynyk will get playing time to start but he doesn’t impact the game. He’s a streaky three-point shooter being asked to play Center and Hassan Whiteside will play a ton of minutes. I’m even worried about the Heat’s rookie Power Forward Bam Adebayo taking playing time away because he will help grab a ton of rebounds on the defensive end.
Allen Crabbe-G/F-Brooklyn Nets: Reports are out that Crabbe will be a big part of the Nets offense, but remember, the Nets gave him a huge contract as a restricted free agent last year only for Portland to match it. Why would Portland abandon him after one year? It’s because he was one of the most inconsistent players in the league last season. Athleticism doesn’t cut it for fantasy. Crabbe’s style of play is all over the place and I even questioned whether or not he knew basic fundamentals of the game such as staying out of the corner with the ball. Crabbe enters a similar situation in Brooklyn as he had in Portland with two guards as the focal point of the offense. It will take him most of the season to find consistency.
Marcus Smart-G-Boston Celtics: Smart’s defense improved throughout last season, but outside of grabbing four rebounds per game, the rest of skill-set is not there yet for him to be a legitimate fantasy weapon. It also doesn’t help that Isaiah Thomas got replaced with another skilled guard in Kyrie Irving plus Gordon Hayward. Smart hasn’t been able to hit 37 percent of his field goals in each of his first 3 seasons and that will not improve. In the first half of the season when Smart’s leash was a bit longer, he would dribble too much and slow down the pace on offense and it was clear that by the end of the season, Brad Stevens had enough and took the ball out of his hands and used him as a defensive specialist…at times.
Kent Bazemore-G/F-Atlanta Hawks: Bazemore has regressed over the last couple of years. His turnaround jumper when he got the ball in the high post was nauseating to watch and it felt like we were watching the game in slow motion when he had the ball. The Hawks have lost a couple of scoring weapons, but it’s clear that Taurean Prince is heading in the right direction and Bazemore is an after thought. If Bazemore learns how to play off the curl and utilize his mid-range game he will improve. His shot selection was poor last season and now with Marco Belinelli on the team, the ball will be taken out of Bazemore’s hands.
Kenneth Faried-F/C-Denver Nuggets: While Faried is tough inside and is good at getting rebounds, once he grabs the ball he has no clue what to do. His offense is as useful as Bismack Biyombo’s; awful. With the Nuggets strong frontcourt, Faried will be used as a specialist and his minutes will be monitored. Being one-dimensional on a team with players with a few better two-way players will keep him on the bench. It’s the same story every year with Faried as his offensive play only gets worse each year.
Cody Zeller-C-Charlotte Hornets: Zeller could be a very useful backup Center, but with Dwight Howard ahead of him plus Frank Kaminsky and Marvin Williams taking on the PF spots, Zeller will have to show size in strength. He got beat up inside and was injured. If Howard goes back to playing as effectively as he did prior to joining the Lakers, Zeller’s minutes will be limited. With Howard on the team, Zeller’s double-double potential goes out the window and even Nicholas Batum can get the scoring done both inside and outside and Zeller will lose out on getting plays.
De'Aaron Fox-G-Sacramento Kings: Going into the NBA Draft, it was no secret that a lot of questions still remained regarding Fox’s game as he was touted as an athletic guard who can run the floor. The Kings have a lot of Guard options and signed George Hill, Vince Carter and even traded DeMarcus Cousins for Buddy Hield last season. It will be hard for Fox to grab minutes throughout the season. Even Frank Mason will pose a small threat for playing time. Fox’s shot is highly questionable and he will need to develop it a bit before contending for serious playing time. When looking at the Rookie class, at least for the short term, he has one of the lower ceilings of the Lottery picks.